5 losses in a row. Baltimore...we have a problem. Thread revisit...O's have no way to win the WS unless...

[OnlyOneOriole]

54 minutes ago, Winter said:

Everytime we lose a couple games in a row it's time to trade the entire farm system for the near future tommy johns of the league. 

No I originally made this thread last year, and continued it with part 2 on June 25 of this year. 

They are 11 and 11 since.  Not bad.  Not great.  But not going to win  a WS playing this way.

Edited July 24 by OnlyOneOriole

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Great question.  I said 2 months ago, when the NYY's were tearing it up and winning every game.....that I didn't like their team talent wise.  They have since proven me 100% right.  If you don't believe me I can show you the post I made about it.

 

Boston?  Nah.  Houston?  Nah.

 

Cleveland?  Maybe.

 

The Os with Bradish and Means and FB were a lock to go to the WS this year.  100%. I made a post about this last year and got crucified for it.   But they aren't here now so we need to adjust.  Hence why I said time to trade some of our prospects for REAL elite pitchers.  Not scrubs.  And use what we already have on the parent club to win it all.  This year and for the next few years. 

No team is ever a lock to go to the World Series. 

[Bemorewins]

7 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

That's not how this works.  I never said the only metric that matters is wins, and the performance of the pitcher is linear.  By that logic Felix Hernandez was a league average pitcher his whole career.

But 12 wins, leading the AL, I don't have to even dive into other stats to make the point.  Grayson is at least a #2, and probably more like a 1B.

What do you mean by 1B?

Are you implying that Grayson’s season thus far is on par with Burnes’ season? 

Something else?

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

No I originally made this thread last year, and continued it with part 2 on June 25 of this year. 

They are 11 and 11 since.  Not bad.  Not great.  But not going to win  a WS playing this way.

No sh-t.  

[Matt Bennett]

7 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

That's not how this works.  I never said the only metric that matters is wins, and the performance of the pitcher is linear.  By that logic Felix Hernandez was a league average pitcher his whole career.

But 12 wins, leading the AL, I don't have to even dive into other stats to make the point.  Grayson is at least a #2, and probably more like a 1B.

Grayson's ERA+ is 98. 2% below league average. 

[Bemorewins]

7 hours ago, accinfo said:

No go ahead and give your opinion.  I know no one here will stop that.  I am just going to see what happens.  However, I don’t think they should make a deal because any windows are closing that fast.  IMO holding on to the Mayo’s, Basallo, Holliday, and Kjersted assures them of more chances to win for a longer number of years then if you panic and trade 1 or 2 because you think you have to win this year or even next.  It is hard in this era of baseball to win a World Series with all the level of playoffs.  The hot team at the end wins the World Series not necessarily the best team.  I want to be good for a sustained number of years.  

I join you in having a desire to see the team sustain success over a longer period of time.

IMO that will come in part due to Elias and Sig’s drafting and development as well as Rubenstein’s financial commitment to investing in the on-field product.

I love Holliday as a prospect and think that he will be a special player. But IMO I don’t think we need to hoard all of our top prospects because if you truly believe in the front office’s talents of drafting and developing, then you have some confidence that what they have done in regards to drafting and developing non-top of the draft talents like Gunnar, Mayo, Westburg (Basallo from the international side) is repeatable in some way. They can and will find other good to elite prospects (from the position side).

However, the cost of focusing so heavily on finding that kind of talent is that we are seriously lacking pitching talent throughout the organization. Think about it. Grayson was a Duquette draft pick.

When it comes to team construction, what is more important (particularly in the postseason when you are facing elite pitching and will likely have lower output from your offense in general) - A 7th, 8th, or even a 9th hitter with a .750 OPS or the requisite pitching to keep the other team off of the scoreboard?

I’m not sure of how likely it is that we will succeed going into each October over the next 5-7 years knowing that we have to outscore our opponent in each series. Usually teams don’t bash their way to championships.

Now we can continue to pin our hopes to repeating the Texas Rangers success from 2023. But that team barely made the playoffs (90 wins) and really experienced some great fortune especially getting to face the Diamondbacks in the WS as opposed to a more formidable opponent. Our bar IMO should be a lot higher than having to rely on luck in one singular year in order to win a WS (given what it took to amass this much talent with the org).

[Moose Milligan]

Have we lost 5 in a row? 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Grayson's ERA+ is 98. 2% below league average. 

Looking at his game logs, he’s allowed 0-2 runs in 13 of 18 starts.  11 of his 12 wins came in those games, the other came in a game where he allowed 3 runs in 6 IP.   He’s thrown 3 real stinkers in which he allowed 7, 6 and 6 runs, getting the loss in all three, and also got the loss in a game where he allowed 4 runs.   His two no-decisions came in games where he allowed 0 and 2 runs.  So, I’d say his 12-4 record is a pretty fair reflection of how he’s pitched on a game-by-game level.   Going forward, he needs to eliminate the stinkers - and definitely can’t have one in the postseason like he did last year.   

