Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Why do you keep breaking it down into total and as a starter?

It makes no difference! If you think it does then you don't quite get what the stat means.

Mackus...When determining how he is doing as a starter, i am going to look at his stats as a starter.

If you don't want to, that's fine...I don't care. You can look at his overall BABIp..That is why i posted it.

However, his 333 BABIP as a reliever means nothing in regards to what his ERA and stats are as a starter.

NovaO correctly called me out in saying that if i am going to show his BABIP as a starter that i need to show his ERAs as a starter, which i am doing in this thread.

[Moose Milligan]

No one did....My point is, if he is already tired and worn down(and that started back in July), how can you have hope for him long term?

I mean, it is one thing if you go through a dead arm for a start or 2 but to already be done by August 9? That is not a good sign at all and really, i don't buy it right now. His velocity is still there.

September, maybe even the end of august, i would buy it but not right now.

You know this is really funny...All year i get blasted for saying he has been lucky when it was obvious he was...Now, the tables are turning...You see poorer performance and are searching for a reason why. The reason can't be that he was pitching over his head or just isn't as good as you guys think...No, that can't be it..Must be because he is tired! Yea, that's a good excuse to use!

So you know what, let's just forget how he ends the year unless of course he pitches well and then he won't be tired anymore.

How was he getting lucky when his arm wasn't dead? What kind of logic is that?

I'm not searching for a reason why, it's pretty obvious to anyone who's watched his last two starts his arm isn't as live as it was earlier this season. Is it not?

And it's not like there isn't a pretty large precedence of pitchers who have been relievers then found enough stamina and endurance to make it as a starter and vice versa. Smoltz, you recall, was a starter, then went to the pen and is now a starter again.

I'm not really worried, I was wondering when he was going to hit a wall as a lot of first year players do over the course of their entire first full year in many different sports.

So what?

[Sports Guy]

How was he getting lucky when his arm wasn't dead? What kind of logic is that?

I'm not searching for a reason why, it's pretty obvious to anyone who's watched his last two starts his arm isn't as live as it was earlier this season?

And it's not like there isn't a pretty large precedence of pitchers who have been relievers then found enough stamina and endurance to make it as a starter and vice versa. Smoltz, you recall, was a starter, then went to the pen and is now a starter again.

I'm not really worried, I was wondering when he was going to hit a wall as a lot of first year players do over the course of their entire first full year in many different sports.

So what?

I don't recall ever seeing a pitcher hit a wall in July and never recover.

[tywright]

I don't recall ever seeing a pitcher hit a wall in July and never recover.

He hasn't hit a wall, but he is treading is unchartered waters. He's never thrown more than 160IP in a season and right now he's over than if you consider winter leagues, spring trainging and the regular season.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't recall ever seeing a pitcher hit a wall in July and never recover.

Never recover...what, for the rest of the season? For his entire career? To be banished to the bullpen?

Who's to say he can't train all offseason, get on Mazzone's throwing program, build up stamina and make it full a through year without hitting a dead arm period next year at all? Whats so insane about that?

[Sports Guy]

He hasn't hit a wall, but he is treading is unchartered waters. He's never thrown more than 160IP in a season and right now he's over than if you consider winter leagues, spring trainging and the regular season.

Ty, i totally agree with you and i agree with the rest of your post as well.

MM is making it sound like we shouldn't even judge him the rest of the year because he is tired.

He is making excuses for him now even though he was one to jump on me for finding excuses for him early in the year. Double standard if i ever saw one.

[Sports Guy]

Never recover...what, for the rest of the season? For his entire career? To be banished to the bullpen?

Who's to say he can't train all offseason, get on Mazzone's throwing program, build up stamina and make it full a through year without hitting a dead arm period next year at all? Whats so insane about that?

I am talking about for the season...Stop being so damn dramatic.

He is already supposedly the best conditioned athlete on the team, so your theory holds very little water IMO.

He should still be able to pitch well enough, without being overly tired, for another 5 starts or so...After that, i agree with what you are saying.

[Moose Milligan]

Ty, i totally agree with you and i agree with the rest of your post as well.

MM is making it sound like we shouldn't even judge him the rest of the year because he is tired.

He is making excuses for him now even though he was one to jump on me for finding excuses for him early in the year. Double standard if i ever saw one.

