The 2024 Trade Deadline

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

A SP that has been discussed that I’d be very interested in is Severino. His numbers are solid but what interests me is that he throws his best pitches (SL and sweeper) just over 20% of the time, which seems extremely low. His breaking balls have similar xwOBAS to Bradish’s last year with a solid whiff rate as well. His overall whiff rate is very low, but a lot of that is due to throwing his sinker (arguably his worst pitch) nearly 30% of the time which only has a whiff rate of 13%. He could likely be a lot more effective with a tweak to his pitch usage. 

Mets are 2 games out of a wildcard.  Steve Cohen spent a gazillion bucks and missed the playoffs last year.

Do you really see the Mets as sellers?

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mets are 2 games out of a wildcard.  Steve Cohen spent a gazillion bucks and missed the playoffs last year.

Do you really see the Mets as sellers?

Yup.  Texas is 6 GB of Seattle, but only 4 GB behind Houston.  They could be getting Jung back soon too, although I saw he had a set back.  

Elias said on that Norfolk broadcast that it takes two teams to make a deal and we're looking for pitching.  We all know Elias is a straight shooter.  

Another interesting deadline note is that Urias has a .793 OPS since May 1.  It makes some sense to sell Mountcastle and/or Urias to a contender, but what contender is trying to give up MLB pitching?

[eddie83]

Last year the Angels in August placed a bunch of players on waivers to save money. Heard a radio interview with Buster Olney yesterday complaining about that and hoping MLB does something about it. 
 

Have to see if any teams who are still in it in July and then fall out of it try the same strategy. 

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mets are 2 games out of a wildcard.  Steve Cohen spent a gazillion bucks and missed the playoffs last year.

Do you really see the Mets as sellers?

His name has been thrown about and he’s a pending FA. They also have Senga rehabbing right now. I don’t think it’s a certainty they trade him but it does seem possible. 

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Last year the Angels in August placed a bunch of players on waivers to save money. Heard a radio interview with Buster Olney yesterday complaining about that and hoping MLB does something about it. 
 

Have to see if any teams who are still in it in July and then fall out of it try the same strategy. 

Rangers and Mets would be two teams I would watch.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

His name has been thrown about and he’s a pending FA. They also have Senga rehabbing right now. I don’t think it’s a certainty they trade him but it does seem possible. 

I have still heard people saying they expect the Mets to sell off some pieces as they are still looking bigger picture.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Sticking with realistic expectations.

1. Beavers and Luis Sanchez for Tanner Scott

Sanchez is 21 and can touch 100 but has more walks than innings at Aberdeen.

2. Bradfield for Carlos Estevez

Is Mike Trout still in CF 2-3 years from now?

 

3. Norby and Baumeister for Fedde

@Chicago White Sox  said he was good with either Beavers or Norby plus someone like Baumeister.   If I’m the WS I’d take Norby but whatever.

Obviously, these can be adjusted but hopefully you get the general point.  Sure up the rotation and a big upgrade to the bullpen.  No top 4 prospects used.  Povich, McDermott, Johnson all kept.   Fedde under control for 2025.

You have a playoff bullpen.  You have a rotation that can get you through the second half and make a push for the division title.

You don’t have an ace type pitcher for game #3 in the playoffs.   We have no idea if the ace type pitchers we’ve talked about (Skubal and Crochet) will be healthy or effective (both will be in innings territory they’ve never been in before) in October.

 

The above deals give the team a solid chance without much risk.  

Seems like overpays, but that probably means it's a fair deal.  My only question would be, do we need to pay "closer" prices for both of them?  We could just get one, and trade for a non closer.  That closer tag really pumps up the asking price.  

My personal wish list is Scherzer/Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia(if Healthy), Leclerc/Chapman/Robertson.  

[CTBear]

9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Last year the Angels in August placed a bunch of players on waivers to save money. Heard a radio interview with Buster Olney yesterday complaining about that and hoping MLB does something about it. 
 

Have to see if any teams who are still in it in July and then fall out of it try the same strategy. 

Unfortunately those players may not reach the Orioles if they’re claimed before us. Last year, I believe the Guardians claimed any pitchers of value and Renfroe was snagged by the Reds. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not sure that I understand this line of thinking.

