Is Elias/SIGBOT and crew really good at drafting and development after the 1st round?

[sportsfan8703]

Don’t forget about Maverick Handley at C. He’s not a super prospect or anything, but C is thin in baseball, and I would not be surprised to see him bounce around the mlb for a few seasons. 

Who are the clear misses by Elias?  Trimble?  Dashbach?  Carter Young?

The jury is still out on Rhodes, Cook, Handley, Willems, etc…. 

We don’t have a big miss. Not like the miss on DJ Stewart. Or when we drafted that 3B from Vandy that I can’t remember his name. Previous regimes. 

Pitching is TBD overall. They did pretty well “drafting” from the Angels’ pitching prospects. 

Just as a funny note… Bruce Zimmerman, from the Gausman trade, will be in the MLB for some team next year. 

[Cuellar35]

19 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

It’s a fair question, although I don’t think you can discount the first round success. Rutschman was the only slam dunk gift at 1:1. It was definitely off consensus to go with Holliday over Jones, and Cowser and Kjerstad were both underslot overdrafts that look good now. And of course the competitive balance picks are still technically first rounders, but getting guys like Gunnar and Westburg there is far outpacing expectations for those picks. 

Jones was never signing with the Birds.  Andruw made that clear to Eliad.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Don’t forget about Maverick Handley at C. He’s not a super prospect or anything, but C is thin in baseball, and I would not be surprised to see him bounce around the mlb for a few seasons. 

Who are the clear misses by Elias?  Trimble?  Dashbach?  Carter Young?

The jury is still out on Rhodes, Cook, Handley, Willems, etc…. 

We don’t have a big miss. Not like the miss on DJ Stewart. Or when we drafted that 3B from Vandy that I can’t remember his name. Previous regimes. 

Pitching is TBD overall. They did pretty well “drafting” from the Angels’ pitching prospects. 

Just as a funny note… Bruce Zimmerman, from the Gausman trade, will be in the MLB for some team next year. 

Unless something surprising happens these are college misses rounds 2-4.

1. Zach Watson

2. Reed Trimble

3. John Rhodes 

4. Anthony Sevideo

5. Donta Williams

6. Max Wagner

7. Silas Ardoin

8. Carter Young (later round but bonus money of second round.

9. Hudson Haskin

Edited June 5 by RZNJ

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Cuellar35 said:

Jones was never signing with the Birds.  Andruw made that clear to Eliad.

 

[Greg Pappas]

I posted the above about a week ago, similar to an @RZNJ post prior to that.

I think most of us understand that the draft is not an exact science by any measure.  But some are better at it than others and even those who are lauded as being good at it, like Elias, may be scrutinized.  One part of my post explained my thoughts on the Elias drafts: "I'd much prefer to see higher upside HS bats get more in the mix in these early rounds."  I was specifically looking at bats drafted in rounds 2-5, which were predominantly college bats.  My reasoning is that while we've taken few HS bats thus far in Elias' tenure, the results are very strong overall; Gunnar in R2, Mayo in R4, and Hernaiz in R5.  Again, I was referring to just rounds 2-5, so Holliday and Willems would not qualify.  As well, where a player is drafted is not always based on the belief that he is the most talented player on the board.  Sometimes a team uses the under-slot strategy.  So that must be considered in some circumstances, perhaps even employed in 2020.
Here is a quick draft breakdown for Elias' drafts during rounds 2-5, ignoring pitchers, and bolded players are the ones I'd say were very good choices:

2019: R2 Gunnar-HS, R2 Stowers-College, R3 Watson-College, R4 Ortiz-College, R5 Hernaiz-HS
2020: R2 Haskin-College, R3 Servideo-College, R4 Mayo-HS
2021: R2 Norby-College, R2 Trimble-College, R3 Rhodes-College, R4 Williams-College
2022: R2 Wagner-College, R2 Fabian-College, R4 Ardoin-College
2023: R2 Horvath-College, R3 Josenberger-College, R5 Cunningham-College 

That's 3 HS bats and 15 College bats. 
I think it may be unfair to look at 2023 (and maybe even 2022) and judge too harshly, though the early returns are not promising.  Could Elias do better than what he has thus far in these early rounds (2-5)? I believe yes, despite his doing very well overall.  Hopefully he'll recognize the great choices he's made but also see that perhaps drafting more HS bats would be beneficial.  

[RZNJ]

@Greg Pappas  I wouldn’t even say we should draft HS hitters.  If we have possibly come up empty as far as a ML regular in the last 4 drafts rounds 2-4, there isn’t much to lose by going college pitching, HS pitching, or HS hitting in those rounds.   The worst you can do is pretty much what we’ve done, at least 2020-2022 and maybe even 2023.  At least in 2023 they went with the two college pitchers in 2 and 3.

[baltfan]

55 minutes ago, Cuellar35 said:

Jones was never signing with the Birds.  Andruw made that clear to Eliad.

Where did you get this from?  It’s not like the Orioles weren’t very much ascending when that draft occurred. 

[baltfan]

It’s pretty hard to hit beyond the second round. Just looking at the 2020 draft, there is one guy in the majors from  round 3.  Going back to 2018, that gives six years, there are 13 in the third round that have made it. Only 2, Pena and Raleigh are any good.  Looking at 2019, Michael Harris III is the only really hit. 
 

