Andy's Mistakes

[The Rick]

The threads discussing AM are always very entertaining, but also extremely insightful. This is good stuff.

Anyway, continue. I've got my popcorn, i'm ready for some more.

[Moose Milligan]

I say we send Kozy Shack products straight to SG's door.

Hilarious, McNutty, well done.

[TonySoprano]

3 years is multi-years, right?

Let's face it, they blew a lot of smoke about how geography may play in our favor last offseason. The assumption was he was talking about Burnett and Teixeira. No offers to Burnett (three years of otherwise) were actually made, or at least, ever reported. It was sleight of hand. While Burnett talked to Atlanta and New York, rather than focus on where were the Orioles in this, the attention in the local press shifted to Teixeira.

[Moose Milligan]

The threads discussing AM are always very entertaining, but also extremely insightful. This is good stuff.

Anyway, continue. I've got my popcorn, i'm ready for some more.

Don't forget the beer.

<img src = "http://extremeskins.com/images/smilies/muching_out.gif">

[Lucky Jim]

In the end, I think the whole FA thing went very well for the O's.

Not overpaying for Burnett (of the 5+ FIP, declining K rates, elevated BB rates and low BABIP) was wise.

And, if we weren't going to get Teix (whatever you think) having him go to a Yankees team that is old, expensive, and in decline (and it is) is much better than going to the more innovative and deep Sox.

Teix gets buried doing yeoman's work as the Empire declines and falls.

The O's wait a year and keep working towards their goal.

That's just my take. I'm not on either side of this argument, really.

I thought last year was too early to make a FA splash, save for bargain signings (which I liked). I think this year, with added info about Patton, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Erbe &c., and the addition of Hill, plus the presence of potential low-ceiling but useful guys like Berken means that we have a much better idea of what kind of talent is waiting to present itself.

The Patton and Hill performances, and Tillman's domination of AAA at 21 are huge, IMO.

Again, that's just me.

[TonySoprano]

MacPhail met last month with Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker, and he'll likely touch base with him this week. However, the Orioles are not expected to come close to matching the Atlanta Braves' reported offer, a four-year pact worth $60 million with an option for a fifth season.

Fearful of Burnett's injury history, the Orioles are even hesitant to offer him a guaranteed four years, likely leaving them to pour through other options. They have expressed interest in Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Mark Hendrickson, Braden Looper and Randy Wolf. They have meetings scheduled with the agents for Kenshin Kawakami, and Koji Uehara, and appear to be in decent position to land at least one of the Japanese starters.

source - Baltimore Sun, Dec 6, 2008

Unwilling to go to four years, and with a four-year deal from another team already on the table, who thinks MacPhail bothered to make a three-year offer?

[scOtt]

The only mistake I see Andy has made is not being here eleven seasons earlier.

[RShack]

Don't complain when you decide to poke the bear and it rips you to shreds.

Ripped to shreds by the bear?

[Lucky Jim]

source - Baltimore Sun, Dec 6, 2008

Unwilling to go to four years, and with a four-year deal from another team already on the table, who thinks MacPhail bothered to make a three-year offer?

Yes. There's no doubt that the Orioles thought the offers were inflated before they ever made a bid.

Burnett has been worth more than $15m twice - in his walk years w/ Florida and Toronto.

Generally, he's a 3.0-3.5 WAR kind of guy. Paying him $15m a year to watch him turn 35 would have been silly.

[RShack]

Oh, so he was a special case huh?

So, then what you said was wrong..Clearly there are situations where AM would go after a big time FA, even before the young pitching is available.

Tell you what... let's see what actually happens, shall we? Or do you think it's better to go by internet gossip instead of Actual Baseball Events.

I expect he won't ink a big-bucks FA until after some kid-P's show up and act like something. Do you claim otherwise?

[RShack]

I agree with this point. It's not a given that talent will be there the next year. You take what you get when you can get it. To do otherwise is to put all the eggs in the basket of the "cavalry" of young pitching .

It's not that simple. It's not the case that you only know who's available now. With FA's, you can pretty much tell who is gonna be up for grabs when. So it's not like either you grab somebody now or else you're putting all your egss in the cavalry basket. That's painting a picture that's just not true.

[Sports Guy]

Tell you what... let's see what actually happens, shall we? Or do you think it's better to go by internet gossip instead of Actual Baseball Events.

I expect he won't ink a big-bucks FA until after some kid-P's show up and act like something. Do you claim otherwise?

I think AM will ONLY sign a FA when the player is a great value for the money...If that player is available this offseason and AM wants him, then I think he signs him.

Other than that, he will not spend in FA.

[RShack]

I think AM will ONLY sign a FA when the player is a great value for the money...If that player is available this offseason and AM wants him, then I think he signs him.

Other than that, he will not spend in FA.

I agree that if he sees a great value he'll do it, provided that value fits with team needs. If it doesn't, then I'm not so sure.

I also expect that if he thinks the time is right, he'll go for what he considers an OK-value, it won't have to be a great value. When he thinks he's got the P's lined up in a row, I don't think he'll stop team success holding out for a great value, an OK value will be plenty good enough. He might even overpay a bit. He might not like doing it, but he wants what we want, which is to see a WS in Baltimore. So, it's not just the value-equation for a particular FA, it's also the context of the team situation too. I'd say it's *mainly* the context of the team situation that will influence how he sees the value-equation. For example, given how things are this year, I'm sure he thought the Pie experiment was a true bargain. But if the team was about ready, he wouldn't think that at all.

[Pickles]

I think AM will ONLY sign a FA when the player is a great value for the money...If that player is available this offseason and AM wants him, then I think he signs him.

Other than that, he will not spend in FA.

I think I agree with this, and let's follow this out to its natural conclusion:

AM is not likely to sign upper-tier FAs. Those guys are never (almost) baragins.

I'm not sure how I feel about this.

[carolinaoriole]

I think AM will ONLY sign a FA when the player is a great value for the money...If that player is available this offseason and AM wants him, then I think he signs him.

Other than that, he will not spend in FA.

I agree with this statement

And I think that is the genius of Andy Macphail

Look out world this man has our team on the right track!!!!!!!!!!