Our 'Elite talent pipeline' has thinned, considerably

[Greg Pappas]

While this topic has little meaning for the 2024 Orioles, the graduations of Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (despite being back at AAA) has this farm system looking fairly average (or average adjacent LOL).  This is a natural consequence of the excellent job Elias has done in drafting and developing talent.  While Basallo is a beast and among the top ten prospects in baseball, he may be our only Top 100 prospect next season, though it's possible that Bradfield could join that group.  Top 100 lists are not the end all be all, though they do give a nice overview of how the industry views these players compared to their peers.  This is not to say that we are bereft of talent, at all, but much of it appears to be years away from contributing.  

We will not be the top farm system to begin 2025, which in and of itself is a major change.  Perhaps we will find ourselves in the middle of the pack or somewhat better (10th?)?  It's hard to say, but with Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (temporarily at AAA) up with the O's, Elias has cut the wheat from the shaft, so to speak.  We have the offensive building blocks for a great run over the coming years but must shore up the rotation to take advantage of it.   Regardless, with less top talent available to us on the farm, we may need to find other avenues of talent, such as free agency, to shore up the roster moving forward.  

Thoughts?

Note: Forgive me if someone else has brought this point up in a thread somewhere.  I don't recall it.

Edited August 6 by Greg Pappas

[Baseball fandom]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

While this topic has little meaning for the 2024 Orioles, the graduations of Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (despite being back at AAA) has this farm system looking fairly average (or average adjacent LOL).  This is a natural consequence of the excellent job Elias has done in drafting and developing talent.  While Basallo is a beast and among the top ten prospects in baseball, he may be our only Top 100 prospect next season, though it's possible that Bradfield could join that group.  Top 100 lists are not the end all be all, though they do give a nice overview of how the industry views these players compared to their peers.  This is not to say that we are bereft of talent, at all, but much of it appears to be years away from contributing.  

We will not be the top farm system to begin 2025, which in and of itself is a major change.  Perhaps we will find ourselves in the middle of the pack or somewhat better (10th?)?  It's hard to say, but with Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (temporarily at AAA) up with the O's, Elias has cut the wheat from the shaft, so to speak.  We have the offensive building blocks for a great run over the coming years but must shore up the rotation to take advantage of it.   Regardless, with less top talent available to us on the farm, we may need to find other avenues of talent, such as free agency, to shore up the roster moving forward.  

Thoughts?

Note: Forgive me if someone else has brought this point up in a thread somewhere.  I don't recall it.

Yes totally agree. That's why it was nice to see the new ownership give Elias permission to take on payroll at this deadline. Under JA in what you just highlighted above this certainly would had been a major issue with such limited financial resources. 

[ScGO's]

It was bound to happen. I would rather they graduate and thin out than stay longer in the minors for a ranking

I do like how Elias tries to set up at least one guy a year to make a run at RoY though

[Aristotelian]

This is a feature, not a bug. Once you are done with your rebuild, you want the top players on the MLB team. And you would rather win than have the #1 pick year after year. 

We have a nice window open at least through 2027 which would be Adley's walk year. We will see what pieces come in through the draft between now and then. If we have any down years hopefully Elias takes the opportunity to retool which Duquette/Angelos regime failed to do. 

 

[Yossarian]

We've also lost a lot of bargaining chips for trades for pitching.   We're either going to have to buy pitchers in free agency,  or hope we can find some gems in the Rule 5 scrap heap.  I don't see us trading these young positron players with years of control for pitching. 

[Greg Pappas]

4 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

We've also lost a lot of bargaining chips for trades for pitching.   We're either going to have to buy pitchers in free agency,  or hope we can find some gems in the Rule 5 scrap heap.  I don't see us trading these young positron players with years of control for pitching. 

Yeah... I really hope we look to free agency.  I haven't looked to see what starters are available in 2025, but it would be one way to bring in talent without losing it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yeah... I really hope we look to free agency.  I haven't looked to see what starters are available in 2025, but it would be one way to bring in talent without losing it.

This one guy, I think his name is Burnes, seems pretty good.

[LookinUp]

At what point do we question the job Koby Perez is doing? Or our pitching development plan? 

[Greg Pappas]

Basallo has been great, but I'm really hoping we'll start to see the international talent make its way to AA+.  Once that specific talent pipeline gets to contributing, along with the drafted players, it will be great situation for us.

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

This one guy, I think his name is Burnes, seems pretty good.

You and me both CoC.

[ChicagoTerp]

This is expected. Hopefully we are entering the phase where instead of obsessing over prospects, we obsess over contract extensions.

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

At what point do we question the job Koby Perez is doing? Or our pitching development plan? 

Hehehe yeah, I was just posting about that as well... great point.  It seems that these players are getting to A ball, and hopefully AA soon.  It's a long process, but Elias trusts Perez and if he stops believing in the work he's doing, he'll replace him.  The pitching issue is a very real one.

[Yossarian]

8 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yeah... I really hope we look to free agency.  I haven't looked to see what starters are available in 2025, but it would be one way to bring in talent without losing it.

Some decent names out there

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/2025-mlb-free-agent-rankings-top-10-pitchers

I'm with you guys,  though,  Burnes would be my #1 choice. 

[CTBear]

I don’t think we will need to hit at nearly the same clip with our prospects now that we have a strong core of players but that’s only if we can extend a few guys. Between international signings, the draft and free agency, there should be plenty of dry powder to get the most out of this window similar to the Astros’ long run. Player health is the one thing I could see unraveling things because I predict Elias/Sig will stay fairly risk averse. 

[glenn__davis]

It's been discussed a bit on the minors forum.

There will definitely be a bit of a lull here, in no small part due to how quickly some of these guys shot through the system.  By most timelines Holliday would still be in the system another year or so, instead he'll soon be losing prospect status.

Unless Elias has his eyes on another job (not out of the realm of possibility) I'm sure he's aware of this as well.