[RZNJ]

53 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Have we lost 5 in a row? 

I’m getting tired of @OnlyOneOriole telling us he was 100% right when he doesn’t have the balls to admit when he was 100% wrong.   Multiple times I’ve shown a quote from 9/15/23 where he says the “Orioles will struggle to make the playoffs”.    First, he said he never said it.  Then when confronted with the quote totally ignored it twice.   If you can’t admit when you were wrong, please, please shut up about the 100% right stuff.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Many of you can poo poo this all that you want to.  And you will and that is fine.  But my OP stands true.

Unless the Os trade for at least one VERY good starting pitcher, and one VERY good reliever?  This year?  Both for more than just this year?  And sign another very good starter in the off season as trust me Burnes is not going to be resigned?

The Os are not going to win the WS this year or the next.  They just do not have the pitching.  Means and Bradish are not coming back this year or next.  FB....maybe.  That is a huge problem. 

If we don't start trading our prospects for real pitching?  We are just wasting years of Gunnar and AR.  

Yes it is a bad break that Means and Bradish and FB were injured.  But there is a reason why they have drafted position players the past 5 years.  To trade for pitching.  Time to make that happen. 

I honestly don’t think many people disagree that we are unlikely to make a World Series run this year or next without upgrading the pitching.   It’s just a matter of how much we have to give up to get it, and whether the price will be so high that we are badly hurting the long-term prospects of the team.  Elias won’t have easy choices here.  

[Bemorewins]

It is not time to panic. (We are still in first place).

However, it is time to execute the plan. (Whatever that plan is/was.)

It’s hard to maintain success or sustain any kind of winning streaks when 3/5 of your rotation is this bad. We have to be able to win some games and get some good starts in games that do not include Burnes or Rodriguez.

We as fans may disagree about the player(s) who ca or should be acquired. But I am certain that Elias sees what’s going on and knows something needs to change.

Thankfully because the Yankees have been worse than us (except while facing us) it has brought us some time to get things righted.

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

   Elias won’t have easy choices here.  

I think they're easy for him;  I predict he's not going to give up any of our big 3 at this deadline.  We'll get a middling starter like Fedde (yeah @sportsfan8703, I called him middling) and/or a bullpen arm that's solid but not elite.

Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers are all guys that probably won't be here after the deadline.  Holliday, Mayo, Basallo all stay.

Elias has been clear on a few things; payroll flexibility is paramount and so is having elite talent in the pipeline at all times.  AT ALL TIMES.  

That's called discipline and that's why he's in that seat and none of us keyboard jockey GMs are...because half of us would have a payroll of over 200 million, the other half of us would be wheeling and dealing because of some ill conceived notion that THIS IS OUR YEAR AND OMG WE HAVE TO WIN A WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR OR ELSE.

I'm pretty sure baseball doesn't work that way.  

"But Moose, the Rangers!  They shoved all their chips to the middle last year and look what happened!"

The Rangers got lucky last year.  They got hot at the right time and I bet if you played that same playoffs again last year 10 more times, they win it maybe once.  They did it with a banged up Scherzer and without deGrom.  What the Rangers did last year isn't a model...and if anyone is paying attention, they're not that great this year.  

So yeah, the way Elias sees it, I bet, is easy.  Payroll flexibility and elite talent in the pipeline.  Our future is way brighter with Mayo, Basallo and Holliday in the mix than without.  

That's called discipline.  No one here has it because you guys watch ESPN and listen to sports talk radio and are so caught up in "windows" and "we need Fedde to make a run!" or how Tarik Skubal is the second coming of Sandy Koufax and the only way we can win a World Series in the next two years is with him.  

 

[Too Tall]

I like it when The Moose gets riled! Spot on too. And to answer an earlier Moose question, It's five in a row when one to Miami is equal to four to anyone else.   

  

   

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I honestly don’t think many people disagree that we are unlikely to make a World Series run this year or next without upgrading the pitching.   It’s just a matter of how much we have to give up to get it, and whether the price will be so high that we are badly hurting the long-term prospects of the team.  Elias won’t have easy choices here.  

Our WS run this year began to sink last year. Felix, continued with Bradish, Means Wells and Coloumbe. Thats 5 pretty nice pitchers right there. Only so much you can put together at the deadline. That coupled with Holliday's rough start and Mayo not even getting a chance. We need a couple of nice Pitchers, the guys to break out of slumps and a spark from the youngster (Kjerstad, Mayo and Holliday) And getting Danny Back would be nice too.

[accinfo]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's called discipline.  No one here has it because you guys watch ESPN and listen to sports talk radio and are so caught up in "windows" and "we need Fedde to make a run!" or how Tarik Skubal is the second coming of Sandy Koufax and the only way we can win a World Series in the next two years is with him.  

 

Now don’t say no one here!! LOL