O's July swoon

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

O's have gone 15-16 since Kyle Bradish went down and we lost a true #3 option

O's are 8-5 in games GrayRod or Burnes have started. They are 7-11 in games started by any other pitchers in that span

It can not be overstated what the loss of Bradish means. It could ultimately mean that we trade one of our best prospects on top of everything else.

The outlook is so different if he was here right now.

[Bahama O's Fan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s also why I can’t get behind the idea that Holliday doesn’t help us this year, so you can trade him.

In good with not bringing him up right now. He needs to play more in the field and make sure the elbow is good. Multiple rain outs have not helped with this.

But his on base/walk skills are needed for this lineup right now.

 

The walking skills don't translate so easily now to big leagues since the minors use robo umps and get a consistent, accurate strike zone.

[LGOrioles]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar: 736 OPS

Adley: 541 OPS

Westburg: 711 OPS

Mounty: 553 OPS

OHearn and Santander are hitting but the bottom of the lineup is largely a black hole so often.  Cowser has been getting better results lately and you were without Kjerstad for some of the games.

But if those 4 arent hitting and you are playing McCann, Mateo, Mullins and Hays with that, the lineup is going to struggle.

 

Urias has been really good in July but out of the regulars, only O’Hearn and Santander have a wRC+ over 110. Five (or 6 if Mateo is starting) regulars have been below league average with Adley, Mullins, and Mountcastle all having a wRC+ below 60. 

Their overall stats the last month plus look pretty normal but even when they have hit well, they haven’t scored as much as they should have because they have been terrible with RISP. It’ll likely turn around but they could definitely use either Holliday or Mayo up here, especially with the recent struggles against LHP’s, and the fact that Mateo should never be starting a game against a RHP. 

The pitching is still a much bigger concern, especially the SP. Since the series in NYY, the starters have a 5.59 ERA and are barely averaging 5 IP/start. Suarez’s ERA is 6.51, Kremer is at 4.74, Povich 7.06, and Irvin 10.22. Relievers have not been much better (4.92 ERA) but most of their usual guys have pretty good peripherals besides Cano and Perez. Taking out Baker, Tate, Krook, McCann, and Irvin’s innings in that time frame and the rest of the group is at about a 3.30 ERA. 

Pretty much, the performance their fringe guys (Povich, Suarez, and Irvin in the rotation and Baker, Tate, and Irvin in the BP) have been giving them is what is really hurting. Getting Skubal would be great but they really just need to upgrade on some of these guys that don’t belong on a contending team.  

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

The walking skills don't translate so easily now to big leagues since the minors use robo umps and get a consistent, accurate strike zone.

But they translate when you have an elite batting eye..which he does.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Urias has been really good in July but out of the regulars, only O’Hearn and Santander have a wRC+ over 110. Five (or 6 if Mateo is starting) regulars have been below league average with Adley, Mullins, and Mountcastle all having a wRC+ below 60. 

Their overall stats the last month plus look pretty normal but even when they have hit well, they haven’t scored as much as they should have because they have been terrible with RISP. It’ll likely turn around but they could definitely use either Holliday or Mayo up here, especially with the recent struggles against LHP’s, and the fact that Mateo should never be starting a game against a RHP. 

The pitching is still a much bigger concern, especially the SP. Since the series in NYY, the starters have a 5.59 ERA and are barely averaging 5 IP/start. Suarez’s ERA is 6.51, Kremer is at 4.74, Povich 7.06, and Irvin 10.22. Relievers have not been much better (4.92 ERA) but most of their usual guys have pretty good peripherals besides Cano and Perez. Taking out Baker, Tate, Krook, McCann, and Irvin’s innings in that time frame and the rest of the group is at about a 3.30 ERA. 

Pretty much, the performance their fringe guys (Povich, Suarez, and Irvin in the rotation and Baker, Tate, and Irvin in the BP) have been giving them is what is really hurting. Getting Skubal would be great but they really just need to upgrade on some of these guys that don’t belong on a contending team.  

 

The Os have too many players in general that shouldn’t be on the team especially when you consider what they have in the minors.

[sportsfan8703]

We're 15-18 our last 33.  

Houston, we have a problem.  

