Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[Otter]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I like Santander. He's a power hitting switch hitter and is in the middle of his first All-Star season. 

Saying that, he's 29-years old, he has career .248 avg and .308 OBP, he's slow (23rd percentile sprint speed) and he's below average or slightly below average right fielder depending on if you go by dWAR (-0.7) or statcast (-1 OAA).

The Orioles have Kjerstad ready to play RF every day. While the Orioles did trade away a lot of their real outfield depth in Hays, Stowers, and Norby, I'm ok going into 2025 with an outfield of Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad next season. 

The one wildcard in this is if they decide to really try and convert Mayo to RF which would give them that added depth if he can potentially play out there effectively. 

I think someone is going to overpay for Santander and the Orioles are in a position to not overpay for a 29-year old coming off a career year. I just don't like investing in 29-year olds unless they are super stars. The late 90s Orioles went that direction and we all know what that led too. 

I think he gets offered the QO and someone else will sign him this offseason.

Exactly.  Don't make the mistake many other teams have made and pay guys in their 30s for their past performance instead of future performance, and especially when we have a cheaper and younger replacement.

[crowmst3k!]

51 minutes ago, interloper said:

3/$60 is the number I had in my head as well and I'd do it in a heartbeat. 

I think Santander would do it too. 

[GoldGlove21]

39 minutes ago, Say O! said:

It’s going to be interesting to see what type of budget and how Elias chooses to deploy those funds.

I think ME will operate like Ravens EDC…in that he will have a price and if the market exceeds that, well then bless the highest bidder.  This will play out with Burnes and Santander.

With a guy like Eflin on the roster next year, back end of bullpen having enough quantity, there are now several options to proceed

A. highest $$$ = sign both Burnes and Santander

B. sign Santander, trade Kjerstad+Povich/McD+prospects for starting pitching (Crochet?)

C. sign Burnes, let Santander walk, Kjerstad to RF

I don't want Crochet....

[Say O!]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How many of these players will be available as FA at the end of this season?  Santander will be the highest ranked position player available in terms of WAR in the AL.  

Top FA outfielders (all leagues) =
Soto, Bellinger (likely opt-out), Teoscar H, Tyler O’Neill, Profar, Gurriel (opt-out)

In terms of which teams have $$$ to spend and potential needs, a lot may depend on how much funds goes toward the prized SPs of Burnes, Fried, opt out guys like Cole, Snell, Montgomery, Robbie Ray, Eovaldi, and trade deadline rental crew of Flaherty, KiKuchi.  The big market teams may all be chasing there instead of OF (both NY teams, SFG, Cubs).

I don’t think many GMs will value Santander as full time OF.  Maybe pursuers KCR, SFG, and Mariners?  LAA unknown.

To me, best case for Os is if extend QO and Santander takes it.  

[GoldGlove21]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I like Santander. He's a power hitting switch hitter and is in the middle of his first All-Star season. 

Saying that, he's 29-years old, he has career .248 avg and .308 OBP, he's slow (23rd percentile sprint speed) and he's below average or slightly below average right fielder depending on if you go by dWAR (-0.7) or statcast (-1 OAA).

The Orioles have Kjerstad ready to play RF every day. While the Orioles did trade away a lot of their real outfield depth in Hays, Stowers, and Norby, I'm ok going into 2025 with an outfield of Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad next season. 

The one wildcard in this is if they decide to really try and convert Mayo to RF which would give them that added depth if he can potentially play out there effectively. 

I think someone is going to overpay for Santander and the Orioles are in a position to not overpay for a 29-year old coming off a career year. I just don't like investing in 29-year olds unless they are super stars. The late 90s Orioles went that direction and we all know what that led too. 

I think he gets offered the QO and someone else will sign him this offseason.

At least we will get a pick and have some young depth to replace Santander.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, HowAboutThat said:

I wonder if the rules allow negotiation before a QO is handed out? Do some negotiation before seasons end, find out his number, if he says no to the offer, THEN you give him a QO, knowing you’ve tried your best, and he’ll turn it down?

Is that allowed? I thought negotiations weren’t allowed till ten days after the WS ended.

He can negotiate with the Orioles at any time.

He can't negotiate with other teams until he files for free agency.

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I like Santander. He's a power hitting switch hitter and is in the middle of his first All-Star season. 

Saying that, he's 29-years old, he has career .248 avg and .308 OBP, he's slow (23rd percentile sprint speed) and he's below average or slightly below average right fielder depending on if you go by dWAR (-0.7) or statcast (-1 OAA).

