If John Angelos is still owner, 2023 was probably the high water mark of this team

[OriolesMagic83]

I feel like last season was a golden opportunity and Elias should have pushed a good number of chips to the center of the table.  Nothing crazy, not all the chips!  Last year's team had that special feeling about them that this year's team totally lacks.  I felt that if the O's were down 4-3 in the 7th last year, there was a 50% chance they were coming back.  This year, if the O's have a 4-3 lead in the 7th, I have a bad feeling that the O's are going to lose.  I know a good percentage of that was having a better bullpen last year, but there was an aura about last year's team that they just expected to win.  It was still there although lesser until about mid June and then the team just felt deflated with Bradish and Means' injuries.  I'm hoping the O's win at least one postseason series, but the odds are stacked against even that.  If JA was still here, there would be proclamations that there would be additions to the team but free agents and "extensions" are expensive.  Maybe there would be 1 extension done.  More reason to "have to raise" prices.  There would probably be a #4/5 starter added, a mid tier reliever and mid level bat, while letting several veterans like Santander, Kimbrel and Mountcastle (trade). go.  It wouldn't be enough to keep up with the O's competition who will be shopping at the top of the free agent bin like the Yankees and Red Sox or have premium young talent like the Rays and Red Sox.  It will be eye opening and hopefully energizing to see the difference if any between the Angelos' O's and the Rubenstein O's.  If this is an Angelos' offseason, the O's will be fighting for 3rd/4th place next season.

[Moose Milligan]

First, paragraphs.

Second, John Angelos isn't here.  Thank God. 

Third, everyone thought that the special feeling that last year's team would carry over to this year and years moving forward.  And for awhile, it did.

The big question about the offseason is what Rubenstein will do/won't do.  He's already said that he's going to listen to Elias and trust him implicitly.  We're about to find out if Elias wants to open up the purse strings and spend some money this offseason or if he was the tightwad all along.

[gtman55]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Third, everyone thought that the special feeling that last year's team would carry over to this year and years moving forward.  And for awhile, it did.

Until we lost Means and then Bradish. The mediocrity and injuries smowballed from there. 

[Can_of_corn]

It still might be.

[now]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're about to find out if Elias wants to open up the purse strings and spend some money this offseason or if he was the tightwad all along.

Why would Elias be the tightwad? It's not his money, right?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, now said:

Why would Elias be the tightwad? It's not his money, right?

That's a myopic view of looking at it.

This isn't a company that just got a bunch of VC money.  My hunch (based on nothing but feelings, no evidence) is that Elias himself likes wearing pants with deep pockets but has short arms.  I think he's a bit petrified of giving out big deals to players in case they don't work out.  I don't think he ever wants to be in a position where he doesn't have payroll flexibility...only to not use that flexibility.  Like a guy who has a Ferrari in his garage but only takes it out twice a year when the weather is optimal.  Too afraid to drive it cause something might happen to it.

So why would he be the tightwad because it's not his money after all?  Cause he thinks he can do more efficiently (cheaper) than other teams.  And until July of this year, he's been right.

So like I said, we'll see if he was the tightwad here this offseason...and I think there's a good chance that he is.  I mean, how else do you get a job with John Angelos?  It certainly wasn't by explaining to him about all the money he plans to spend in free agency.

[now]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a myopic view of looking at it.

This isn't a company that just got a bunch of VC money.  My hunch (based on nothing but feelings, no evidence) is that Elias himself likes wearing pants with deep pockets but has short arms.  I think he's a bit petrified of giving out big deals to players in case they don't work out.  I don't think he ever wants to be in a position where he doesn't have payroll flexibility...only to not use that flexibility.  Like a guy who has a Ferrari in his garage but only takes it out twice a year when the weather is optimal.  Too afraid to drive it cause something might happen to it.

So why would he be the tightwad because it's not his money after all?  Cause he thinks he can do more efficiently (cheaper) than other teams.  And until July of this year, he's been right.

So like I said, we'll see if he was the tightwad here this offseason...and I think there's a good chance that he is.  I mean, how else do you get a job with John Angelos?  It certainly wasn't by explaining to him about all the money he plans to spend in free agency.

Good answer, thanks for elaborating. Besides, I can relate to your illustration, having just sold a Mercedes I got on a good deal two years ago, for the reasons you mention (notably, high potential repair bills in future, and present lack of "payroll flexibility").

