Adley is in an otherworldly slump right now

[Otter]

22 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

When the final assessment of Elias is made, he will have to own the decision to pass on a multi MVP HOF player to select a catcher.

Adley has always had average or less EV and barrel % numbers. I was amazed at his start this year, but when all the dust clears he is at best a .260, 20 HR guy who apparently can only catch 2/3 of the time and really struggles to hit when also catching.

At least 6 2019 first round picks have a higher WAR this year.

Adley will go down as a huge miss at 1-1

Of all the dramatic overreactions I've seen on this site, this might be one of the worst.  Do you forget how this team completely turned around as soon as Adley was called up?  Are you really comparing Adley to Witt after Adley has the worst month of his career and Witt has the best?  You'll need to wait many more years to make these kinds of claims...

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 hour ago, Gunnar said:

i'll take this opportunity to point out that Adley's swing is weird.  he drops to one knee on almost every swing, and to me it seems like way too much wacky motion to hit the ball consistently. that being said, he was doing that when he was hitting well so i guess at that point it was working for him.

not to mention he takes the first pitch in almost every at bat so is often in an 0-1 hole. doesn't seem like a good long term strategy to me.

Yeah I have noticed that.  He rarely swings at any first pitches and I am sure that opposing clubs know that as well.  So might as well just start throwing a ball down the middle first pitch.

Wasn't it Gunnar who was doing the same and it wasn't until he started swinging at some first pitches that he really started to explode?

Whatever the issue is AR needs to hit better for this club to have any chance.  I honestly thought he was the one guy we had who was impervious to these kinds of slumps. 

[Sports Guy]

People need to come to grips with the idea that Adley isn’t the stud offensive player Os fans act like he is. This whole “he’s good for a catcher” is bs.  First of all, plenty of catchers will put up big stats and secondly, he’s supposed to be a franchise altering talent, so he should be good for any position much less catcher.

That said, he will be fine and end up with an OPS close to 800.

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 hour ago, Morgan423 said:

It worked great when pitchers weren't as aware of what he was doing.  I don't have the numbers readily available right now, but I have seen them, and for a while, he was doing significantly better taking 0-0 rather than swinging at it.

The problem is that everyone has now noticed that he was taking 0-0 far too often, and they've adjusted by just getting 0-0 over and putting him in 0-1 (and often after the second pitch being fouled off, 0-2) holes.  His recent results reflect this.

It's very much a similar scenario to if you're playing in a poker tournament.  You can play conservatively, and only enter pots with the strongest starting hands dealt to you, but if players notice that you're doing that all the time (via you only showing down strong starting hands, and your low playing frequency, as strong hands are dealt less often), they won't tangle with you when you enter pots, and the pots you take down will be tiny.  You'll get whittled out of the tournament. 

The opposite is also true, you can play aggressively, frequently going after pots with whatever starting hands you get, but after a while, everyone will notice you're playing weak hands, and they'll just wait til they get stronger hands and beat you down. 

The best players will do both a good percentage of the time, regardless of their preferred play style.  They'll play aggressively for a while, but then quietly switch over to conservative play... then vice versa.  They are going to showdown with a wide array of hands, their play has many different apparent patterns in real time... and no one is able to tell what they're actually doing at any given moment.

And so it goes for Adley.  He's going to need to adjust back, and start swinging at a good percentage of these get-me-over 0-0 pitches he's been getting from these adjusted pitchers.  He's been sitting conservative for far too long without varying his play.  He's got to go aggressive a higher percentage of the time for a while, so that opposing pitchers don't know what he's going to do. 

Did you ever watch Garret Aldestein play poker before the scandal on HCL?  He was the master at switching things up which is why he was so good.  And feared.

Agree that it is time for AR to adjust.

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

To be a bit less scientific for a moment, I had a bad feeling at the time about that Sunday Night Baseball game where our kids were the toast of the town. And it was all Lego shoes and headsets in the field and modeling dusters for the ASG voting and cool-guy interviews in the stands. Just felt like one of those moments that could be tough for a young kid to really process, where you’re making the jump from “local star” to “national superstar.”

Here’s how it’s broken down for our two superstars before and after that game (6/30).

Gunnar Before: .292/.388/.612/1.000, 179 wRC+, 5.4 fWAR (9 errors)

Gunnar After: .274/.336/.406/.742, 113 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR (9 errors)

Adley Before: .298/.354/.476/.830, 135 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Adley After: .119/.237/.202/.439, 31 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR

I guess also interestingly, both Westburg (2.5 fWAR prior and 0.3 fWAR after) and Mountcastle (118 wRC+ prior and 88 wRC+ after) also pretty much fell apart right around that date. 

