Jump to content

Vance Honeycutt

wildcard

By wildcard
in Minors

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 234
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Aglets
Aglets

Thanks for taking the time to post in the minor league section of the Orioles message boards to tell us how little you care about the minor leagues.  😉 Obviously the ML club is what matters most.

Warehouse
Warehouse

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over contr

Frobby
Frobby

Nobody has said.  I’d expect either this coming Tuesday, or the following Tuesday.   Edit: Most, but not all, of the college hitters chosen ahead of Honeycutt have made their debuts in the last w

Posted Images

Chromehill Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chromehill

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think some of this is also an understanding that teams don’t value the same things they did 15+ years ago..had to be some adjusting made to the new way of things.

Hitting 220 isn’t considered a big problem anymore..even if it should be.

When the league average is .244, having a guy hit .220 who draws walks, has some power, runs well and plays good defense....you can probably live with that player in your lineup.  Sad, but true in today's baseball.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I thought something similar. Except either comparing to a cf version of Jorge Mateo with 30hr power, or somewhere in the realm of Giancarlo Stanton if he could play defense and steal bases. He’s had a ops+ of 112, 86 and 121 the last 3 years despite striking out 30% of the time (quite a bit more than Santander). If Vance puts up 100-110 ops+ then plays elite cf defense and can steal 20+ bases, a k rate that high can still play. At least in theory. 

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison. :D

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
On 9/3/2024 at 10:15 AM, Warehouse said:

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over control years to varying degrees.

Even when you consider effects from health/consistency, this paints a rosy picture of outcomes vs. the stats shared by Skanar.  So I might be overly optimistic here. On the other hand, college outfielders probably have better outcomes than other profiles, teams have likely improved evaluation since the early 90s, 22 is better than 21-30, and Elias may be a better evaluator than average.

 

Percentile                    

WAR/525 PAs                    

Comps

95th

5+

Brent Rooker bat, Kevin Kiermaier glove, Bobby Witt baserunning

90th

3.5-4.5

Luis Robert Jr or Byron Buxton without the injuries

75th

2.5-3.5

Jose Siri

60th

~2

Drew Stubbs

50th

1-2

Some version of Michael A. Taylor, Brett Phillips, or Keon Broxton with more power but also more Ks

40th

0-1

Sam Hilliard, Bradley Zimmer

30th

<0

Christian Pache, Daz Cameron, Arismendy Alcantera, Drew Robinson

≤ 20th

Never make majors         

Jeren Kendall

Drew Stubbs as a hitter is a great comp for Honeycutt, nice job. He'll probably be a much better CF defender though, not that Stubbs was terrible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OsFanInOhio Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

OsFanInOhio

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison. :D

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

I’m in no way saying Vance will be Stanton. More showing an example of how over a 3 or 4 year stretch (the last few years specifically) a player can be an above average offensive player even striking out at a 30% clip. If he can even be an average mlb hitter (much like folks have said about Mateo for years) then Vance will be a good big leaguer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'd vote no on this...

 

Gallo had some pretty good years.  Obviously he is/was a flawed player.  Still, he had seasons of 4.2, 3.1, 2.9 and 2.4 rWAR, was an all star twice, has won two Gold Gloves.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your expectations are wildly off on what you think a draft pick should become.

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

Edited by RZNJ
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

We writing guys off in their draft year now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • e16bball
      Option decisions …

      By e16bball · Posted

      The splits for the second half definitely do kinda look like that on the surface, but it was more an issue of one awful slump, rather than an overall second half swoon, especially in 2023. In 2023, he really just had a terrible week or so, which unfortunately happened to be the last week of the season. He went 0 for his last 23, dropping his OPS from .855 to .801 in the process. Prior to that dreadful week, he’d posted an .846 OPS in the second half. This past season, of course, it was almost a whole terrible month — starting right around the day Mountcastle went out. From 8/18 to 9/15, he put up a .411 OPS over the span of 80 PAs. Absolutely awful. But sandwiched around that malaise were two good second half stints, with a combined .926 OPS in 130 second half PAs before and after that tailspin.    Anyhow, I don’t think there’s any way they decline that option. The guy is a quality hitter, so even if they do want to move on — which I don’t think they will — he’d have value to somebody at that relatively low price. Especially if they were willing to eat a few bucks to sweeten the return. If they somehow get a bona fide starting RF from outside the organization, then I think maybe they move him. You don’t want him blocking Kjerstad again, but at present, I think it’s reasonable to imagine that they could both find 400-500 PAs. 
    • Hallas
      Do we agree that developing Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B and Mayo 1B/DH.......

      By Hallas · Posted

      Im not sure what the deal is with Holliday-to-CF truthers, but he was above average by OAA, average by UZR, and slightly below by DRS at 2B, so it feels like we should give him the opportunity to improve there rather than move him to a position he hasn't really played in his career.
    • Allan Bryant
      Do we agree that developing Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B and Mayo 1B/DH.......

      By Allan Bryant · Posted

      If that’s the case , then they can trade Bradfield for other options 
    • interloper
      Option decisions …

      By interloper · Posted

      Perez seems like an easy re-up to me. You need arms, they're not all going to be perfect. He's got some strengths.
    • Sports Guy
      International class of 2024

      By Sports Guy · Posted

      Garcia is getting some pub from different spots.  Could be a major riser.
    • bpilktree67
      Snell and Fried

      By bpilktree67 · Posted

      They did guarantee his arbitration years but they didn’t add any years to their control.  
    • 24fps
      Do we agree that developing Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B and Mayo 1B/DH.......

      By 24fps · Posted

      Tis' the season for over the top, which should end around Opening Day... Sign Bregman, move Westburg back to 2B.  Lose O'Hearn and make Kjerstad the LH platoon at 1B along with Mountcastle.  Holliday quickly transitions to CF (because if Merrill can do it, naturally so can Holliday) and Mullins is in RF along with a RHB 1-year FA stopgap while Mayo learns RF in Norfolk.  Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser no change. If someone brings up the subject of defense, kindly look the other way.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...