Trades aren't a miracle cure, but Snell/Skubal, Luis Robert, and Anderson/Montas, could give us a spark.  Even the Dodgers are looking at Skubal and Arozarena.

If we want to win, and compete with the big boys, we need to make moves.  

[Bemorewins]

59 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Yup.  Everyone is so focused on the pitching, and to a point I understand it, but there has been way too much of 'I know they will hit, so I'm not worried about it'.  I get it, BUT the difference is we could potentially help the offense NOW, internally, by getting Mayos bat into the lineup.  Maybe he won't set the baseball world on fire, but I think he could top Mounty and his .553 OPS for example.  The pitching help in the minors is questionable, while the hitting help is a much more solid bet.  Yes, get some pitching via trades, but also inject some life into the lineup.  

I think it is very possible that Mayo and maybe Holliday help us score more than the 3.3 runs a game that we have been scoring lately.

But because the pitching has been so bad, even if we were to get back to say 5 runs a game (with the boast from the young players and turn around from other struggling players) we would still be loosing many games. The pitching is giving up a good bit over 5 runs a game which is terrible and almost impossible to win when you are consistently getting blowup starts through each time through the rotation.

[interloper]

Defense has been really bad, too. That missed catch from Gunnar on the throw from Adley was unacceptable. Just come off the bag, man. Catch the stupid ball. I get that he wants to remain on the bag, but the priority is catching the ball so the runner doesn't advance to third. 

Edited July 24 by interloper

[forphase1]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think it is very possible that Mayo and maybe Holliday help us score more than the 3.3 runs a game that we have been scoring lately.

But because the pitching has been so bad, even if we were to get back to say 5 runs a game (with the boast from the young players and turn around from other struggling players) we would still be loosing many games. The pitching is giving up a good bit over 5 runs a game which is terrible and almost impossible to win when you are consistently getting blowup starts through each time through the rotation.

Sure.  I'm not saying that we shouldn't also attempt to address the pitching, we should.  BUT we have problems we can fix ourselves, internally, immediately.  Trades can take time.  Promotions can be same day.  Do it.  

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sure.  I'm not saying that we shouldn't also attempt to address the pitching, we should.  BUT we have problems we can fix ourselves, internally, immediately.  Trades can take time.  Promotions can be same day.  Do it.  

The time is quickly drawing to a close. We have less than a week now before the deadline.

I’m sure that if Mayo/Holliday remain in the org, they will be called up soon. But if we don’t fix this pitching problem, I am not sure how much it is going to matter.

We are near the bottom of the league in terms of runs allowed per game for almost a month. And have been routinely lit up by weak hitting/struggling opponents (like last night). 

I don’t care how well you hit, it is unlikely that you can sustain success/winning giving up over 5 runs a game. Until that changes we are going to have a hard time putting together sustained winning streaks regardless of how outs offense performs.

Which good team is has a great ranked offense but is well below average when it comes to runs per game allowed? I can’t think of a single team who is built to succeed by frequently out scoring opponents in high scoring games.

[Frobby]

The bullpen hasn’t performed well ERA-wise while the O’s have gone 11-15 since June 21, but they really haven’t been much of a factor in the W-L.  The starters have gone 10-14 in that stretch, so the relievers have only factored in two decisions, going 1-1.   In the 15 losses, the starters have pitched 70 innings (4.67 per start) and allowed 68 ER, for an 8.74 ERA.   In the 11 wins, they pitched 65 innings (5.91 innings per start) and allowed 15 ER, for an ERA of 2.08.   

The only two bullpen decisions in that span were (1) the win by Kimbrel in the Yankees game where he allowed the 3-run bomb to Ben Rice but the O’s won on the ball Verdugo misjudged, and (2) the loss in the final Seattle game when Burnes left after 6 innings tied 2-2 and Baker and Akin combined to allow 5 runs in the 7th and 8th innings.  There may have been some other games where the bullpen made an already bad situation worse, but the bottom line is that every time the starter left the game with the lead, we won, and every time the starter left the game behind, we lost.  The pen has done a good job of preserving leads when we had them, with the exception of that Yankees game that we won anyway.   