The Orioles have Kjerstad ready to play RF every day. While the Orioles did trade away a lot of their real outfield depth in Hays, Stowers, and Norby, I'm ok going into 2025 with an outfield of Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad next season. 

The one wildcard in this is if they decide to really try and convert Mayo to RF which would give them that added depth if he can potentially play out there effectively. 

I think someone is going to overpay for Santander and the Orioles are in a position to not overpay for a 29-year old coming off a career year. I just don't like investing in 29-year olds unless they are super stars. The late 90s Orioles went that direction and we all know what that led too. 

I think he gets offered the QO and someone else will sign him this offseason.

100% this. Many terrible contracts come from signing a guy having a career year in his walk year. Santander is a good player, but as he ages he'll almost certainly see his range decline to the point where he has to DH more and more, and his batting average will go down.  I would consider offering the OP's 3/60 deal, but I think someone is going to offer him more like 5/100. Which they'll probably regret.

Eight of Santander's top 10 bb-ref comps through age 28 would have been poor investments at 3/60. Two of his top three are Jay Gibbons and Mark Trumbo.

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, crowmst3k! said:

I think Santander would do it too. 

This is likely his one chance at a big free agent payday. I think someone is likely to give him 4/75 or 5/100. Or at least the odds are high enough that he's not likely to test the waters and just sign at a pretty team-friendly level.

[Too Tall]

23 minutes ago, Otter said:

Exactly.  Don't make the mistake many other teams have made and pay guys in their 30s for their past performance instead of future performance, and especially when we have a cheaper and younger replacement.

But do we? Mullins enters this equation as well. IMO, Kjerstad may or may not be an equal replacement to Tony. His defense is more likely Tony like though. Maybe worse. I haven't seen enough to say Big K can match Tony offensively. Looks like he could but that is a risk. I just assume Sigbot has a better read and how this plays out will be interesting. I do agree, long term deals to 30ish sluggers are a crap shoot at best. QO = No Brainer. I could live with 3 - 60 but that probably won't get it done unless Tony really wants to stay here. This off season will be as interesting as this season is. We get to see Elias with a real budget and holes to fill. Mayo could be an added insurance policy but that's a big if as well. All of a sudden, we don't have the outfield depth we use to.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

This is likely his one chance at a big free agent payday. I think someone is likely to give him 4/75 or 5/100. Or at least the odds are high enough that he's not likely to test the waters and just sign at a pretty team-friendly level.

Yeah, he has earned about $27 million in his career so far, through the end of this year.

Assuming the contract he signs next will take him to until he is 34+, it ls likely he will not earn much after (Adam Jones earned nothing in US baseball after the age of 34;  Nick Markakis earned $10 million after the age of 34;  Johnny Damon $27M;  Jose Bautista $33M, Matt Kemp basically nothing).

It is very likely that the one contract Santander signs next will account for well over half the money he earns in his entire lifetime.   He will (and should) take as much as he can get.

[ShoelesJoe]

Somehow I don't think the FA demand for Santander will all that high. His value is tied up in SLG which will likely be one of the first skills to degrade as he ages. He doesn't walk a lot and his defense is about average. Don't get me wrong, I'd love him to be on this team the next two years but after that I expect there to be a steep decline in his performance. I don't expect him to turn in to José Abreu, but I think a lot of prospective teams will have that concern in the back of their minds. 

[webbrick2010]

I have for years been posting that Santander could have a Joey Bautista (late bloomer) career track

He may be entering at stretch of 3-5 years of 45+ HRs 120+ RBI's

I wouldn't think the O's will sign him but my gut says he will earn his next contract for someone

[Just Regular]

Maybe Commissioner Manfred could goose excitement for the end of the World Series by ruling that if LAD and BAL are tied after 9 innings of Game 7, the game is decided by Teoscar Hernandez vs. Anthony Santander in home run derby.

Winner promotes to the $100M guaranteed contract level.

Cole Irvin and Clayton Kershaw pitch.     Scott Boras and Juan Soto would be on the edge of their Dodger Stadium seats!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

I wonder if the rules allow negotiation before a QO is handed out? Do some negotiation before seasons end, find out his number, if he says no to the offer, THEN you give him a QO, knowing you’ve tried your best, and he’ll turn it down?

Is that allowed? I thought negotiations weren’t allowed till ten days after the WS ended.

A team can negotiate with its own player any time.  

[Allan Bryant]

Can Mayo play RF or spent time playing that position ?   As for Kjer, I know he can’t play LF , would he be able play RF instead ?   Knowing the answers to these questions could be one of factors on Orioles need decide on Santander