The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Rosenthal that didn’t say it would take either of them..just my own thought given his performance, age, service time and how irrational Getz is.

Getz was quoted the other day as saying Robert has the same trade value as he did in the offseason.

I said it then but it was foolish for the WS not to trade Robert this past offseason.

The minute they traded Cease they should have punted on Robert Jr. and traded him as well.

[CaptainRedbeard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t even know how you can say he’s for sure a guy for 2025.  I don’t trust him to stay healthy.

Has Crochet had other injuries beyond TJS?

I definitely don’t think you can count on him beyond 2024 IF you ride him for 180 IP + playoffs and he manages to get through that this year. But if you do sufficient load management this year, I don’t see why he’d be particularly higher risk in 2025/26.

This is what I’d do with Crochet: keep him in the rotation, but cut his pitch count in half to 50-60 pitches per start. Have Albert Suarez (or Chayce McDermott) piggyback him and only pitch in relief of Crochet, staying fully stretched out. Then, in September, start stretching Crochet back out by 10-20 pitches per start. It’d be very unconventional, but I see a number of reasons why it could work:

-Crochet would pitch about as many IP as he would in relief, but stays on a normal starter schedule. Also easy to skip/push back starts or do a short IL stint if ever needed, he won’t need to be fully stretched out.

-Crochet is pitching lower leverage early innings, but the start of games are still fairly high leverage since they begin tied. You could maximize him in higher leverage innings more as a RP, but probably wouldn’t even want him going back to back so this is likely easier for overall bullpen management, in addition to (more importantly) more predictable load management for Crochet.

-Suarez/McDermott provide length to even out for Crochet’s short starts, but aren’t the types of SPs to pitch long into games anyway, so it’s not likely taxing the bullpen more than if you had them in the rotation. They’re also RHP to follow Crochet. 

-Crochet is at almost 90 IP through 16 starts; with 10 starts around 30 IP, he’d be at 120 IP before ramping back up in September. Probably finish the year around 140 IP before the playoffs. 

I’m still not trading Holliday/Mayo/Basallo for the level of risk involved here, but for Kjerstad+ it could work. I expect the White Sox will ultimately end up trading Crochet for something comparable to Kjerstad & Norby +. I think the Orioles are well positioned with SP depth and can afford to gamble on upside. Luzardo is also very scary injury-wise and also just not anywhere near as good, and I don’t think any other SPs at their level will be available this deadline. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Has Crochet had other injuries beyond TJS?

I definitely don’t think you can count on him beyond 2024 IF you ride him for 180 IP + playoffs and he manages to get through that this year. But if you do sufficient load management this year, I don’t see why he’d be particularly higher risk in 2025/26.

This is what I’d do with Crochet: keep him in the rotation, but cut his pitch count in half to 50-60 pitches per start. Have Albert Suarez (or Chayce McDermott) piggyback him and only pitch in relief of Crochet, staying fully stretched out. Then, in September, start stretching Crochet back out by 10-20 pitches per start. It’d be very unconventional, but I see a number of reasons why it could work:

-Crochet would pitch about as many IP as he would in relief, but stays on a normal starter schedule. Also easy to skip/push back starts or do a short IL stint if ever needed, he won’t need to be fully stretched out.

-Crochet is pitching lower leverage early innings, but the start of games are still fairly high leverage since they begin tied. You could maximize him in higher leverage innings more as a RP, but probably wouldn’t even want him going back to back so this is likely easier for overall bullpen management, in addition to (more importantly) more predictable load management for Crochet.

-Suarez/McDermott provide length to even out for Crochet’s short starts, but aren’t the types of SPs to pitch long into games anyway, so it’s not likely taxing the bullpen more than if you had them in the rotation. They’re also RHP to follow Crochet. 

-Crochet is at almost 90 IP through 16 starts; with 10 starts around 30 IP, he’d be at 120 IP before ramping back up in September. Probably finish the year around 140 IP before the playoffs. 

I’m still not trading Holliday/Mayo/Basallo for the level of risk involved here, but for Kjerstad+ it could work. I expect the White Sox will ultimately end up trading Crochet for something comparable to Kjerstad & Norby +. I think the Orioles are well positioned with SP depth and can afford to gamble on upside. Luzardo is also very scary injury-wise and also just not anywhere near as good, and I don’t think any other SPs at their level will be available this deadline. 

He had a shoulder issue last year.

It’s a huge leap in workload for a guy with a history of arm issues.

I may gamble on him with Kjerstad but I don’t think Kjerstad as a headliner gets him.

