Cowan finally back and Tolliver debuts!

[alexei606]

1) You keep stating that Cowan and Olson were "about the same level prospect wise" when they were drafted. In a number of separate posts I've pointed out objective evidence that Olson was a much better prospect when he was drafted. I haven't seen any evidence from you on this, so you're definitely entitled to your opinion, but don't state it like it's a fact.

2) I absolutely can use signing bonus as point of reference. The slotting system is just a recommendation and does not determine what bonus players receive. For players drafted below where their talent indicates (as Cowan was), teams have to pay above slot to get them to sign. If Cowan was the equivalent of a supplemental first round talent, as you're suggesting, he would be crazy to sign for $175K. Sure, draft bonus isn't a perfect measure of prospect status, but at least it's an objective datapoint, which is better than any evidence you've given to support your opinion.

This year the Orioles signed 5 guys drafted after Cowan for higher bonuses by my count. If Cowan's a 1st round supplemental talent, then the Orioles have a historic level of talent influx coming into the system, with 5 other 1st round talents drafted in the later rounds. Cowan wasn't an easy college sign either -- he was a JC guy with a scholarship to a top-tier baseball program, so it's pretty fair to compare him to the O's other younger draftees / tough signs.

One of these other signees, Brenden Webb, was also a JC guy that the O's bought out of a scholarship to a high D-1 program. He signed for $250K ($75K more than Cowan), and I believe Tony, after speaking with Joe Jordan, said Webb was considered a 3rd-4th round talent. That's yet another datapoint that there's absolutely no way that Cowan was considered a supplemental first round talent at the time of the draft. Doesn't mean he can't develop into one, and I certainly hope that he does.

3) Not sure where you're getting the idea that I use BA as the prospect gospel. I was trying to find relevant (and hopefully objective) datapoints to compare Cowan and Olson, and I found 3, one of which was their relative BA ranking. In the discussions, I've also come up with 2 relevant comparable draftees (Hernandez and Webb). So, I'm not relying on BA or using them as "gospel."

Good to hear that you don't "take another prospect ranking and take their word for it," but I would love to hear the information sources that you are using to base your opinion on. So far, the only one I can gleam is the quick one paragraph draft blurb that I linked to before. You mention Cowan's quality pitches and "stuff", so I wasn't sure if you'd watched any of his games or spoken to scouts to come up with this, or if this is also from the draft blurb. I've watched his MLB draft video, along with hundreds of others, and unless you have a scouting background (I definitely don't), it's very, very hard to determine much from those.

Another post I agree with - I'll let you continue on.

[QBsILLEST1]

Alright, we are gonna hafta agree to disagree. I can see where your coming from in the fact that Olson was a supplemental pick and Cowan woulda been a 2nd rounder at best, I guess Im crossing my opinion that Cowan is going to be a better prospect with that he is already. As I said, I like upside and projection, so I if I were given the chance to choose between those 2, I personally would choose Cowan. I do think Cowan will prove to be a better prospect after and during the 2010 season. No, I have not spoken to scouts, I dont talk to scouts, I dont even know scouts, I have seen a few writeups on him, Ive spoken to someone who has seen him pitch, I have seen a few videos of him, he is betteer than Olson IMO....

[QBsILLEST1]

So far tonight, through 1IP 0H 0R 0ER 0BB 3K

Very nice way to start off the game.....Id venture to say he may be a level ahead of his competition here. He probably should go to Delmarva next season, but if he does well there then promote him to Freddyville

[QBsILLEST1]

And since the thread title still mentions Tolliver, he threw 3 scoreless frames yesterday as well.....

And now through 2 IP 0H 0r 0ER 0BB 5K

[QBsILLEST1]

Now, through 5IP 3H 0R 0ER 2BB 6K and his ERA on the season is down to 2.25

His ERA would be ridiulous if it werent for his one blow up outing he had in the beginning.....I really hope he comes back next year pitching this dominantly.....