 

I’m sure everyone has their own idea in their head of what started this recent collapse for our star players. Maybe it’s fatigue, maybe it was all the All-Star game stuff, maybe it was clubhouse discomfort, maybe it’s just the league adjusting, maybe it’s just normal regression to the mean. As with most things, it’s probably some combination of a lot of different factors.

But I sure can’t shake the feeling that it isn’t a coincidence that both of these guys were flying as high as you can fly coming into that Sunday night game (Gunnar had a 1.305 OPS in his prior 10 games and Adley was at .969) — and since that day, it’s pretty much been absolutely disastrous.

Good call and I have wondered the same.  They lost that night and have never really looked the same since.  Maybe a little piece of Humble pie is what they needed in the long run though. 

[gamiliel]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

I'm trying my hardest to not freak out about this. But there is not a single more important thing I would be t,rying to sort out if I'm the Orioles coaches. It's incredibly important that Adley hits in this offense. There's just no way around that fact. Without him, it's just a significantly worse offense. 

Hyde continues to bat him 2nd when he catches, but I would think about dropping him to 5th or 6th for awhile. 
 

Don't worry, I'm freaking out for you. Don't look at his defensive numbers either, it will keep you up at night. I don't know what is goin on.

[OnlyOneOriole]

34 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

When the final assessment of Elias is made, he will have to own the decision to pass on a multi MVP HOF player to select a catcher.

Adley has always had average or less EV and barrel % numbers. I was amazed at his start this year, but when all the dust clears he is at best a .260, 20 HR guy who apparently can only catch 2/3 of the time and really struggles to hit when also catching.

At least 6 2019 first round picks have a higher WAR this year.

Adley will go down as a huge miss at 1-1

I sure hope not but it's possible.  I can't really blame Elias for taking AR at 1 but in hindsight it sure does look like the wrong move.  First because perhaps we should have learned our lesson with Weiters.  The catching position is just so physically taxing.  The wear and tear.  The heat.  The bruising from blocking the ball or getting hit with a foul ball.  Even just throwing the ball back to the catcher 100 x a game can wear on you.

Remember he did the same thing last year.  Started out really well and then faded the second half.  Perhaps if and when SB is ready to catch they can move him to full time DH and 1b.  I mean he is a good catcher defensive wise but I don't think he is anything special.   And that move should help is hitting. 

[MacAdoo]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People need to come to grips with the idea that Adley isn’t the stud offensive player Os fans act like he is. This whole “he’s good for a catcher” is bs.  First of all, plenty of catchers will put up big stats and secondly, he’s supposed to be a franchise altering talent, so he should be good for any position much less catcher.

That said, he will be fine and end up with an OPS close to 800.

Agreed.  He's at the age where he pretty much is what he's going to be.  He's not going be the Buster Posey/Joe Mauer/.315 with 25-30 HR that many thought he would be and were hoping for.  He's going to be closer to .275 with 20-25 HR. 

He reminds me a ton of Jason Varitek given his switch hitting, leadership, intangibles, and good-but-not-elite output.  While it's disappointing given the hype, even those dudes are very rare and hard to come by and you take that 10 out of 10 times. 

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People need to come to grips with the idea that Adley isn’t the stud offensive player Os fans act like he is. This whole “he’s good for a catcher” is bs.  First of all, plenty of catchers will put up big stats and secondly, he’s supposed to be a franchise altering talent, so he should be good for any position much less catcher.

That said, he will be fine and end up with an OPS close to 800.

I don't know who you're talking to with this comment. I don't think anyone thinks he should be much more than the .800 OPS player you believe him to be.  

But this slump isn't just him not being a "stud offensive player", it's a Jorge Mateo-level month from a guy who the offense depends on to at least be an above-average hitter. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

14 minutes ago, Otter said:

Of all the dramatic overreactions I've seen on this site, this might be one of the worst.  Do you forget how this team completely turned around as soon as Adley was called up?  Are you really comparing Adley to Witt after Adley has the worst month of his career and Witt has the best?  You'll need to wait many more years to make these kinds of claims...

I really think that was more from his leadership abilities more than anything.  He can lead from DH or 1b just as well. 

I mean look at his stats.  He is ranked 42 out of all catchers in framing.  30th in throwing.  He is first in blocking.

So overall Defense wise?  I mean he isn't anything great.  Very average at best.  So if he isn't hitting? 

