Trading for Tarik Skubal

[mrbig1]

On 7/16/2024 at 4:22 PM, Greg Pappas said:

We've discussed this topic often throughout the past month or so, with varying opinions on what the cost could be.  @Sports Guy had a yes/no poll where Kjerstad, Mounty, Bradfield, and McDermott went for Skubal, and that was fairly split.  But I wanted this to be a bit different. 

I'd like to know what your best offer would be... meaning the absolute maximum you'd agree to.  It would be the sort of offer that really hurts but could entice the Tigers to pull the trigger. 

Thanks in advance.

If we're going to give up Mounty Kjerstad and Holliday. This guy better be the second coming of Sandy Koufax.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

How is it tempting? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. 

Did you hear about those really bad 34 at bats? 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

How is it tempting? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. 

Skubal is tempting.  I wouldn’t hesitate to give up Kjerstad.    

[LGOrioles]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think it’s tempting but I’d prefer going a different route.   It all sounds great until Skubal has a tired arm or breaks down in September.   Even a healthy, dominant Skubal guarantees nothing.   If we get knocked out in the ALCS or worse or if Skubal gets injured it has the potential of the Glenn Davis trade.

I watched Skubal for the first 3 innings last night.   Impressive but not dominant.  Sure, it’s only one start and he only gave up one run but he also gave up 10 hits.  He’s not invincible and he’s headed for somewhere he’s never been before.  180+ innings.   

It’s also somewhat crazy what they’re asking for considering the most recent comparable may have been the Sale trade. Except he had an extra year of control on a team friendly deal, and had 5 previous seasons where he averaged over 200 IP per season, a 3 ERA, and 5 WAR. The Sox got Moncada (comparable to Holliday or Basallo now), Kopech (ranked at the back end of the top 100 in 2016 and closer to 30 in 2017 after the trade), Boston’s 9th best prospect, and then a guy who ranked 26th in Chicago’s system after the trade. 

Considering the uptick in pitching injuries across the league, Skubal’s personal injury history, the one less year of control, and much shorter track record of ace performance, there’s zero scenario where he warrants 2 of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad. Detroit can certainly ask for that but if that’s the case, there are other options that will cost less and still provide the Orioles with an effective #3 SP.

[OriolesMagic83]

15 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

It’s also somewhat crazy what they’re asking for considering the most recent comparable may have been the Sale trade. Except he had an extra year of control on a team friendly deal, and had 5 previous seasons where he averaged over 200 IP per season, a 3 ERA, and 5 WAR. The Sox got Moncada (comparable to Holliday or Basallo now), Kopech (ranked at the back end of the top 100 in 2016 and closer to 30 in 2017 after the trade), Boston’s 9th best prospect, and then a guy who ranked 26th in Chicago’s system after the trade. 

Considering the uptick in pitching injuries across the league, Skubal’s personal injury history, the one less year of control, and much shorter track record of ace performance, there’s zero scenario where he warrants 2 of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad. Detroit can certainly ask for that but if that’s the case, there are other options that will cost less and still provide the Orioles with an effective #3 SP.

I would rather wait till the offseason and try to get Crochet or another ace.  I would actually prefer Crochet and there is no chance the WS are keeping Crochet long term.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think it’s tempting but I’d prefer going a different route.   It all sounds great until Skubal has a tired arm or breaks down in September.   Even a healthy, dominant Skubal guarantees nothing.   If we get knocked out in the ALCS or worse or if Skubal gets injured it has the potential of the Glenn Davis trade.

I watched Skubal for the first 3 innings last night.   Impressive but not dominant.  Sure, it’s only one start and he only gave up one run but he also gave up 10 hits.  He’s not invincible and he’s headed for somewhere he’s never been before.  180+ innings.   

I agree that he is not the greatest thing since sliced bread and he certainly wasn’t at his best last night.

But he is better than what we have (maybe Burnes excluded) and probably the best pitcher that we can possibly acquire.

[waroriole]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Skubal is tempting.  I wouldn’t hesitate to give up Kjerstad.    

Just a small matter of the #1 prospect in baseball. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Who is more likely to be effective down the stretch and into the Playoffs in 2024, Crochet or Skubal? That is the first question to answer. The O's window is wide open and they need another SP to step through it.

Of the top 3 prospects, are any redundant/replaceable? For example, with Westberg at 2B and Mayo at 3B Holiday has to play CF, which he has not done, to find ABs.

What should we expect from Bradish in the future?

There's a lot of moving parts to this calculus.

[dystopia]

How many of you would trade Holliday for Skubal straight up?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Who is more likely to be effective down the stretch and into the Playoffs in 2024, Crochet or Skubal? That is the first question to answer. The O's window is wide open and they need another SP to step through it.

Of the top 3 prospects, are any redundant/replaceable? For example, with Westberg at 2B and Mayo at 3B Holiday has to play CF, which he has not done, to find ABs.

What should we expect from Bradish in the future?

There's a lot of moving parts to this calculus.

You could also say with Holliday at 2B and Westburg at his best position 3B, Mayo would slot to 1B. In that case then Basallo would be most redundant.

But I agree with the overall premise that we are going to need another high end starter next year. And if we were to somehow acquire that guy this year, it would be an incredible advantage come October.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

How many of you would trade Holliday for Skubal straight up?

I don’t want to trade Holliday and would prefer to trade Basallo (blocked at C and maybe at 1B depending on what happens with Mayo and he is the farthest away from Big Leagues).

But if trading away was the only option for acquiring an elite pitcher like Skubal then I would do it.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, dystopia said:

How many of you would trade Holliday for Skubal straight up?

I wouldn't consider it.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

 

I don't think that would net the O's Skubal and Foley but if that's a legitimate offer, you HAVE to make that deal unless there is something with the medicals of Skubal. 

I'd expect if Detroit dangled that, the O's would in fact jump on it but I'd imagine that it would require at least another piece from the O's, probably an arm so either McDermott or Povich. 

And I would do JH, HK and Povich for Skubal and Foley. 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, dystopia said:

How many of you would trade Holliday for Skubal straight up?

I begrudgingly would because the Orioles are in a World Series or bust window and Skubel is more of a need than Holliday. I also think the Orioles can internally replace Holliday easier than a ace-type pitcher which they don't have in the system currently.

[LGOrioles]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don't think that would net the O's Skubal and Foley but if that's a legitimate offer, you HAVE to make that deal unless there is something with the medicals of Skubal. 

I'd expect if Detroit dangled that, the O's would in fact jump on it but I'd imagine that it would require at least another piece from the O's, probably an arm so either McDermott or Povich. 

And I would do JH, HK and Povich for Skubal and Foley. 

Foley has value but he’s not really what the O’s need. He’s a low K guy with a really good career ERA but much worse peripherals. Will Vest would be much more attractive as a trade piece.