I think Kremer is an important factor for this team the rest of the way.  I don’t think he’s pitched as well as he’s capable of.  Regardless of whether we acquire another starter or not, he needs to pitch better, and I believe he can.  Homers have really killed him this year — 24 of the 34 ER he’s allowed have come on the 14 homers he’s allowed, including four three-run jacks, all in games in which the O’s were leading or tied at the time and the homer put them behind.  He’s got to do a better job of minimizing damage.  

 

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The bullpen hasn’t performed well ERA-wise while the O’s have gone 11-15 since June 21, but they really haven’t been much of a factor in the W-L.  The starters have gone 10-14 in that stretch, so the relievers have only factored in two decisions, going 1-1.   In the 15 losses, the starters have pitched 70 innings (4.67 per start) and allowed 68 ER, for an 8.74 ERA.   In the 11 wins, they pitched 65 innings (5.91 innings per start) and allowed 15 ER, for an ERA of 2.08.   

The only two bullpen decisions in that span were (1) the win by Kimbrel in the Yankees game where he allowed the 3-run bomb to Ben Rice but the O’s won on the ball Verdugo misjudged, and (2) the loss in the final Seattle game when Burnes left after 6 innings tied 2-2 and Baker and Akin combined to allow 5 runs in the 7th and 8th innings.  There may have been some other games where the bullpen made an already bad situation worse, but the bottom line is that every time the starter left the game with the lead, we won, and every time the starter left the game behind, we lost.  The pen has done a good job of preserving leads when we had them, with the exception of that Yankees game that we won anyway.   

I think Kremer is an important factor for this team the rest of the way.  I don’t think he’s pitched as well as he’s capable of.  Regardless of whether we acquire another starter or not, he needs to pitch better, and I believe he can.  Homers have really killed him this year — 24 of the 34 ER he’s allowed have come on the 14 homers he’s allowed, including four three-run jacks, all in games in which the O’s were leading or tied at the time and the homer put them behind.  He’s got to do a better job of minimizing damage.  

 

Skubal would be great but they’re getting way too many non competitive starts right now. I’d argue adding 2 guys like Kikuchi/Fedde would help more than adding just Skubal/Crochet. Probably wouldn’t be as useful in the playoffs if you’re only rolling with 3 starters, but you also would give up a lot less prospect capital. 

They currently have 2 starters with an ERA below 4.40 that are averaging more than 5 IP/start. That’s just not good enough. 

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Skubal would be great but they’re getting way too many non competitive starts right now. I’d argue adding 2 guys like Kikuchi/Fedde would help more than adding just Skubal/Crochet. Probably wouldn’t be as useful in the playoffs if you’re only rolling with 3 starters, but you also would give up a lot less prospect capital. 

They currently have 2 starters with an ERA below 4.40 that are averaging more than 5 IP/start. That’s just not good enough. 

This team is not in danger of missing out on the playoffs. Having three elite starters would do more to maximize our chances of a deep run. If we were contending for a wild card I would agree but we would have to completely implode to miss the playoffs, to such an extent that Fedde plus Kikuchi would be unlikely to make a difference.

[DEOriolesfan]

My concern is the lack of offense against left handed pitchers. Continuously using McCann, Urias, Mateo (before injury) is a major issue. It won't get it done in October.

[LGOrioles]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

This team is not in danger of missing out on the playoffs. Having three elite starters would do more to maximize our chances of a deep run. If we were contending for a wild card I would agree but we would have to completely implode to miss the playoffs, to such an extent that Fedde plus Kikuchi would be unlikely to make a difference.

They’re not in danger of missing the playoffs but winning the division is a lot better than playing in the wildcard. And if they do play in the wildcard and advance, they may need 4 starters anyways. Skubal helps more in the playoffs but I could argue a rotation of Skubal/Kremer/Suarez (not including Burnes and GRod) is worse in the regular season than Fedde, Kikuchi, Kremer due to only having 3 quality starters rather than 4. ZiPS has both trios averaging out to 2 WAR the rest of the season, FWIW. 

Kremer figuring it out does solve a lot of issues but he’s pitched much better than his peripherals suggest the last few years, so it’s tough to decide if he’s just falling back to earth now or if we should expect better going forward. Pretty much, I think they can live with Suarez in the rotation if Kremer stabilizes. If Kremer doesn’t, it just doesn’t look great the rest of the season, even with a top 3 of Skubal/Burnes/Rodriguez.