I mean what are we doing here?  He might just be the type that wears down very quickly.  I think the fact that he hits better as a DH backs that up. 

[Fiver6565]

All these years I thought the Oneas for Orioles but I guess OH actually stands for Overreaction Hangout. 
 

Tremendous respect for what Tony does and has done with this site, and this is not directed at him or many others in any way. But the Oriole Talk forum has been an absolute clown show of bad takes lately. Apparently we have a terrible SS, a bad 1-1 pick at C, a GM who couldn’t execute a good trade if his life depended on it, and who knows what else I’ve already forgotten about. 
 

It’s a miracle we’re tied for first given how awful this team is, based on what gets written here by several posters. 

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

To be a bit less scientific for a moment, I had a bad feeling at the time about that Sunday Night Baseball game where our kids were the toast of the town. And it was all Lego shoes and headsets in the field and modeling dusters for the ASG voting and cool-guy interviews in the stands. Just felt like one of those moments that could be tough for a young kid to really process, where you’re making the jump from “local star” to “national superstar.”

Here’s how it’s broken down for our two superstars before and after that game (6/30).

Gunnar Before: .292/.388/.612/1.000, 179 wRC+, 5.4 fWAR (9 errors)

Gunnar After: .274/.336/.406/.742, 113 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR (9 errors)

Adley Before: .298/.354/.476/.830, 135 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Adley After: .119/.237/.202/.439, 31 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR

I guess also interestingly, both Westburg (2.5 fWAR prior and 0.3 fWAR after) and Mountcastle (118 wRC+ prior and 88 wRC+ after) also pretty much fell apart right around that date. 

 

I’m sure everyone has their own idea in their head of what started this recent collapse for our star players. Maybe it’s fatigue, maybe it was all the All-Star game stuff, maybe it was clubhouse discomfort, maybe it’s just the league adjusting, maybe it’s just normal regression to the mean. As with most things, it’s probably some combination of a lot of different factors.

But I sure can’t shake the feeling that it isn’t a coincidence that both of these guys were flying as high as you can fly coming into that Sunday night game (Gunnar had a 1.305 OPS in his prior 10 games and Adley was at .969) — and since that day, it’s pretty much been absolutely disastrous.

THIS!!  The first paragraph.....I posted the exact same thought and feeling (actually, called it an ESPN jinx)  in another thread around the time of the All Star break, and I was told I was "overreacting" and "there's nothing to see here", and oh, "they'll be fine, everyone goes through something like this."

Okay, maybe there's not a jinx, but Adley and Gunnar cooled off substantially immediately.  In fact, the night of the game and the special shoes, Gunnar struck out in all 4 at bats.

If someone had told you that the Orioles hit 7 home runs in their first two games after the All Star break, would any of us have bet money that Gunnar hit at least one of those?  I would have, and would have lost the bet.....

[Sanity Check]

2 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

THIS!!  The first paragraph.....I posted the exact same thought and feeling (actually, called it an ESPN jinx)  in another thread around the time of the All Star break, and I was told I was "overreacting" and "there's nothing to see here", and oh, "they'll be fine, everyone goes through something like this."

Okay, maybe there's not a jinx, but Adley and Gunnar cooled off substantially immediately.  In fact, the night of the game and the special shoes, Gunnar struck out in all 4 at bats.

If someone had told you that the Orioles hit 7 home runs in their first two games after the All Star break, would any of us have bet money that Gunnar hit at least one of those?  I would have, and would have lost the bet.....

Actually, I had started a thread about the ESPN Jinx, linked below, on July 14th....about 3 weeks ago.

 

 

[Say O!]

36 minutes ago, MacAdoo said:

Agreed.  He's at the age where he pretty much is what he's going to be.  He's not going be the Buster Posey/Joe Mauer/.315 with 25-30 HR that many thought he would be and were hoping for.  He's going to be closer to .275 with 20-25 HR. 

He reminds me a ton of Jason Varitek given his switch hitting, leadership, intangibles, and good-but-not-elite output.  While it's disappointing given the hype, even those dudes are very rare and hard to come by and you take that 10 out of 10 times. 

Adjusted for today’s offensive environment, that’s probably in the ~130 wRC+ zone and when coupled with average defense at C is easily 5-6 WAR player.  Adley was 135 wRC+ in 2022 and 127 wRC+ in 2023.

Offensive context was much different during Mauer and Posey eras, such that their career wRC+ was 123 (Mauer) and 129 (Posey) respectively. 

[Osornot]

Injury.