Cade Povich 2024

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

 

Looking forward to watching that one. The Braves are still a good hitting team but not the dominant force they were last year. 

After that, he probably gets optioned even if he pitches well. There's an off day for rest, and @NYY/@HOU are not friendly matchups for him. 

[Rbiggs2525]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

Looking forward to watching that one. The Braves are still a good hitting team but not the dominant force they were last year. 

After that, he probably gets optioned even if he pitches well. There's an off day for rest, and @NYY/@HOU are not friendly matchups for him. 

The Blue Jays announcers said during game 2 that us and the Braves are tied for league lead in exit velocity. Sure won’t be a cake walk.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I don't understand. If Povich is starting again, why not just IL Bradish? Can't you backdate it to his last start? At least then you could bring up another arm.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I don't understand. If Povich is starting again, why not just IL Bradish? Can't you backdate it to his last start? At least then you could bring up another arm.

It's a 6-man rotation. 

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I don't understand. If Povich is starting again, why not just IL Bradish? Can't you backdate it to his last start? At least then you could bring up another arm.

Hopefully, Bradish is starting this weekend. And they are just going Povich once more as a brief 6-man situation. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Oh, I thought he was going to be taking Bradish's spot again.

[Say O!]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

My argument is more along the lines of the wall in Baltimore is not going to turn a mediocre LHP into an average one, even if the wall holds the ball in the park, there is a lot of damage to be done out there in ElRods corner or down the line. We've seen plenty of guys clear the wall that aren't known for their power grades, it's not an insurmountable object.

Thought it would add to conversation to look at the 2024 park factors for RHH (against all pitchers not just lefties).  

 

If expand to rolling 3yr average, OP@CY drops to 98 park factor with 141 3B and 77 HR factors.

[Just Regular]

Stuff+ readout pegs his pitches overall 17th of yesterday's 20 starters.

It did rate his cutter best of the day, with Walker Buehler 2nd. 

[RZNJ]

Eno Sarris of The Athletic

Two who might just make it

Cade Povich, Orioles

The four-seam fastball almost landed Povich on the worrisome warts list because it’s not good. It has less ride than most four-seamers and sits 92 mph, a full two ticks below league average. Stuff+ hates the pitch (73) and that lines up with the FanGraphs scouting grades (45 present value), but he’s managed to locate it almost exclusively at the top of the zone and (so far) out of the happy zones (.190 slugging against).

If you’ve read this far, the caveat for Povich will be of no surprise: His cutter looks decent, and he featured it more heavily in his second start. That pitch has more vertical and horizontal break than the average cutter, hums along at a decent 88 mph, and though it’s been hit hard so far, has better underpinnings for future success. The best news for Povich is a decent mix of three secondary pitches: an above-average sweeper, a big slow curveball, and a changeup that doesn’t have much to speak for it movement or velocity-wise but hasn’t allowed great contact so far (.200 slugging).

Povich got a 45 current command grade and a 60 future from FanGraphs, and there’s a gulf between those numbers. If he succeeds, it’s as a command-and-mix guy who throws just enough four-seamers and cutters to keep the batter guessing. This is not the profile of a pitcher who will overpower hitters with any of his pitches. It’s also worth pointing out that the league is getting better and better at hitting sweepers, which might not be a great thing for this starter, as that pitch grades out the best of all of his offerings.

[CaptainRedbeard]

54 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Eno Sarris of The Athletic

Two who might just make it

Cade Povich, Orioles

The four-seam fastball almost landed Povich on the worrisome warts list because it’s not good. It has less ride than most four-seamers and sits 92 mph, a full two ticks below league average. Stuff+ hates the pitch (73) and that lines up with the FanGraphs scouting grades (45 present value), but he’s managed to locate it almost exclusively at the top of the zone and (so far) out of the happy zones (.190 slugging against).

If you’ve read this far, the caveat for Povich will be of no surprise: His cutter looks decent, and he featured it more heavily in his second start. That pitch has more vertical and horizontal break than the average cutter, hums along at a decent 88 mph, and though it’s been hit hard so far, has better underpinnings for future success. The best news for Povich is a decent mix of three secondary pitches: an above-average sweeper, a big slow curveball, and a changeup that doesn’t have much to speak for it movement or velocity-wise but hasn’t allowed great contact so far (.200 slugging).

Povich got a 45 current command grade and a 60 future from FanGraphs, and there’s a gulf between those numbers. If he succeeds, it’s as a command-and-mix guy who throws just enough four-seamers and cutters to keep the batter guessing. This is not the profile of a pitcher who will overpower hitters with any of his pitches. It’s also worth pointing out that the league is getting better and better at hitting sweepers, which might not be a great thing for this starter, as that pitch grades out the best of all of his offerings.

I wasn’t able to watch all of his first start but in his second start, Povich was really, really good at locating his fastball at or above the top of the zone and his curve at or below the zone. I think the fact that it’s not a great fastball may get hitters to still swing at it at a high rate there, and even though it’s not going to get the same whiffs as a better fastball he’s been super effective getting pop-ups with it (which are actually an even better outcome than a whiff!). That’s why his hard hit rate, barrel rate and xERA are so low - similar to Suarez (although Suarez gets whiffs up there too). If Povich can consistently do that, work in the cutter for strikes and get whiffs on the curve, I think he can be successful even if the fastball is lacking. 

So far I’ve only really seen Povich use his sweeper against lefties, and that’s just fine. Even if the league is getting better at hitting them, that’s always going to be an effective pitch against leftie and it’s his only pitch with a heavy platoon advantage. He just needs some combination of the cutter and change to be effective in-zone pitches for him against righties because he’s going to need to live at the top border with his 4-seamer and that will make it harder to reliably get strikes that way. 

(Btw, I don’t put too much stock on the Stuff+ grades for changeups. Anecdotally, there are really very few changeups that grade well by Stuff+, the ones that do are more the screwball variety than a classic straight change without the forceful pronation. They’re very reliant on location and IMO that’s easier when you’re just trying to deaden the pitch rather than pronante for movement.)

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

(Btw, I don’t put too much stock on the Stuff+ grades for changeups. Anecdotally, there are really very few changeups that grade well by Stuff+, the ones that do are more the screwball variety than a classic straight change without the forceful pronation. They’re very reliant on location and IMO that’s easier when you’re just trying to deaden the pitch rather than pronante for movement.)

Two questions:

1) Why do you feel this way about changeups? Just curious, not a slight.

2) Do you feel the same about splitters? If not, why?

Thanks in advance.

[Frobby]

I had expected the O’s to option Povich on Thursday and bring up a reliever, but since they didn’t do it immediately, I now doubt that optioning Povich is in their immediate plans.  With Bradish/GRod/Burnes the next three nights, that lines up Povich to make his next start in Yankee Stadium.  That’s quite a vote of confidence in the young man. 

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I had expected the O’s to option Povich on Thursday and bring up a reliever, but since they didn’t do it immediately, I now doubt that optioning Povich is in their immediate plans.  With Bradish/GRod/Burnes the next three nights, that lines up Povich to make his next start in Yankee Stadium.  That’s quite a vote of confidence in the young man. 

I thought the same and it doesn’t really make sense to keep him around if they aren’t expecting him to make his next start with the big club.  

[Malike]

 

[Rbiggs2525]

He seems like someone who wants to be perfect all the time. A Solo homerun hurts a lot less than walking the bases loaded. Someone needs to help him trust his stuff.