I do agree though it seems the Orioles are worse than others and may need to make some adjustments.  

[baltfan]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

@Greg Pappas  I wouldn’t even say we should draft HS hitters.  If we have possibly come up empty as far as a ML regular in the last 4 drafts rounds 2-4, there isn’t much to lose by going college pitching, HS pitching, or HS hitting in those rounds.   The worst you can do is pretty much what we’ve done, at least 2020-2022 and maybe even 2023.  At least in 2023 they went with the two college pitchers in 2 and 3.

There aren’t many high school hitters in the third round willing to sign for anything but for well above slot. 

[Greg Pappas]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

@Greg Pappas  I wouldn’t even say we should draft HS hitters.  If we have possibly come up empty as far as a ML regular in the last 4 drafts rounds 2-4, there isn’t much to lose by going college pitching, HS pitching, or HS hitting in those rounds.   The worst you can do is pretty much what we’ve done, at least 2020-2022 and maybe even 2023.  At least in 2023 they went with the two college pitchers in 2 and 3.

I agree with you, though my thoughts are based on the O's apparent analytics-driven preference of hitters.  I completely understand their reasoning, but, like you, would prefer other choices as opposed to College bats... or at least the types of college bats they target.  I'd even be happy to see a draft where even our first few picks were college pitchers, with some HS arms thereafter.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, baltfan said:

There aren’t many high school hitters in the third round willing to sign for anything but for well above slot. 

But there are some.  We signed Hernaiz for 400k, Creed Willems for 1 M (about 3rd round money).   Plus why can’t we go above slot in at least one of those rounds by saving on rounds 5-10?     Or we could pay slot on best college pitcher available.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Cuellar35 said:

Jones was never signing with the Birds.  Andruw made that clear to Eliad.

Then thank Andruw Jones for doing a solid for us. 

[LookitsPuck]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Like a few others, you totally and utterly missed the point and your Pollyanna viewpoint is on FULL display when you say the jury is still out on Trimble.

Oh well, I can only provide the information for discussion, not change people's minds whose minds are already made up. 

I didn’t miss your point. It was just cherry picking nonsense. Also you exclude some of the picks that were post 2020 *and* not 1st round.

Evaluating drafts 1-2 years after they happen is an incredibly poor approach especially if you’re already writing off players.

Do better.

Trimble is 23 and hurt. He may very well not pan out, but if you’re writing him off completely…hey, that’s your MO.

Edited June 5 by LookitsPuck

[RZNJ]

8 HS players/pitchers taken in round 3 of the 2023 draft.  6 taken and signed in round 4.

Edited June 5 by RZNJ

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

To give some context to this discussion, I spent some time gathering data on every team’s draft during Elias’ time with the Orioles.   Here’s a summary of what I found.

235 players drafted from 2019 to now have reached the major leagues, and they have produced 203.9 WAR to date.  That averages out to 7.8 players and 6.8 WAR per team.  Of those totals, 66 players (2.2 per team) were first rounders who produced 99.0 WAR (3.3 per team); 169 (5.6 per team) were from later rounds and have produced 104.9 WAR (3.5 per team).

The Orioles easily lead MLB in WAR produced by the players they’ve drafted who’ve reached the majors, at 28.0 WAR.  The other top teams are Atlanta 20.1, Cincinnati 15.2, Kansas City 14.8, NY Yankees 12.7, and Arizona at 12.6.   In terms of total players who’ve reached the majors, it’s SEA 14, AZD 13, ATL 13, MIA 12, LAD 11, and BAL and DET 10.

As to the 66 players drafted in the first round who’ve reached the majors, the DBacks lead with 6, while the Orioles, Rangers and Pirates have produced 5.  Nobody else has more than 3.   In terms of 1st round WAR, the O’s again easily lead with 15.6, followed by the Royals 10.0, the DBacks 9.7, Reds 7.6, and Blue Jays 7.1.  

As to the 169 players drafted after the first round who nave reached the majors,  the Mariners lead with 12, followed by Atlanta and Miami at 10.   The Orioles, with 5, are just below the 5.6 mean, and tied for 16th most.   However, when it comes to WAR, the Orioles rank second at 12.4, trailing only the Braves at 17.7.  Cleveland ranks a distant 3rd at 8.4.   

It is important to note that this is a very incomplete picture.  There are many players from these drafts who will reach the majors, but haven’t yet.  Of the 235 players to reach the majors so far, 133 were drafted in 2019, 46 in 2020 (which was only a 5-round draft), 41 in 2021, 12 in 2022, and 3 in 2023.   We know from history that eventually about 150 players per draft will end up getting some time in the majors (probably considerably less for the short 2020 draft).   

But that’s partly the point.  It will be a long time before we really know how Elias & co. did in the post-1st round phase of the 2019-23 drafts, and how that compares with other teams. For now, we know that they drafted one superstar in the second round.  The ultimate future of the other four who’ve reached the majors (Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz and Norby) is uncertain, though I’d certainly invest in some Ortiz futures. And who else will emerge as a legit major leaguer, for the O’s and other team, is hard to say.  There are tons of guys who’ve debuted but have struggled so far, who eventually will find their footing.  Check back again in a couple of years.   
 

Amen. Quantitative and qualitative. Well said.