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As we enter the offseason, the O's are a _______ win team

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Where do you see the Os right now?  With what is signed and here for next year, how many wins does the current team get in 2025?

90+ as is. Parity is the new flavor in MLB. Only the CWS are rebuilding. Maybe the Angels and A’s. Everyone else is hoping to “contend”. 

If we’re hoping for massive changes then I don’t see that happening. I think we decide if we want Soto back or not. Same with McCann. Maybe we try and trade a 1B/DH type for a SP or LRP. 

We’re a playoff team. We’re getting more experience. We’ll be alright. 2024 2nd half was the rock bottom for this team offensively going forward. 

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MurphDogg
MurphDogg

Those 3 players combined for 7.3 rWAR, 8.4 fWAR, so subtracting 10 wins is a little steep. They also aren't being replaced by replacement level players, their replacements without any outside add

MCO'sFan
MCO'sFan

I think they are a 87 win team +/- 4.

JR Oriole
JR Oriole

I honestly feel like 75 - 80 wins.  They went 42-48 in the last 90 games (including the 2 playoff games). That is a real long stretch of under .500 ball and I understand that injuries played a big rol

ShoelesJoe All-Star

ShoelesJoe

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I think Westburg, Holliday, and Kjerstad take big steps forward which will easily offset the loss of Santander (who wasn't as valuable as a lot of people believe). Getting Bautista back will take a lot of the pressure off the bullpen, which will take some pressure off the starting rotation. Even w/o any significant additions the offense will be better next season than it was in 2024, and the pitching a tad worse. Right now we're a 91 win team, give or take 3 games due to luck. Add a Snell or re-sign Burnes and we're back to being a 97 win team. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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So, the average will probably fall in the 84-88 win range amongst people here.  I think that's a fair representation of where the team is.  In other words, they are between a borderline playoff team and WC team.

They aren't a division favorite as of now but they are certainly in the mix.

I think its safe to say that the team needs to add at least 5 wins to the current team to be solidly in the playoffs, on paper, as you enter the season. Obviously things can happen that could hurt you or turn you into a 100 win team but i think if you enter the year as an 88-95 win team, that puts you in a great spot. I feel that is how we entered this season and we need to get back to that. 

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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No Burnes, Bradish, Santander?  Around 10 wins off 2024, so 81ish.  When it comes to the young guys taking a step forward, I'm still a believer over time but I'm also in "show me" mode right now so Elias and Rubenstein have their work cut out for them this offseason as far as I'm concerned.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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1 minute ago, 24fps said:

No Burnes, Bradish, Santander?  Around 10 wins off 2024, so 81ish.  When it comes to the young guys taking a step forward, I'm still a believer over time but I'm also in "show me" mode right now so Elias and Rubenstein have their work cut out for them this offseason as far as I'm concerned.

Those 3 players combined for 7.3 rWAR, 8.4 fWAR, so subtracting 10 wins is a little steep.

They also aren't being replaced by replacement level players, their replacements without any outside additions would be Tyler Wells, a full season of Eflin (rather than the two months he was here in 2024), and Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo getting most of Santander's at bats.

Add in the return of Bautista, and 81 wins without any additions is overly pessimistic in my opinion.

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JR Oriole Major Leaguer

JR Oriole

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I honestly feel like 75 - 80 wins.  They went 42-48 in the last 90 games (including the 2 playoff games). That is a real long stretch of under .500 ball and I understand that injuries played a big role, but injuries are going to happen every year.  It is hard not to let how the offense played down the stretch impact my thoughts heading into next year, but they don't feel like a very good team...or even a good one.  Until they show us something different in April and May of next year, and until our homegrown talent collectively lives up to its hype, that 90 game stretch lingers on in my mind and feels to me like who they are.  

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TommyPickles Major Leaguer

TommyPickles

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90 wins (+/- 4)

No Burnes or Santander, but you add Felix, Grayson, half-year of Bradish, Wells, and a more experienced version of all the young guys.

This is a team that has averaged 96 wins a season over the last two years. It's not unreasonable to assume guys like Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and others will have their best seasons to date in 2025

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oriole Veteran All-Star

oriole

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Low 80s. Part of me feels like that’s too optimistic and another part feels like I’m not being realistic enough considering the failures of the 2nd half of 2024 and the loss of Santander and Burnes. 
 

Right now they’ve got a rotation of Rodriguez, Eflin, Kremer, Povich, and McDermott…that’s not winning a wild card over a full season. There’s a lot of work to do and I think 90+ wins are in the cards but they’ve got to invest a little bit in some proven players. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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Are we letting NYY keep their Soto, Cole, Gleyber, Verdugo, Rizzo and Holmes thinking about division favorites?

Whatever happened to Adley is reasonably a HIPAA black box we'll never know unless he feels like sharing for PR purposes.    As long as it was an ordinary baseball injury an off-season heals, the Orioles feel like favorites to me even if Kremer, Povich and the winner of a McDermott/Rogers/Akin/Young camp battle throws Game 5 with one of the others his long reliever.

Five returning starters have 4 or more win seasons under their belts, rounding up for Westburg.     Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo are three others who have proven little, but are fair bets to grow to that in time.    And I saw mention the Ryans helped the 2024 Orioles to something like 6th in WAA at the 1B position.

4-win players don't grow on trees, and the Orioles have more of them than anybody.

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