Why would the Orioles with a payroll as low as it is currently, a Major League team that is top notch, and a farm system that is this good; ever be shopping in “the cash considerations” isle?

It's certainly the bargain avenue, but I get the feeling - as I had last year - that some of these young guys who are on the MLB team, have been debuting, and are about to debut are not pieces the Orioles want to deal right now.  It's almost that they are still in their audition phase and the club isn't going to part with them until they know their full value.

There was an article last week posted on the board with the premise that we wanted to deal from the middle of the farm.  Hence the "Cash Considerations" aisle.  I don't follow other teams enough to know whether there are vet arms or players that are on the cusp of waivers that might be able to fill a roll.  Clearly not SP, but RP's maybe.

Anyway, it's just wondering...

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have still heard people saying they expect the Mets to sell off some pieces as they are still looking bigger picture.

Twitter= some people 

[RZNJ]

Just now, drjohnnyfever1 said:

It's certainly the bargain avenue, but I get the feeling - as I had last year - that some of these young guys who are on the MLB team, have been debuting, and are about to debut are not pieces the Orioles want to deal right now.  It's almost that they are still in their audition phase and the club isn't going to part with them until they know their full value.

There was an article last week posted on the board with the premise that we wanted to deal from the middle of the farm.  Hence the "Cash Considerations" aisle.  I don't follow other teams enough to know whether there are vet arms or players that are on the cusp of waivers that might be able to fill a roll.  Clearly not SP, but RP's maybe.

Anyway, it's just wondering...

Trading mid tier prospects is not in the cash considerations aisle.

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have still heard people saying they expect the Mets to sell off some pieces as they are still looking bigger picture.

In a round about way, they'd almost be better off if they didn't trade Scherzer last year.  That 45 Million they paid only bought the younger Acuna who has a .682 OPS in AAA.  

I don't think Cohen sells again.  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yup.  Texas is 6 GB of Seattle, but only 4 GB behind Houston.  They could be getting Jung back soon too, although I saw he had a set back.  

Elias said on that Norfolk broadcast that it takes two teams to make a deal and we're looking for pitching.  We all know Elias is a straight shooter.  

Another interesting deadline note is that Urias has a .793 OPS since May 1.  It makes some sense to sell Mountcastle and/or Urias to a contender, but what contender is trying to give up MLB pitching?

You trade Urias for the best minor league arm you can get.   Someone like our own Luis Sanchez.

https://www.milb.com/player/luis-sanchez-693783

[sportsfan8703]

Eflin from TB and Fedde from CWS are both options if we don't go the rental route.  

Fedde is sort of growing on me.  He made a definite change to get these results.  He ditched the Curveball for the Sweeper.  He's also healthy.  

It's just what would the cost be?

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Sticking with realistic expectations.

1. Beavers and Luis Sanchez for Tanner Scott

Sanchez is 21 and can touch 100 but has more walks than innings at Aberdeen.

2. Bradfield for Carlos Estevez

Is Mike Trout still in CF 2-3 years from now?

 

3. Norby and Baumeister for Fedde

@Chicago White Sox  said he was good with either Beavers or Norby plus someone like Baumeister.   If I’m the WS I’d take Norby but whatever.

Obviously, these can be adjusted but hopefully you get the general point.  Sure up the rotation and a big upgrade to the bullpen.  No top 4 prospects used.  Povich, McDermott, Johnson all kept.   Fedde under control for 2025.

You have a playoff bullpen.  You have a rotation that can get you through the second half and make a push for the division title.

You don’t have an ace type pitcher for game #3 in the playoffs.   We have no idea if the ace type pitchers we’ve talked about (Skubal and Crochet) will be healthy or effective (both will be in innings territory they’ve never been in before) in October.

 

The above deals give the team a solid chance without much risk.  

I like this plan and it's probably close to what Elias will do, at least in the players given up if not the players obtained.  As has been covered repeatedly, Elias is risk adverse and I think he will think it is too much,risk to take for 1 pitcher, even an ace.  I would probably do it, but I'm just a fan who wants to win really bad and haven't seen a WS winning team since I was 13.  I'm disappointed how little I remember about 1983.