[G54377]

Since we are going to need to make multiple moves, I think it behooves us to make the first one as early as possible while all options are out there.

[CaptainRedbeard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Rosenthal that didn’t say it would take either of them..just my own thought given his performance, age, service time and how irrational Getz is.

Getz was quoted the other day as saying Robert has the same trade value as he did in the offseason.

I said it then but it was foolish for the WS not to trade Robert this past offseason.

I think Getz says crazy stuff in the media and likely to open trade talks because he thinks that’s good anchoring for negotiations. It’s annoying and frankly a juvenile approach to negotiating, and as we saw with Cease it did cause it to go all the way down to the last minute before a deal.

But he did ultimately take a package for Cease that was strong but not otherworldly. (And he apparently should have taken one with Joey Ortiz that was undoubtedly on the table!). I think he knows he should trade Crochet this deadline like with Cease this offseason and will do the same.

Robert he should have dealt this offseason, but I think they were irrationally probably not ready to commit to the rebuild taking 3+ years and expected his trade value could only be impacted by getting hurt. Like, the Orioles didn’t trade Santander, Hays, Mullins when they “should” have in the lean years, because if things broke right they would be here when the team was getting competitive again (and it did). I don’t know what they do with Robert now. 

[Just Regular]

40 days out from the deadline, some outtakes from the last 10 days June 10-19:

Only 2-3 team wins: DET, TEX, TOR

Royals at Rangers this weekend with Scherzer return maybe an eventually important wildcard series.

BAL 2.49 ERA in that span is MLB-best - TEX without Scherzer and some others 6.55 in that span.

Bats, some bottom 10 wRC+'s: TEX 59, HOU 84, DET 86, TOR 87

The 2023 Rangers made lots of early strong moves and lots of late strong moves.     We'll see if Max can give them a jolt.

[CaptainRedbeard]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had a shoulder issue last year.

It’s a huge leap in workload for a guy with a history of arm issues.

I may gamble on him with Kjerstad but I don’t think Kjerstad as a headliner gets him.

Right, the shoulder issue. Obviously not a good thing, but sounds like it was shortly after coming back from TJS - not uncommon to get other minor injuries ramping back up. 

No doubt Crochet is a big injury risk as a young pitcher who has already had TJS, throws really hard, and never built up to a full MLB SP workload. But he’s now fully removed from TJS and currently showing no injury signs.  If you get creative this year in building him up, I don’t see him as more of an injury risk than any other young hard thrower who has already had TJS (which is still high risk!).

But there just aren’t going to be guys available who are young, cheap/controllable, durable and good. Crochet checks 3 of 4 boxes and the big question mark is what makes him available in the first place, as well as (likely) bringing his trade price down to a reasonable level.

I’m with you on passing if we can’t get him for Kjerstad as the headliner, I just think it’s more likely than you do that they won’t get an offer better than what the Orioles can offer with Kjerstad+. I think it’s more likely Elias won’t even put Kjerstad on the table, and in that case the Orioles definitely won’t get him. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Crochet is also a super weird case in that potential trade partners believe he can make it to the playoffs relatively safely with a load management plan, his trade value is actually going DOWN with each subsequent full start for the White Sox and making that load management for the acquiring team more challenging.

If he pitches all the way through the end of July at this pace he’s going to rack up a lot of work and you can’t put all that toothpaste back in the tube. So it makes even more sense to deal him ahead of the deadline. 

[Sports Guy]

I’d rather trade less for guys like Detmers and Braxton Miller.

[HowAboutThat]

I don’t know what he’ll cost, but I still would like to shop for Jose Soriano. The Angels need damn near everything, and they don’t need Soriano as much as they need what he’d bring back….though I have no idea what that might be.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, G54377 said:

Since we are going to need to make multiple moves, I think it behooves us to make the first one as early as possible while all options are out there.

A lot of teams will wait until the last week of July before deciding if they’re sellers or not, so all the options won’t be clear until then. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d rather trade less for guys like Detmers and Braxton Miller.

Braxton Garrett? I’d definitely be interested in him but he’s got a lot of control left, not sure MIA will move him, especially if at a discount given the bad ERA.

Detmers is a good buy low but I think the Angels are going to be a Rockies-level irrational franchise refusing to be sellers. 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d rather trade less for guys like Detmers and Braxton Miller.

Braxton Garrett or Bryce Miller?

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Braxton Garrett or Bryce Miller?

Sorry, meant Braxton Garrett.

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sorry, meant Braxton Garrett.

Garrett would be an interesting addition, his BB/9 is down to 1 and his K/9 is still above 8