Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Top of the rotation starters have more value than any reliever IMO. It is as simple as this would you rather have Pedro at his peak or Mariano. Pedro would have to be the answer it is simply because of the number of innings a top of the rotation guy handles for your club.

But that isn't what Liz is likely to be.

He is probably a back of the rotation guy at best and a dominant reliever is more valuable than that.

[Flosman]

But that isn't what Liz is likely to be.

He is probably a back of the rotation guy at best and a dominant reliever is more valuable than that.

I think he has a chance to be a top of the rotation starter if he is not the he will end up at the back of the Pen. With is numbers if he got the walks down I think he has a chance to be a 1 or 2. But we have been saying that about DCab forever.

[Sports Guy]

Through tonight(22 starts...12 starts for the split now):

71.3 IP...5.05 ERA....6.06 K rate...3.16 K rate...1.92 command rate...2.15 Hr rate...1.01 gb/fb ratio

[Frobby]

Putting aside the results, he just flat out pitched poorly in this game. Most of his pitches were belt-high.

[bgfield]

I didn't watch the whole game but from what I saw he just had bad pitch selection. He relied way too often on his slider which was sometimes working out for him and sometimes not. He kept throwing sliders to Pena who kept laying off of them and eventually walked him. And, as Frobby said, he left a lot of fastballs up in the strike zone.

I think the command he showed early in the season was a mirage. I've heard of hitters going on hot streaks, and I know pitchers can do the same, but I don't often hear of pitchers magically having amazing command for a two month stretch when they've never done so before throughout their careers. One would think a pitcher can either command his pitches or he can't. Why was Guthrie so sharp for two months and why is that no longer the case?

[Sports Guy]

He had good velocity tonight.

[Frobby]

His location isn't nearly as consistent right now for sure, but boy does he have a good fastball.

Pitching is like real estate -- location, location, location.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Guthrie has a 251 BABIP as a starter and it is .263 overall(by Fangraphs).

His FIP is 4.66(THT)...His DIPS is 4.45....His xFIP is 4.39.

[Sports Guy]

Through tonight(22 starts...12 starts for the split now):

71.3 IP...5.05 ERA....6.06 K rate...3.16 BB rate...1.92 command rate...2.15 Hr rate...1.01 gb/fb ratio

Through last night(13 starts):

77.3 IP....5.00 ERA...6.17 K rate....3.38 BB rate...1.83 command rate....1.98 HR rate..... .97 GB/FB ratio.

.248 BABIP as a starter.

.269 BABIP overall.

[Frobby]

Good to see Guthrie avoid the gopher ball last night. As I look at the splits you posted, I think the K and BB rates are in line with what one should expect. If the HR rate comes down, as I believe it will, he shapes up as a solid no. 3, which is where DIPS, FIP and XFIP all place him.

[JTrea81]

Good to see Guthrie avoid the gopher ball last night. As I look at the splits you posted, I think the K and BB rates are in line with what one should expect. If the HR rate comes down, as I believe it will, he shapes up as a solid no. 3, which is where DIPS, FIP and XFIP all place him.

Which is pretty darn good for a waiver claim...

[Sports Guy]

Good to see Guthrie avoid the gopher ball last night. As I look at the splits you posted, I think the K and BB rates are in line with what one should expect. If the HR rate comes down, as I believe it will, he shapes up as a solid no. 3, which is where DIPS, FIP and XFIP all place him.

I am not sure a 4.5-4.6 is a "solid" #3 or not but that is just semantics.

The HR rate will come down from this second half split but it is also isn't going to be as good as it was the first 10 starts. He is probably going to have a HR rate in the .90-1.10 area. He is showing he is not the GB pitcher many of you thought he was.

Plus, if he walks 3.5(or close to it) battiers per 9 IP, his ERA will be higher than it was early on.

And again, if his BABIP gets into the normal ranges, that will cause him to go up.

I am encouraged by the 6 IP average(close to it) and that the K rate is staying over 6 for the most part but his other numbers aren't encouraging and the K rate, while good now, is teetering on being below average.

[mikezpen]

I watched his first game against the Yankees on tv, and I never saw such command. Guthrie's throwing mid-to-upper 90's and terrific breaking pitches on the black.But recently, it's not there.

I was out the Stadium a few weeks ago when he pitched against Minnesota-absolutely dominating for 5 or 6 innings and then gets shelled all of a sudden.In about a 10-pitch span he was nailed for a couple of home runs and a couple of other hits-just completely lost it.

If he's not doing it now, could it be plain fatigue or mechanics? Seems like something that coaching could maybe address.

[tywright]

Guthrie still is not pitching effectively when he gets tired after the 6th. I think once he can overcome this, along with refining his secondary stuff, he can become a more complete #2/3 pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

I haven't gone through all of the 15 pages of this thread but does anyone take into consideration that this is the most innings he's pitched in a season before?

He once threw a 157 innings at Stanford but I'm sure he was able to cruise through some less stellar hitters during that year.

I'm not making excuses for the guy, but the stuff is there. It's not like we're talking about a soft tosser who had a hot start and now the shoe has dropped. I see no reason that Guthrie's name should not be penciled into the projected 2008 rotation along with Bedard, Loewen, and Cabrera.