Guthrie season splits

[tywright]

So, what you saying is ignore performance and only read scouting reports and his 95 MPH fastball?

No I did not say that, I said that his future revolves around how good his stuff is and we shouldn't be basing his entire future on the last 8 starts.

Man I could say the sky is blue and you would find something to disagree about

[Sports Guy]

According to fangraphs, his BABIP is up to 259 btw.

It is 246 as a starter according to baseball reference.

[Sports Guy]

No I did not say that, I said that his future revolves around how good his stuff is and we shouldn't be basing his entire future on the last 8 starts.

Man I could say the sky is blue and you would find something to disagree about

Who is basing his entire future on 8 starts?

[tywright]

You recently said he shouldn't go over 190 IP...I agree with you.

Anything more than that is a big risk IMO.

Yeah 190 is the max, but we also don't know how many winter league IP he has either. So right now he could be around 150+

He only had 142 total IP last year and he didn't pitch well in August last year either.

[tywright]

Who is basing his entire future on 8 starts?

You...you keep on saying that his 4.90 ERA over the last 8 starts is what we should expect from him in the future

[Sports Guy]

You...you keep on saying that his 4.90 ERA over the last 8 starts is what we should expect from him in the future

You should know by now that his age and MiL stats are being weighed a lot more heavily by me than these 8 starts...If you don't know that than you are crazy.

[tywright]

You should know by now that his age and MiL stats are being weighed a lot more heavily by me than these 8 starts...If you don't know that than you are crazy.

Oh I know that...you are just using the last 8 starts as more evidence to support your argument.

Hey do you think it's odd that his 2006 season in Buffalo is very similar to what his numbers are right now?

[Sports Guy]

Oh I know that...you are just using the last 8 starts as more evidence to support your argument.

And you are using his first 10 to support yours...What the hell is the difference?

Hey do you think it's odd that his 2006 season in Buffalo is very similar to what his numbers are right now?

For certain things it is odd, for others it is troubling going forward.

[tywright]

And you are using his first 10 to support yours...What the hell is the difference?

Actually more like his 1st 17 starts and spring training and his 2006 MiL season

And I don't think it's troubling. He has taken the next step to the majors and has repeated his ERA and peripherals despite having a low K rate. I find it very interesting that he's able to do this...hmmm

[Sports Guy]

SportsGuy, do you feel Guthrie's recent peformance is:

1. Due to a tired arm and loss of stuff

2. The League catching up with him

3. This just happens to be the real Guthrie.

Please rank in order if you choose more than one.

I think it is a definite combo of all of these things but i would put #1 last.

[Moose Milligan]

I think this is an excellent point that is being lost in this discussion. His splits have been brought up. His declined velocity has been brought up. Well, couldn't everything be explained by him just running out of gas like Moose suggested? He hasn't ever thrown a full season in an ML rotation before, and he's probably fatigued at this point. At this point in the season, I definitely wouldn't mind skipping him a start, or at least pushing him back, to give him a rest.

Lol, thanks buddy.

And SG, I did bring it up, you just choose to ignore it....like you do with several other good posts that people bring up. But it's cool, not like no ones noticed you do that before.

I think he's running out of gas, point blank. His velocity is down, he hasn't tossed this many ML innings before...

But why overlook the obvious when you can delve into weird and obscure stats?

[Sports Guy]

Lol, thanks buddy.

And SG, I did bring it up, you just choose to ignore it....like you do with several other good posts that people bring up. But it's cool, not like no ones noticed you do that before.

I think he's running out of gas, point blank. His velocity is down, he hasn't tossed this many ML innings before...

But why overlook the obvious when you can delve into weird and obscure stats?

I have addressed the tiring thing several times.

How about i just answer it everytime and keep repeating myself?

Would that make you happy?

Stop crying.

And why look at facts when they don't support your opinion? If he is going to tire by July/early August every year, i don't want him starting for me and i guess he isn't in the great shape he is supposedly in either.

[Moose Milligan]

I have addressed the tiring thing several times.

How about i just answer it everytime and keep repeating myself?

Would that make you happy?

Stop crying.

And why look at facts when they don't support your opinion? If he is going to tire by July/early August every year, i don't want him starting for me and i guess he isn't in the great shape he is supposedly in either.

I'm not talking about this specific topic, i'm talking about overall.

Who said he's going to tire by July and early August every year? Where's your jump to conclusions mat?

[Mackus]

According to fangraphs, his BABIP is up to 259 btw.

It is 246 as a starter according to baseball reference.

Why do you keep breaking it down into total and as a starter?

It makes no difference! If you think it does then you don't quite get what the stat means.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not talking about this specific topic, i'm talking about overall.

Who said he's going to tire by July and early August every year? Where's your jump to conclusions mat?

No one did....My point is, if he is already tired and worn down(and that started back in July), how can you have hope for him long term?

I mean, it is one thing if you go through a dead arm for a start or 2 but to already be done by August 9? That is not a good sign at all and really, i don't buy it right now. His velocity is still there.

September, maybe even the end of august, i would buy it but not right now.

You know this is really funny...All year i get blasted for saying he has been lucky when it was obvious he was...Now, the tables are turning...You see poorer performance and are searching for a reason why. The reason can't be that he was pitching over his head or just isn't as good as you guys think...No, that can't be it..Must be because he is tired! Yea, that's a good excuse to use!

So you know what, let's just forget how he ends the year unless of course he pitches well and then he won't be tired anymore.