Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

He's there right now...you aren't figuring his winter league IP

How many winter league innings did he throw? When did he pitch in the WL?

[Moose Milligan]

This thread again? Are we going to see this thread every 5th day?

[Sports Guy]

This thread again? Are we going to see this thread every 5th day?

Just being fair...If i update it only when he struggles, people would cry.

Now, i update it when he does good and people are crying.

And yes, i am going to continue to update it because i am very curious how he ends the year and how it compares with the beginning of the year.

[Sports Guy]

How many winter league innings did he throw? When did he pitch in the WL?

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070202&content_id=1792453&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal

Guthrie pitched 27.3 IP this winter...So at least we have that now.

Still think he should be able to go another few starts and still not be tired.

[Sports Guy]

Ok, so now Guthrie has gotten through 20 starts, so we have an even split:

So, since July 1:

4.91 ERA....6.3 K rate...3.22 BB rate....1.95 command rate...2 HR rate.... .96 gb/fb ratio....58.2 IP.

Through last night(through 21 starts):

65.3 IP....4.82 ERA....5.8 K rate....3.03 BB rate....1.90 command rate...2.06 HR rate... .97 GB/FB ratio.

Positives:

1) His velocity seems to be good still(although i am basing this off of his starts up until last night...didn't see last night..how did he look?)

2) His BB rate is coming back down...Good to see.

3) He is averaging almost 6 IP per start in these "second 11 starts". That is up from where it was...Another good sign.

4) Despite last night, K rate seems like it should be good enough for him to be successful if he keeps the walks down.

Negatives:

1) Too many flyballs now.

2) Too many homers(goes with #1)

3) Command...Better his last few starts(again, not sure about last night...saw he gave up 9 hits though) but overall, still off compared to early in the year.

Be interesting to see how he ends the year.

So, what was your assessment of how he looked last night...I see he only threw 91 pitches. Velocity? Command?

[mikezpen]

Guthrie was in total command through 6. Then in about a 10-pitch stretch in the 7th, he totally lost it.Seems like he sometimes gets hit harder when he throws harder. When he's down around 92-93,maybe he gets better movement.

Guthrie's had a problem w/home runs all year, and last night, they hit everything in the air. Only in the 7th, those pop-ups turned into crushed fly balls. A few weeks ago against the Yankees though, he had them hitting all grounders.This is his first long stretch in the Majors, and he's still learning consistency I guess.

[Flosman]

Last night was a strange game for Guthrie he looked great until he simply looked like he ran out of gas. Maybe the innings are catching up with him a little. I still like him alot to be in the rotation for a long time. I think he will be atleast a very solid three. Hopefully we are seeing our # 2 making his Debut tonight.

[Sports Guy]

Last night was a strange game for Guthrie he looked great until he simply looked like he ran out of gas. Maybe the innings are catching up with him a little. I still like him alot to be in the rotation for a long time. I think he will be atleast a very solid three. Hopefully we are seeing our # 2 making his Debut tonight.

I hope so too but that is wishful thinking IMO.

[Flosman]

I hope so too but that is wishful thinking IMO.

Objectively you are correct. But Liz's ,in your words, predictive stats show he has the tools to be a great starter. If he gets called strikes he will dominate. He misses a lot of bats. The one thing that really has me excited about him is minor league managers saying he is unhittable when he is on. He has also progressed fairly consistantly over the past few years. While still you are correct in saying it is wishful thinking it is not unfounded hope.

[Sports Guy]

Objectively you are correct. But Liz's ,in your words, predictive stats show he has the tools to be a great starter. If he gets called strikes he will dominate. He misses a lot of bats. The one thing that really has me excited about him is minor league managers saying he is unhittable when he is on. He has also progressed fairly consistantly over the past few years. While still you are correct in saying it is wishful thinking it is not unfounded hope.

This is only partially true...The K rate is great obviously.

But the walk rate is way high and the homer rate is borderline high for the minors...He also doesn't look like he is a GB pitcher, which will hurt him a lot in the majors and in OPACY.

No, what is encouraging is that he has improved his BB and HR rate from last year while still maintaining a very good K rate.

He is also 24 already, so he was a little old for AA this year.

Lots of encouraging signs but at the end of the day, he looks like a guy who could be a dominant reliever, which is of course a great thing to be.

[Flosman]

This is only partially true...The K rate is great obviously.

But the walk rate is way high and the homer rate is borderline high for the minors...He also doesn't look like he is a GB pitcher, which will hurt him a lot in the majors and in OPACY.

No, what is encouraging is that he has improved his BB and HR rate from last year while still maintaining a very good K rate.

He is also 24 already, so he was a little old for AA this year.

Lots of encouraging signs but at the end of the day, he looks like a guy who could be a dominant reliever, which is of course a great thing to be.

He might end up being a reliever but I think the FO is correct in giving him the chance to prove he is a starter. He has more value has a starter and the move to the pen is a easy one if you are correct.

[Hank Scorpio]

Through last night(through 21 starts):

65.3 IP....4.82 ERA....5.8 K rate....3.03 BB rate....1.90 command rate...2.06 HR rate... .97 GB/FB ratio.

Positives:

1) His velocity seems to be good still(although i am basing this off of his starts up until last night...didn't see last night..how did he look?)

2) His BB rate is coming back down...Good to see.

3) He is averaging almost 6 IP per start in these "second 11 starts". That is up from where it was...Another good sign.

4) Despite last night, K rate seems like it should be good enough for him to be successful if he keeps the walks down.

Negatives:

1) Too many flyballs now.

2) Too many homers(goes with #1)

3) Command...Better his last few starts(again, not sure about last night...saw he gave up 9 hits though) but overall, still off compared to early in the year.

Be interesting to see how he ends the year.

So, what was your assessment of how he looked last night...I see he only threw 91 pitches. Velocity? Command?

I thought Guthrie had good stuff last night - he didn't really throw very many breaking balls for some reason, but his fastball was good and relatively low in the zone for most of the night. He's gotta work on refining his changeup a little bit, but whatever results he's getting, this guy has the pure stuff to be a very good starting pitcher for a long time (injuries notwithstanding). I think a little experience will do him well. He has excellent fastball control and he's very intelligent.

Man, I'm hungover.

[Sports Guy]

He might end up being a reliever but I think the FO is correct in giving him the chance to prove he is a starter. He has more value has a starter and the move to the pen is a easy one if you are correct.

I don't think is true either.

[oriole_way]

I'm not entirely on the Liz bandwagon either. Don't get me wrong, I think he has promise. But I think some people's expectations for him are a bit high.

With regards to Guthrie, I hope (like others) that his struggles have to do somewhat with his workload. Maybe that's wishful thinking. We'll see next year I guess.

Someone said that the workload shouldn't be that big of a deal since he's in great shape. While I'm sure being in great shape helps, I don't know how much it can prepare a pitcher to throw a full season's worth of innings, especially if that pitcher has never thrown that many innings at the major league level before.

[Flosman]

I don't think is true either.

Top of the rotation starters have more value than any reliever IMO. It is as simple as this would you rather have Pedro at his peak or Mariano. Pedro would have to be the answer it is simply because of the number of innings a top of the rotation guy handles for your club.