What will Bedard Command if we extend him??? Can we Afford Him?

[geschinger]

I agree but we are going to have to give him extra money then we would have had we not ticked him off the first time we approached him with an extension.

I don't believe that. It's business, nothing personal. Put a good offer on the table, if he takes it great. If he doesn't, great - we'll trade him for a boatload of talent. Win/Win.

[pactman12]

After hearing about Zambrano's 5 year, 91 million dollar extension from the Cubs, what will it take to extend Bedard.......especially if he ends up winning the CY.

After apparently being insulted by the O's initially lowballing him, it might take and overpayment to get this guy to stay here.

5/100??........6/115??......

I don't know, it would take alot but I think he would be worth it.

I think some people on this board undervalue his impact. It is extremely difficult to find an absolute Ace in this league and it is nearly impossible to win the big one without an Ace.

I love potential we could get in return, but if Bedard keeps it up, he will be worth absolutely every penny. As Frobby said yesterday, since Trembley became manager we are 11-0 when Bedard pitches and 16-25 when he doesn't. You can't put a price on that record......well you can, and it'll prolly be about 20 million a year.

[RVAbird]

After hearing about Zambrano's 5 year, 91 million dollar extension from the Cubs, what will it take to extend Bedard.......especially if he ends up winning the CY.

After apparently being insulted by the O's initially lowballing him, it might take and overpayment to get this guy to stay here.

5/100??........6/115??......

I don't know, it would take alot but I think he would be worth it.

I think some people on this board undervalue his impact. It is extremely difficult to find an absolute Ace in this league and it is nearly impossible to win the big one without an Ace.

I love potential we could get in return, but if Bedard keeps it up, he will be worth absolutely every penny. As Frobby said yesterday, since Trembley became manager we are 11-0 when Bedard pitches and 16-25 when he doesn't. You can't put a price on that record......well you can, and it'll prolly be about 20 million a year.

Sweet Jeebus. Zambrano and Bedard's situations are not related at all. 4/55 or at the most 5/65 should get it done. And I'm being generous.

[JohnD]

You really think so? Because I don't think that'll be enough.

[RVAbird]

Just to clarify, let me break down the 4/55 deal.

Bedard should be able to get 13-15 mil* in arbitration over the next two years. I'll be generous and say we should buy out his two arb. years for 15 mil. Then we grant him two more years at 18 mil per, bringing it to a total of 4/51. If you think he's worth 20 mil per in his two post FA-years (which is the most I'd be willing to go), then that brings it to 4/55. This is more than fair. Granting him a fifth year (at age 33ish) is very risky IMO but if we can lock him down by granting 10 mil or less for that 5th year I think we should consider it. Therefore, I think we might be able to get away with 4/50 and would be willing to go as high as 5/65.

*Total for two years.

[scOtt]

Just to clarify, let me break down the 4/55 deal.

Bedard should be able to get 13-15 mil in arbitration over the next two years. I'll be generous and say we should buy out his two arb. years for 15 mil. Then we grant him two more years at 18 mil per, bringing it to a total of 4/51. If you think he's worth 20 mil per in his two post FA-years (which is the most I'd be willing to go), then that brings it to 4/55. This is more than fair. Granting him a fifth year (at age 33ish) is very risky IMO but if we can lock him down by granting 10 mil or less for that 5th year I think we should consider it. Therefore, I think we might be able to get away with 4/50 and would be willing to go as high as 5/65.

Total? For two years? Yeah, that's about right. Then straight into the 14, 16, 18... range. Depends on how long the deal is. 3/30, 4/45, 5/65, 6/85. All these are in range. And money well damn spent IMO. Only restriction I'd put on would be 5 years total, 6 years if backed into an inescapable corner.

[NICK]

I've thought about this and feel 5/75 is more than fair, and if we offer that, in my opinion, Bedard will take it. However this needs to be offered this offseason not at the last possible minute as we have seen the Orioles do times before with other targeted players or their own players. I don't want to worry about this guy heading into free agency after '09 get it done this winter. I was shocked to see some sites saying Bedard will be offered about 20 mil per etc. Trust me, i know he has been insanely good but its only his second good yr, and first dominant one, has baseballs economics gotten that nuts? BTW (off topic)for the record i also dont see A-rod making that 30+ mill people have whispered of as well.

[scOtt]

I've thought about this and feel 5/75 is more than fair, and if we offer that, in my opinion, Bedard will take it. However this needs to be offered this offseason not at the last possible minute as we have seen the Orioles do times before with other targeted players or their own players.

That's it right there! We need to make Erikkkk KNOW that we want him here. Blow him away! Break the bank.

[RVAbird]

Total? For two years? Yeah, that's about right. Then straight into the 14, 16, 18... range. Depends on how long the deal is. 3/30, 4/45, 5/65, 6/85. All these are in range. And money well damn spent IMO. Only restriction I'd put on would be 5 years total, 6 years if backed into an inescapable corner.

Yeah, total. Honestly, we'll probably have to overspend to keep Bedard here but the numbers I posted are objectively sound. I'd be fine with overspending some, he's an elite player, but the key is to keep the amount of years to 4 or 5.

[weemnj]

Yeah, total. Honestly, we'll probably have to overspend to keep Bedard here but the numbers I posted are objectively sound. I'd be fine with overspending some, he's an elite player, but the key is to keep the amount of years to 4 or 5.

This is where I fear the problem comes in---from his perspective 6 or 7 years would be the goal. With his reliance on the curve, LOOKOUT!

[Fairfax Bird]

Better question, what will he make in his next two years of arbitration. He makes 4.3 this year.

Will he make $8 and the $11 in arbitration the next two years. If so my offer to him would be 3 years and 42million, buying out one year of free agency and ensuring he would make $10 million more than he could in arbitration.

[Mackus]

Better question, what will he make in his next two years of arbitration. He makes 4.3 this year.

Will he make $8 and the $11 in arbitration the next two years. If so my offer to him would be 3 years and 42million, buying out one year of free agency and ensuring he would make $10 million more than he could in arbitration.

He actually makes $3.4M this year, not $4.3M.

If he hits an absolute homerun in arbitration he'll get $6M this year and then about $10M in 2009. I think any contract extension will pay him about $14-15M total over those two years.

4/$48M or 5/$65M is the most it will take, and that's being very generous. People here GROSSLY overestimate how much it will take to extend Bedard.

[rosekeister]

Hypothetical contract offer to Bedard.

2008 $8 million

2009 $12 million

Then 2-3 years at $18 million per year.

That's 4/$56 million or 5/$74 million.

The arbitration years tell Bedard how much the team values him. The 2-3 years at $18 million tell Bedard the O's are willing to pay him top dollar. In return if Bedard turns down the offer, he is telling the Orioles he doesn't want to be in Baltimore and the team can reassess it's next move.

[Sports Guy]

Haven't seen this thread in about 20 hours. lol

[Dr. FLK]

Whatever he wants can be afforded. This team isn't poor. They just need to decide whether he's worth it. And, they also need to weigh the talent they could get in return via trade. But, if they really want to keep him, they certanily can afford it. We aren't the Royals.