Andy's Mistakes

[Anonymous]

I wasn't talking to a jury. I was just asking you why you think he coulda done better for Ramon. The criteria around here for circumstantial evidence is extremely weak, like when GoofyTradeRumors.com says a little birdy told them. About Ramon, we didn't even have that. So, I was just wondering why you thought somebody else was dying to pay Ramon's salary for us.

Fair enough, rshack.

At the time of the Ramon trade, I recall that there were rumors swirling about that several clubs were interested in Ramon. Presumably, any team that wanted him would have been willing to give up SOMETHING for him, either players or dollars (and if it's the latter, that doesn't necessarily mean it would have been anything approaching his entire remaining contract). Since I don't consider either Turner or Waring likely big-league prospects for the O's, I would much rather have had any non-trivial amount of dollars rather than the prospects -- and then used those dollars for things like paying above-slot for draft picks (i.e., higher-ceiling prospects).

[Anonymous]

Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Mickolio, Butler, Scott, Patton, Albers, Uehara, Hill. No he didn't aquire Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds in his prime, but I'm not up in the air. Speak for yourself.

Clearly you misunderstood what SG meant by "game changing" talent. He meant that Andy had not yet succeeded in turning this into beach volleyball.

[Pruke]

Not trading Sherrill.

Keeping Sherrill was not a bad move IMO - insurance with Ray coming off injury, there wasn't much of a market and if Sherrill plays well into the break this year & Ray looks good, there's a chance George or Baez can be dealt without murdering our pen. The jury is still out on this one / could be brilliant...

[Singleton]

There haven’t been many, IMO. But starting this past offseason in particular, I believe there have been a few. These are moves that I recall disliking when he pulled the trigger, not those that simply haven’t worked out as hoped-for or as expected. Here are the ones that stand out for me. All of these transactions wasted money that could have been better used elsewhere.

- Not getting enough net dollars recovered in the Ramon trade.

- Not getting even a single dollar recovered in the Freel discard.

- Signing Wigginton to a $6 mil deal rather than going with Salazar.

- Although I’m completely ecstatic that we finally signed Nick to a long-term deal and one which I believe was a pretty fair value for both parties, I still believe we could and should have signed him a year earlier, when it probably would have been much cheaper to do so (as Nick would have had one extra year at risk).

Much ado about nothing. If this is our biggest complaints, then I'm good. As for Nick, we signed him in the midst of a horrible economy when he was likely more open to signing. Very reasonable deal so I don't understand complaining.

[Sports Guy]

Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Mickolio, Butler, Scott, Patton, Albers, Uehara, Hill. No he didn't aquire Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds in his prime, but I'm not up in the air. Speak for yourself.

Jeez...I misspoke...LOL

I meant to say through FA....obviously he has done this is in trades.

[Lucky Jim]

Jeez...I misspoke...LOL

I meant to say through FA....obviously he has done this is in trades.

Yes. And you're not wrong there. I've thought all along that this offseason was the time for him to make a big move through FA (or, failing that, a prospects for bat trade). We pretty obviously need to find a 3B or SS or both.

Beltre and Hardy would be nice additions. Both are struggling mightily this year, but if they're respectable at the end of the year, maybe they're had for a discount.

[Sports Guy]

Yes. And you're not wrong there. I've thought all along that this offseason was the time for him to make a big move through FA (or, failing that, a prospects for bat trade). We pretty obviously need to find a 3B or SS or both.

Beltre and Hardy would be nice additions. Both are struggling mightily this year, but if they're respectable at the end of the year, maybe they're had for a discount.

Hardy is a FA after 2010, not this coming offseason.

BTW, let me clarify something I said...I shouldn't say its a mistake that AM hasn't brought in the FAs, just that he needs to show he will do it.

Agree about Beltre...Really hoping we make a big push for him.

[RShack]

BTW, let me clarify something I said...I shouldn't say its a mistake that AM hasn't brought in the FAs, just that he needs to show he will do it.

He's not gonna do that until he thinks we're just 1 or 2 guys away.

Until the kid-pitchers show up, we aren't.

So, he won't do it until more-than-a-couple of them show up and look right.

[Sports Guy]

He's not gonna do that until he thinks we're just 1 or 2 guys away.

Until the kid-pitchers show up, we aren't.

So, he won't until more-than-a-couple of them show up and look right.

Well, then he is a fool...If you can add game changing talent a year early, you do it.

When the talent is there, go get it.

What happens if the young pitchers don't ever get ready? Just keep sitting around and waiting?

Have to win at some point Shack.

[RShack]

Well, then he is a fool...If you can add game changing talent a year early, you do it.

When the talent is there, go get it.

What happens if the young pitchers don't ever get ready? Just keep sitting around and waiting?

Have to win at some point Shack.

