Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Guthrie's splits since he became a full time starter:

May/June: 10 starts....72.2 IP....1.74 ERA...1.24BB rate... .62 HR rate...6.2 K rate...5:1 command rate...1.51 GB/FB rate

July/August: 8 starts....44 IP(5.2 IP per start)....4.90 ERA.....3.9 BB rate... 2.04 HR rate....6.5 K rate....1.7:1 command rate....1.08 GB/FB rate

This is through tonight.

[Lucky Jim]

He's definitely been up & down. Of course, those 8 starts don't weigh any more or less than the other 10.

Bedard certainly wasn't defined by his April/May numbers, right?

[geschinger]

Hopefully teams have adjusted and we just need Guthrie to adjust to those adjustments. But it may be that what we've seen over the last 8 starts is the real Guthrie - the one we'll see going forward.

[Sports Guy]

He's definitely been up & down. Of course, those 8 starts don't weigh any more or less than the other 10.

Bedard certainly wasn't defined by his April/May numbers, right?

I agree 100% with this whole post.

Just pointing out the stats.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree 100% with this whole post.

Just pointing out the stats.

I figured you did. His DIPS and FIP are both in the 4.1+ range - which certainly isn't bad. Be nice to see him catch his second wind, though.

I just wanted to distinguish the 8 starts from the "real Guthrie" type analysis. I don't think a 2.1 HR rate is the real Guthrie anymore than I thought a .210 BABIP was sustainable. Trying to keep a big picture perspective.

[Sports Guy]

Hopefully teams have adjusted and we just need Guthrie to adjust to those adjustments. But it may be that what we've seen over the last 8 starts is the real Guthrie - the one we'll see going forward.

Well, it certainly looks to me that Guthrie can be around a 6 K rate...That is the where i would like to see him(well prefer higher but 6 or better is enough).

The BB rate has predictably gone up...It is not as flukish as it was...Same with the HR rate...These numbers are just becoming more Guthrie like.

I am not sure what his BABIP is through tonight..It was 240 as a starter and 252 overall, so that is becoming more normalized as well.

This is what i wanted to see happen...How would his stats respond when his numbers normalized?...When they were so flukish and yes, lucky( i know, THE dreaded word), i felt it was hard to really project out his future.

[Sports Guy]

I figured you did. His DIPS and FIP are both in the 4.1+ range - which certainly isn't bad. Be nice to see him catch his second wind, though.

I just wanted to distinguish the 8 starts from the "real Guthrie" type analysis. I don't think a 2.1 HR rate is the real Guthrie anymore than I thought a .210 BABIP was sustainable. Trying to keep a big picture perspective.

Yes but at the rate he is going, that will keep going up.

And i agree that the HR rate is not "real Guthrie" but neither was the first half either. It is in between the 2.

[Fairfax Bird]

No better time to pull out the he was lucky argument than after a start like tonight. Way to be way to predictable.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes but at the rate he is going, that will keep going up.

And i agree that the HR rate is not "real Guthrie" but neither was the first half either. It is in between the 2.

They'll keep going up if he continues to pitch like he did tonight. They need not, however -- hence my second wind comment. Though I'd suspect they will - at best - stay stable.

I think you're absolutely right about the "split the difference" estimate.

[Sports Guy]

No better time to pull out the he was lucky argument than after a start like tonight. Way to be way to predictable.

You mean like the "Guthrie is the greatest" threads after the Oakland start.

No one asked you to read it....This is a good guage..Basically half of his starts this year are split up here.

[Baltoravensrule]

I'm not worried since he's not a soft-tosser. Its not like he was simply fooling people with his offspeed and living with having an 88 mph fastball (ala Bruce Chen). Guthrie has good stuff, and has a legit fastball. For me, I worry less because of that simple fact.

[Sports Guy]

They'll keep going up if he continues to pitch like he did tonight. They need not, however -- hence my second wind comment. Though I'd suspect they will - at best - stay stable.

I think you're absolutely right about the "split the difference" estimate.

While i agree that the homers should "split the difference", i am not sure the rest of his stats are.

I mean, his walk rate in the minors(if you project it into the majors) was about 4, which is where it has been.

His K rate is actually higher than i would expect but i do think he can keep it around 6 and i didn't before...He has shown me that he can do that.

[Fairfax Bird]

You mean like the "Guthrie is the greatest" threads after the Oakland start.

No one asked you to read it....This is a good guage..Basically half of his starts this year are split up here.

Look, we know that he is not as good as his 1st half. But even in the second half, when he has not been his best he has put together some good starts. He deserves one like tonight. If he puts up a good start after the next start are you going to throw the stats up again?

[Sports Guy]

Look, we know that he is not as good as his 1st half. But even in the second half, when he has not been his best he has put together some good starts. He deserves one like tonight. If he puts up a good start after the next start are you going to throw the stats up again?

You can bring this thread up and and update the stats...Or i will...Don't care.

Next start...In NY btw.

[geschinger]

While i agree that the homers should "split the difference", i am not sure the rest of his stats are.

I mean, his walk rate in the minors(if you project it into the majors) was about 4, which is where it has been.

His K rate is actually higher than i would expect but i do think he can keep it around 6 and i didn't before...He has shown me that he can do that.

Hard to disagree w/this line of thinking.