Where'd I say that? I'm just saying it's not a fair comparison to hop all over the stats when it's clear he doesn't have his right stuff. If he had the stuff he had back in June and he's getting bombed all of a sudden, thats one thing, but this is something else entirely altogether.

It's not a secret you've been chomping at the bit waiting for him to hit a rough patch so you can beat your chest and say you were right. So you wait to pick on him when he has a dead arm and a few bad starts after throwing more innings in one year than he has in any other? Brilliant.

[Moose Milligan]

I am talking about for the season...Stop being so damn dramatic.

He is already supposedly the best conditioned athlete on the team, so your theory holds very little water IMO.

He should still be able to pitch well enough, without being overly tired, for another 5 starts or so...After that, i agree with what you are saying.

I wasn't being dramatic, I was asking you to be specific.

You can be highly conditioned yet not be conditioned but as pointed out he's in unchartered waters...

[Sports Guy]

Where'd I say that? I'm just saying it's not a fair comparison to hop all over the stats when it's clear he doesn't have his right stuff. If he had the stuff he had back in June and he's getting bombed all of a sudden, thats one thing, but this is something else entirely altogether.

It's not a secret you've been chomping at the bit waiting for him to hit a rough patch so you can beat your chest and say you were right. So you wait to pick on him when he has a dead arm and a few bad starts after throwing more innings in one year than he has in any other? Brilliant.

Maybe his stuff from early on was better than what it normally is? Ever think about that?

You are right MM...No warning signs for Guthrie at all...Everyone, he will be fine. Ignore the second half of his season this far, his MiL stats and his age...He is obviously just tired and is headed for the HOF!

[Sports Guy]

I wasn't being dramatic, I was asking you to be specific.

You can be highly conditioned yet not be conditioned but as pointed out he's in unchartered waters...

He isn't really in uncharted waters though.....He has thrown this many innings before.

He should be able to throw 170 innings with no problem.

[Moose Milligan]

Maybe his stuff from early on was better than what it normally is? Ever think about that?

You are right MM...No warning signs for Guthrie at all...Everyone, he will be fine. Ignore the second half of his season this far, his MiL stats and his age...He is obviously just tired and is headed for the HOF!

What, all of a sudden he dipped his arm into some magic Mormon water and all of a sudden his fastball was hitting 97 for a few months?

Stop being so melodramatic, I'm not saying he's headed to the HoF, I'm saying it's pathetic that you've been rooting for this guy to hit a rough patch so you can jump up and down and say you were right the whole time and laugh at everyone else who thought Guthrie was going to turn into something great.

I'm glad the argument has boiled down to this, since it's pretty obvious that you're grasping at straws here given the lame reason in your first paragraph here and then your melodramatic/sarcastic retort in the 2nd.

That said, I'm declaring myself the Winner of the Thread and moving on.

<img src = "http://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/lincoln-memorial/images/iwo-jima-flag.gif">

[Dr. FLK]

Ty, i totally agree with you and i agree with the rest of your post as well.

MM is making it sound like we shouldn't even judge him the rest of the year because he is tired.

He is making excuses for him now even though he was one to jump on me for finding excuses for him early in the year. Double standard if i ever saw one.

Yeah, I mean pitchers never go through dead arm periods. Moreover, they never get tired when completing their first full season as an ML starter.

Maybe he isn't going through a dead arm period, and this is the real Guts. But, maybe he is. He has thrown 134IP this season, which is about 120 more than he has ever thrown in the bigs. Moose is looking for excuses for him just as much as you are looking to prove you're right about him being a fluke early in the season. Time will tell who is right. But, it seems a bit ludicrous to completely dismiss the fact that his arm may be tiring.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I mean pitchers never go through dead arm periods. Moreover, they never get tired when completing their first full season as an ML starter.

Maybe he isn't going through a dead arm period, and this is the real Guts. But, maybe he is. He has thrown 134IP this season, which is about 120 more than he has ever thrown in the bigs. Moose is looking for excuses for him just as much as you are looking to prove you're right about him being a fluke early in the season. Time will tell who is right. But, it seems a bit ludicrous to completely dismiss the fact that his arm may be tiring.

Dead arm periods don't normally last 6 weeks.

[Dr. FLK]

Dead arm periods don't normally last 6 weeks.

True. But, I'm not going to dismiss the fact that he's tiring after a long season with more IP than he's used to throwing at the ML level. I didn't say it's definitely the reason, but it's an option. Only time will tell.