Roch: O's may look to get a big bat this offseason

[Robbie]

Andrew (Pontiac, MI)

Does Reimold, Hernandez, Erbe, and Snyder get you Adrian Gonzalez?

Jerry Crasnick

(12:53 PM)

Andrew, Not for me. There's no way the Orioles would get Adrian Gonzalez without throwing Tillman, Matusz or Arrieta into the deal.

We have no need for either of them next year. We are not going to win next year with or without them. In a perfect world they would be free agents after next year. We should not give up a ton of prospects for a player that as of right now probably doesn't even make us make us a favorite for a playoff spot in 2011. However, after the 2011 season I would be one hundred percent for signing one of them as a free agent. That is the year in which everyone expects us to be in the playoffs and a power hitting first basemen that be expected to give us 40 home runs will help get us there.

[JBugaboo]

No way I take Fukodome, Cameron, or Beltran over Jones.

"Of course, this is just a quick look through the league without in-depth sabermetrics or age/contract situations. It sure looks to me like Jones is far from irreplaceable... but in reality you can trim the list down to about 8-10 comparable young players with talent."

-JBugaboo, a few minutes ago

[JTrea81]

Couldn't agree more.

The question I have is: is trading for Adrian Gonzales or Prince Fielder worth giving up valuable pieces, instead of signing a Thome, Vlad or Abreu to a short term deal? Bear in mind, these three hitters outclass any veteran the Orioles have signed in the past few years, in spite of their age.

That's assuming they can maintain their production. Thome is 39 and while he has 23 HR, he only has 11 doubles and is batting .254, Vlad has only been hitting in July and August and was horrid the previous months and his back is a major concern. And Abreu while he gets on base, is hardly the power threat we'd be looking for. None of these guys qualify as bat that you can consistently depend on for power and production in the middle of the lineup IMO. You are going to get what you pay for and in some cases, less...

I have to think with MacPhail's comments that his eyes are pointed towards the FA class of 2011. As are mine.

Which means competing in 2012. Are you really willing to stand for two more seasons of not competing for the playoffs? It doesn't have to be that long with the Orioles' resources.

[JBugaboo]

The bottom line (to borrow Ray Ray's phrase) is that we should move Jones if the right deal is presented itself. Just like anyone and everyone else on the team.

But it's all hypothetical. I seriously doubt Jonesy's going anywhere.

[JBugaboo]

JTrea, let me correct myself: I mean the free agent class of 2010-11, which means competing in 2011. Which is what AM said to his team from jump street.

You make good points regarding the three aging vets, which is why they will all likely be on the market and not hogged up by the big boys this offseason. Two points:

A) they are better players than we've been bringing in, and

B) they have the pedigree to where young players can look up to them (well, not sure how receptive Vlad would be to that)

[JBugaboo]

BTW, on a tangent...

How can you get motivated day-in, day-out when you're playing on a team that has more or less been told that winning doesn't matter this season? And you wonder why we're struggling!

I still say we have the in-house talent to compete NOW. And I'll keep saying it. It's about execution.

[/TANGENT]

[El Gordo]

No, he's a very good defender compared to all major league outfielders, Il Capitano. To be an average major league center fielder you have to be good, by definition. Just being an average MLB center fielder is an asset to a good team, especially when your glove isn't your only positive.

You don't have to be Franklin Gutierrez to be a positive contributor to a defense. Jones is either the best or the 2nd-best outfielder on the Orioles, certainly better than Markakis and miles ahead of Reimold and Scott.

According to UZR, AJ is 55th among all ML OF for defense. That doesn't sound to me like a very good defender compared to all ML OF, but I guess it's that pesky SSS. Wait til next year.:rolleyestf:

[JTrea81]

JTrea, let me correct myself: I mean the free agent class of 2010-11, which means competing in 2011. Which is what AM said to his team from jump street.

You make good points regarding the three aging vets, which is why they will all likely be on the market and not hogged up by the big boys this offseason. Two points:

A) they are better players than we've been bringing in, and

B) they have the pedigree to where young players can look up to them (well, not sure how receptive Vlad would be to that)

I suggest you look at the FA class which I've posted in this thread.

Unless you want Mauer, the big bat in their prime that we can sign to a multi year deal simply isn't there.

After 2011 is when all the big names are elligible to be available, but who knows how many will be locked up or traded to another team and locked up by then...

