Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Haha ok, a typical SG answer without actually answeringI bet his BABIP during his 4.70 ERA splits would be around 3.10. HAHA

So i am just supposed to base it on that one thing?

Fine, here is my answer...His stats in 1./3 of the season certainly look to be abnormal. I would put a lot more weight in the totals for 2/3 of the season.

Any reasonable and knowledgable person would want to see more though.

I guess you don't fall under those titles though.

[tywright]

Yea and i have said that....I am still waiting for you to acknowledge that he could go the opposite way of what you think he will.

You have NEVER done that.

Maybe because I'm optimistic that his scouting report when he got drafted might actually have some merit

[Mackus]

Haha ok, a typical SG answer without actually answering

I bet his BABIP during his 4.70 ERA splits would be around 3.10. HAHA

Was a bit bored, so I figured it out.

OVer his last 8 starts (including last night) he's faced 204 batters. He's had 19 walks, 32 Ks, 10 HR, and 49 Hits. So there were 39 hits on balls in play (49 hits - 10 HR), and there were 143 balls in play (204 batters faced - 19 BB - 32 K - 10 HR). Thats good for a BABIP of .273 (although it might be a bit higher since the game logs don't list HBP, which would reduce the # of balls in play and drive up the BABIP just a tad).

[Say O!]

You two can continue the pissing match, but I still will maintain that the biggest determinant of Guthrie's projection will be his "stuff": namely, his fastball velocity and the bite on his breaking ball.

Keep arguing about stats and trying to project - but realize they are the direct byproduct of his stuff. We should be debating who is the REAL Guthrie: the 95-96mph guy in May/June or the 90-91mph guy in July/August?

[tywright]

So i am just supposed to base it on that one thing?

Fine, here is my answer...His stats in 1./3 of the season certainly look to be abnormal. I would put a lot more weight in the totals for 2/3 of the season.

Any reasonable and knowledgable person would want to see more though.

I guess you don't fall under those titles though.

He has pitched well in over 2/3 of his starts, not 1/3. Of course I would like to see him continue to pitch well so I can be more sure he can realize this success over the long term. You on the other hand have been waiting for him to fail so you can start spouting off saying that you were always right and that he's a fluke.

[tywright]

Any reasonable and knowledgable person would want to see more though.

I guess you don't fall under those titles though.

You know that's not true. At least we know we can put you under the category as rude and stubborn

[tywright]

Was a bit bored, so I figured it out.

OVer his last 8 starts (including last night) he's faced 204 batters. He's had 19 walks, 32 Ks, 10 HR, and 49 Hits. So there were 39 hits on balls in play (49 hits - 10 HR), and there were 143 balls in play (204 batters faced - 19 BB - 32 K - 10 HR). Thats good for a BABIP of .273 (although it might be a bit higher since the game logs don't list HBP, which would reduce the # of balls in play and drive up the BABIP just a tad).

I wish there was a site, like Baseball Musing, that actually calculated BABIP in the game logs. Best I can find is .320 BABIP over last 28 days according to Baseball Reference

[tywright]

You two can continue the pissing match, but I still will maintain that the biggest determinant of Guthrie's projection will be his "stuff": namely, his fastball velocity and the bite on his breaking ball.

Keep arguing about stats and trying to project - but realize they are the direct byproduct of his stuff. We should be debating who is the REAL Guthrie: the 95-96mph guy in May/June or the 90-91mph guy in July/August?

That's my main argument as well, but SG wants to talk splits. I've stated that the real point of the thread is that splits shouldn't matter and that Guts potential revolves around his stuff.

[Dr. FLK]

I think he's getting tired...he hasn't thrown this many big league innings before.

I think this is an excellent point that is being lost in this discussion. His splits have been brought up. His declined velocity has been brought up. Well, couldn't everything be explained by him just running out of gas like Moose suggested? He hasn't ever thrown a full season in an ML rotation before, and he's probably fatigued at this point. At this point in the season, I definitely wouldn't mind skipping him a start, or at least pushing him back, to give him a rest.

[Sports Guy]

That's my main argument as well, but SG wants to talk splits. I've stated that the real point of the thread is that splits shouldn't matter and that Guts potential revolves around his stuff.

I have addressed his stuff plenty of times...His secondary pitches ar every inconsistent..They can be very good or very poor.

You have mentioned the decrease in velocity in this thread.

I have always said his fastball is a plus pitch and it has very good movement. However, if he isn't going to command it as well(which he hasn't been), that takes a lot away from it.

[Sports Guy]

I think this is an excellent point that is being lost in this discussion. His splits have been brought up. His declined velocity has been brought up. Well, couldn't everything be explained by him just running out of gas like Moose suggested? He hasn't ever thrown a full season in an ML rotation before, and he's probably fatigued at this point. At this point in the season, I definitely wouldn't mind skipping him a start, or at least pushing him back, to give him a rest.

It hasn't been brought up in this thread but it has been brought up a lot.

And it is possible but he has thrown more innings in a season than he has this year thus far(albeit the ML innings are obviously tougher than the MiL innings) and as well conditioned as he is, should he be showing signs of struggling half way through the year?

I mean, i could understand struggling in Sept, like Nick did last year but starting in July?

[sevens]

Fluke or no fluke. Guthrie has been a winfall for the Orioles this season. Worse case scenario,: Guthrie moves on the O's get little or nothing for him. Not like they spent that much in the first place.

Guthrie has performed very well over all given the price tag.

Personally he has been a pleasure to watch.

I hope he shakes out in the middle of where he started the season & how he is pitching now.

Wait and see that is our role

[Sports Guy]

That's my main argument as well, but SG wants to talk splits. I've stated that the real point of the thread is that splits shouldn't matter and that Guts potential revolves around his stuff.

So, what you saying is ignore performance and only read scouting reports and his 95 MPH fastball?

[tywright]

It hasn't been brought up in this thread but it has been brought up a lot.

And it is possible but he has thrown more innings in a season than he has this year thus far(albeit the ML innings are obviously tougher than the MiL innings) and as well conditioned as he is, should he be showing signs of struggling half way through the year?

I mean, i could understand struggling in Sept, like Nick did last year but starting in July?

He pitched in the winter leagues, but I can't find how many IP he pitched

[Sports Guy]

He pitched in the winter leagues, but I can't find how many IP he pitched

You recently said he shouldn't go over 190 IP...I agree with you.

Anything more than that is a big risk IMO.