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Shutting Guthrie Down

diego

By diego
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Bottom line is Guthrie's velocity is still way up there and it is still hiogh enough where he should be able to be successful.

A 1-3MPH loss in velocity shouldn't kill his effectiveness.

He isn't effective because he doesn't have the same command(Which you should have all seen coming) and his secondary pitches aren't consistent enough.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Bottom line is Guthrie's velocity is still way up there and it is still hiogh enough where he should be able to be successful.

A 1-3MPH loss in velocity shouldn't kill his effectiveness.

He isn't effective because he doesn't have the same command(Which you should have all seen coming) and his secondary pitches aren't consistent enough.

Yeppers. Total agreement.

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Fairfax Bird Major Leaguer Rising Star

Fairfax Bird

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Responding in that topic I said, "in four starts from July 17th - August 7, he pitched to an ERA of only 2.59. Two of those starts were against the Red Sox and Yankees." If you're seeing a trend, how do you explain this in the middle of it?

This post makes too much sense to respond to.;)

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Flosman Major Leaguer

Flosman

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No, it just doesn't matter...Looking at a larger sample size...Plus, the GB rate and BB rates are worse in those games anyway...Not everything is based around ERA.

Yes but using your larger sample size argument you would have to say he has been a pretty good pitcher this season. He has been touched up some lately, name a top of the rotation guy that that does not happen to, much less a middle/back of the rotation guy. Things are just evening out for him. He has proven he can be reasonably effective in a SP role in the Majors. Now over the next year we will probably find out how good, or in your view how bad he will actually be.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Bottom line is Guthrie's velocity is still way up there and it is still hiogh enough where he should be able to be successful.

A 1-3MPH loss in velocity shouldn't kill his effectiveness.

He isn't effective because he doesn't have the same command(Which you should have all seen coming) and his secondary pitches aren't consistent enough.

I agree that Guthrie's recent struggles are due to lack of command, not velocity. However, what is less clear to me is whether Guthrie just had a "fluky" 3 months where his command was much better than it is going to be in the future, or whether his recent lack of command is the product of getting a bit tired as he approaches his career high for innings pitched. His problem, form what I see, is not overall lack of command, but specifically leaving pitches up in the zone, which is often a product of fatigue.) I recognize your point that his BB rate was never this good in the past, but on the other hand it's hard for me to imagine that it is possible for a pitcher to have excellent command for 15+ starts and have that be a "fluke." I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude, but in any event I fully expect to see Guthrie in next year's rotation barring something very unexpected.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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Yes but using your larger sample size argument you would have to say he has been a pretty good pitcher this season
Very true...But basically, you can split his season in half right now(in terms of starts). So, with that, you have two extremes. However, when you couple that with his MiL numbers, the first part of the year is very flukish. And, he really has more to go in terms of his BABIP before that normalizes even more(albeit not a whole lot)
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I agree that Guthrie's recent struggles are due to lack of command, not velocity. However, what is less clear to me is whether Guthrie just had a "fluky" 3 months where his command was much better than it is going to be in the future, or whether his recent lack of command is the product of getting a bit tired as he approaches his career high for innings pitched. His problem, form what I see, is not overall lack of command, but specifically leaving pitches up in the zone, which is often a product of fatigue.) I recognize your point that his BB rate was never this good in the past, but on the other hand it's hard for me to imagine that it is possible for a pitcher to have excellent command for 15+ starts and have that be a "fluke." I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude, but in any event I fully expect to see Guthrie in next year's rotation barring something very unexpected.

When did have excellent command for 15+ starts?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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When did have excellent command for 15+ starts?

Your post caused me to go look at his game log. Let's call it 12 starts, even though I'd argue that his command was generally good in a few of his games in July even where he walked 3 batters. Command, to me, is not only about walks, it's about how often you are missing your spots.

In any event my point doesn't really change. I believe that Guthrie is capable of pitching a lot of games where he keeps the ball down in the zone and gets ahead of hitters consistently, and when he does that, he will be successful. I never thought he was likely to end up with a sub-3.00 ERA but I have more confidence than you seem to have in the likelihood that he will be a no. 2-3 starter over the next few years.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Your post caused me to go look at his game log. Let's call it 12 starts, even though I'd argue that his command was generally good in a few of his games in July even where he walked 3 batters. Command, to me, is not only about walks, it's about how often you are missing your spots
You are 100% correct...I honestly was thinking more in terms of walks.
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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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We also have to remember that in his earlier starts teams were free swinging against him after he got ahead early. He didn't have to be perfect everytime. Now he's getting behind early in counts and teams are waiting more patiently, which leads to him nibbling more. This is evidenced by his higher pitch counts per inning.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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What's obvious is that his command has suffered after being fantastic earlier in the year. His velocity seems to also be down 3 mph on average. Call it what you will but it sure looks like fatigue or a mechanical slump of some sort. Markakis looked like Stan Musial for two months last year. Were those two months fluky or is he capable of that again? I don't say that Markakis is Musial or that Guthrie is great, but I think both put together great streaks on talent, not luck. I think Guthrie still has the talent, BUT I'll eat crow if he's nothing but mediocre ending this season and going into next season.

Markakis showed a lot more in the minors than Guthrie did and he is 5 years younger.

The comparison is awful.

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