[DrungoHazewood]

According to UZR, AJ is 55th among all ML OF for defense. That doesn't sound to me like a very good defender compared to all ML OF, but I guess it's that pesky SSS. Wait til next year.:rolleyestf:

Yes, if you would wait until next year instead of cherry picking SSS stats we'd all be better off.

[VTmook213]

I wouldn't take McLouth either. He's a bum!

[AlbNYfan]

My biggest fear of signing an aging vet is that they may be just padding their accounts for x million dollars one last time. They will be coming to a franchise that has no expectation to win and their effort may show just that. I doubt very much they will be doing much nurturing of the young players.

[El Gordo]

Yes, if you would wait until next year instead of cherry picking SSS stats we'd all be better off.

So I guess that using any numbers from a less that 3 year sample is a fools errand when trying to evaluate any aspect of a players game? I think you take the SSS argument to a ridiculous extreme, when it suits your purposes. The defensive metrics, which are not as accurate as we would like them to be, but do have a value in appraising a players performance, suggest that Jones has been a poor OF this season. That may be due to a number of factors, injuries, weight gain, decline in skills, poor positioning. They don't indicate that he can't improve, but it would be silly to ignore them altogether because of SSS.

[JBugaboo]

If that's the case, then there is no point to signing them. Unfortunately, we're on the outside looking in, so we don't know for sure what Thome or Abreu would bring chemistry-wise to the Orioles.

On second thought, maybe it is fortunate we the masses don't know...

[DrungoHazewood]

So I guess that using any numbers from a less that 3 year sample is a fools errand when trying to evaluate any aspect of a players game? I think you take the SSS argument to a ridiculous extreme, when it suits your purposes. The defensive metrics, which are not as accurate as we would like them to be, but do have a value in appraising a players performance, suggest that Jones has been a poor OF this season. That may be due to a number of factors, injuries, weight gain, decline in skills, poor positioning. They don't indicate that he can't improve, but it would be silly to ignore them altogether because of SSS.

Please, point out where I said to ignore them altogether. I specifically said that they could be the beginning of a trend, but could also be explained by a lot of other things. You don't make snap decisions based on incomplete, inconclusive, or inconsistent data.

Here's exactly what I said:

The stats don't lie, he probably hasn't played as well this year as last. What the defensive stats do say, though, is that you can't have 100% confidence in one year's worth of data. A one-year, UZR or +/- number is kind of like a few months of OPS, or one year of park factor. It means something, but the noise in the data is enough that you have pretty big error bars.

Jones may have had a poor year, defense slumps just like anything else. He might have had tougher chances this year. He might be nursing a little injury. His added bulk might be limiting his range. He might be positioning himself badly. It might carry over next year, it might not.

All we know for sure is that the largest sample we have puts him a little above average, and that fielding ability tends to peak early.

You're the one who takes a couple months of +/- numbers with huge amounts of uncertainty built in and suggests moving a Gold Glove caliber RFer to first base because you're sure he's now awful. I'm sure you were agitating for Palmer to be exiled to the pen when his ERA spiked to 3.88 in June of '70.

[El Gordo]

Please, point out where I said to ignore them altogether. I specifically said that they could be the beginning of a trend, but could also be explained by a lot of other things. You don't make snap decisions based on incomplete, inconclusive, or inconsistent data.

Here's exactly what I said:

You're the one who takes a couple months of +/- numbers with huge amounts of uncertainty built in and suggests moving a Gold Glove caliber RFer to first base because you're sure he's now awful. I'm sure you were agitating for Palmer to be exiled to the pen when his ERA spiked to 3.88 in June of '70.

That suggestion was based on a ranking of the relative defensive abilities of our OF. I would rank them Pie, Jones, Markakis, Scott, Reimold in that order. An OF of Scott in LF, Pie in CF and Jones in RF would be better defensively IMO, than and OF of Riemold in LF, Jones in CF and Markakis in RF or Pie in LF, Jones, in CF and Marakis in RF. Since Nick likes fooling around at 1B and is fairly athletic, I woud put him there, before I would put Scott there. I don't think Nick is a GG caliber OF, I think his +11 from last year is pretty much his ceiling defensively. He's a better OF than Scott, but would be better at 1B than Scott IMO, and Scott in LF gives us the best defensive option there.