[Too Tall]

Moose, I tend to side with the logic of your reasoning but sure hope you are wrong and I bet you do too. I want Elias to have the budget to compete for free agents whose contracts - though always a risk - make sense for this franchise and fill a specific need. If he is risk adverse or JA's tightwad moving forward, it will be a big dissapointment and I don't think he will be here long.

[milbest77]

I have the same concerns as everyone here, but just thought of something. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the team sell at a bit of a “discount?” Like the valuation seemed a tad on the low side? Meaning Angelos was desperate to get rid of it. Not sure what all that means, but some food for thought. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a myopic view of looking at it.

This isn't a company that just got a bunch of VC money.  My hunch (based on nothing but feelings, no evidence) is that Elias himself likes wearing pants with deep pockets but has short arms.  I think he's a bit petrified of giving out big deals to players in case they don't work out.  I don't think he ever wants to be in a position where he doesn't have payroll flexibility...only to not use that flexibility.  Like a guy who has a Ferrari in his garage but only takes it out twice a year when the weather is optimal.  Too afraid to drive it cause something might happen to it.

So why would he be the tightwad because it's not his money after all?  Cause he thinks he can do more efficiently (cheaper) than other teams.  And until July of this year, he's been right.

So like I said, we'll see if he was the tightwad here this offseason...and I think there's a good chance that he is.  I mean, how else do you get a job with John Angelos?  It certainly wasn't by explaining to him about all the money he plans to spend in free agency.

I don't get that.  If Elias was Mets GM, he would force the Mets to have under $200 million payrolls, Cohen be damned.  If Rubenstein authorized a $200 million payroll next year, Elias would likely spend the vast majority of it.  He might spend $185 mill w/ the idea of adding more at the deadline.  Was Friedman able to adjust having one of the top payrolls every year after leaving the Rays?

[Aristotelian]

What is the special feeling last year's team had? Winning 100 games with only one major injury?

[LookitsPuck]

How many real injuries did the club have last year outside of Bautista? 

That said, I'm reserving judgement on Elias and him being conservative as even the most conservative of GMs aren't handing out 1 year deals and nothing else. That feels a hell of a lot more of a John Angelos restriction. And if we look at his tenure at the Astros, they most definitely weren't gun shy in medium/longer term deals. Elias wasn't a dummy, he's used to dealing with private equity/consultant types, so he knows how to play the game based on the type of owner. There's no real reason to be gun-shy about medium term deals especially since it affords the team the ability to forecast better and not give up resources at trade deadlines.

To me, this offseason is much more about Rubenstein. He's thrown hats and is saying the right things, but he has private equity roots. And he brought along some guys that we should be very weary of like Arougheti. 

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't get that.  If Elias was Mets GM, he would force the Mets to have under $200 million payrolls, Cohen be damned.  If Rubenstein authorized a $200 million payroll next year, Elias would likely spend the vast majority of it.  He might spend $185 mill w/ the idea of adding more at the deadline.  Was Friedman able to adjust having one of the top payrolls every year after leaving the Rays?

I don't get that.

If Rubenstein authorized a 200 million payroll next year, you think Elias spends the vast majority of it to say he spent it?  Or do you think he spends some of it on what he perceives to be a good deal/good value?

What about Elias suggests to ANYONE that he wants to spend a lot of money?

[Spy Fox]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What is the special feeling last year's team had? Winning 100 games with only one major injury?

The magic of exceeding expectations. 

Whereas the current special feeling is the fear of falling short of them. 

[LookitsPuck]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't get that.

If Rubenstein authorized a 200 million payroll next year, you think Elias spends the vast majority of it to say he spent it?  Or do you think he spends some of it on what he perceives to be a good deal/good value?

What about Elias suggests to ANYONE that he wants to spend a lot of money?

There isn't much to suggest that Elias wants to spend a lot of money unnecessarily as he cut his teeth under private equity/consultants which are all about efficiency and saving cash. He's a Luhnow acolyte after all.

That said, the Astros weren't exactly gun shy with their contracts. Brian McCann got 5 years, Gurriel 5 years, Reddick 4 years, Gregerson 3 years, Sipp 3 years, Altuve 4 years + 2. All of those came while Elias was still assistant GM (at the tail end of his tenure). That was based on the Astros 2017 Opening Day roster.

These guys do have their own strategies and viewpoints, but both Elias and Sig worked together under Luhnow, so there's probably a lot of learned/adopted strategy from that time (with their own sprinkled in). I think Elias operated under some tight restrictions of Angelos, especially in this most recent offseason when Angelos didn't want to commit to longer contracts to have as little on the books for new ownership as possible.

Edited August 23 by LookitsPuck