If the kid-P's don't ever get ready then we're screwed regardless. That's why he's got them by the bushel. Now, you can say his plan is wrong but, face it, that's what his plan is. He said that in plain English at the end of 2007, after he scoped things out for a few months and found out things were worse than he thought. There's no mystery about it. We'll find out whether it works or not, but that's what he's gonna do, unless something happens to make him change his mind. So far, I don't see why anything would have changed his mind.

Personally, I think it makes perfect sense. IMO, the most you can argue about is 1 year plus-or-minus about when he should sign a FA bat. Of course, that will be heavily influenced by who's a FA when. And, depending on exactly what happens, he might not even need any (but only if everything goes right, which I'm not counting on).

[Sports Guy]

What's your definition of game changing talent? Adrian Beltre and J.J. Hardy are game changing players?

Borderline game changing talent but they are close enough and putting them with what we have makes us a real team.

[Palmer Esque]

Borderline game changing talent but they are close enough and putting them with what we have makes us a real team.

I just think post roids Beltre is not worth the gamble. I just do not see it.

[Lucky Jim]

If the kid-P's don't ever get ready then we're screwed regardless. That's why he's got them by the bushel. Now, you can say his plan is wrong but, face it, that's what his plan is. He said that in plain English at the end of 2007, after he scoped things out for a few months and found out things were worse than he thought. There's no mystery about it. We'll find out whether it works or not, but that's what he's gonna do, unless something happens to make him change his mind. So far, I don't see why anything would have changed his mind.

Personally, I think it makes perfect sense. IMO, the most you can argue about is 1 year plus-or-minus about when he should sign a FA bat. Of course, that will be heavily influenced by who's a FA when. And, depending on exactly what happens, he might not even need any (but only if everything goes right, which I'm not counting on).

I've never seen a quote that said signing FAs was contingent on MLB success by our young pitchers. I think having a number of pitching options on the verge of the MLB level is substantial, and reliable, enough that AM will look to make a move this offseason.

As for Hardy and Beltre, I don't think they're Teixeira-like talents, but I do think they're the kind of guys we should be looking at.

Sorry about the Hardy reference, though. I knew he was a year away and just didn't think.

That said, a line-up in 2011 with something like

Roberts, 2B

Markakis, RF

Wieters, C

Jones, CF

Scott/Other, DH

Beltre, 3B

Snyder, 1B

Pie/Reimold, LF

Hardy, SS

would be pretty nifty. We'd be getting (arguably) plus defense out of 3B, CF, C, SS, RF and LF. No real weak spots.

There would be decent team speed, and a line-up capable of sending up 8 guys with 20+ HR power. Great discipline at the top of the order, and decent discipline throughout.

Constructing a line-up like that would mean we don't need a Teixeira-like splash. We could arguably get both Hardy and Beltre for a little more than what it would have cost us to get Teixeira ($30m for 4.5 or so WAR from Hardy and something like 3.5 WAR from Beltre versus $25+m a year for a WAR of 4.5 to 5.0 for Teixeira.)

Now, I could be underestimating the future contracts of Hardy and Beltre, but it seems to me that that's exactly the kind of added talent that leads to a strongly competitive team. Grow the game-changers (Markakis, Jones, Wieters) and bring in expensive, but smart, second-tier FAs.

[RShack]

I've never seen a quote that said signing FAs was contingent on MLB success by our young pitchers.

Well, he didn't say it in a single brief declarative sentence. But he did say:

• That he wasn't going after big FA's because we weren't just 1 or 2 guys away from being good. The implication is that he thinks you do that only when you're 1 or 2 guys away.
• That he believes in growing arms, not buying them.
• That he believes what big-time FA is good for is buying bats.

Ergo, he thinks that you get big-time FA's when you're a bat or two away from being good. And, unless we've got the pitching solved, we're not there.

I think having a number of pitching options on the verge of the MLB level is substantial, and reliable, enough that AM will look to make a move this offseason.

Well, I guess it comes down to whether you think kid-P's in the MiL's comprise reliable big-league pitching. Personally, I think AM is gonna want to actually see at least a couple of them show up and look right first, but I could be wrong. Maybe he'll trust MiL progress and just take the last-biggest-hardest step on faith without seeing any of them actually come through in the bigs. I don't believe it, but I could be wrong. We'll find out.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I guess it comes down to whether you think kid-P's in the MiL's comprise reliable big-league pitching. Personally, I think AM is gonna want to actually see at least a couple of them show up and look right first, but I could be wrong. Maybe he'll trust MiL progress and just take the last-biggest-hardest step on faith without seeing any of them actually come through in the bigs. I don't believe it, but I could be wrong. We'll find out.

I agree w/ SG. If that's the case, it's an enormous mistake.