KC Star: O's want Butler or Gordon for Pie?

[Leitch]

Ok, enough is enough with this man crush on Butler. He is a solid hitter, but he is nowhere near the player Gonzalez is and he will never become that player. He may be Adam Dunn lite in that he can hit for power, but less than Dunn and neither player can field a lick.

He most certainly can be every bit the hitter that Adrian Gonzalez is, although I've always heard he's a born DH. He is not Adam Dunn, they have completely different skillsets.

Here's what Billy Butler did the last half of the 2009 season, at age 23:

G  	GS  	Rslt  	PA  	AB  	R  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	RBI  	BB  	IBB  	SO  	HBP  	SH  	SF  	ROE  	GDP  	SB  	CS  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS81 	81 	31-50 	361 	321 	44 	101 	29 	1 	14 	59 	35 	2 	53 	2 	0 	3 	1 	10 	1 	0 	.315 	.382 	.542 	.924162 	162 		722 	642 	88 	202 	58 	2 	28 	118 	70 	4 	106 	4 	0 	6 	2 	20 	2 	0 			

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=butlebi03&t=b&year=2009&share=1.16#295-375-sum:batting_gamelogs

And he's got room to grow from there. 3, 4, maybe 5 years from now he'll be peaking. Here's the 20 best historical comps through his age-22(2008) season from his 2009 PECOTA card:

Rank 	Hitter 	Year 	Score 	Trend 	Rank 	Hitter 	Year 	Score 	Trend1 	Dave Winfield 	1974 	38 		11 	Dwight Evans 	1975 	29 	2 	Prince Fielder 	2007 	36 		12 	Rondell White 	1995 	29 	3 	Boog Powell 	1964 	35 		13 	Larry Parrish 	1977 	28 	4 	Joe Adcock 	1951 	34 		14 	Charlie Spikes 	1974 	28 	5 	Ed Kranepool 	1968 	34 		15 	Tommy Davis 	1962 	28 	6 	John Ellis 	1971 	33 		16 	John Olerud 	1991 	27 	7 	Casey Kotchman 	2006 	32 		17 	Jeff Francoeur 	2007 	26 	8 	Tony Horton 	1968 	30 		18 	Michael Barrett 	2000 	25 	9 	George Scott 	1967 	30 		19 	Gary Carter 	1977 	25 	10 	Joe Torre 	1963 	30 		20 	Chris Chambliss 	1972 	23 	

Add in a year where he clearly saw some major growth and you're looking at a pretty serious stick.

[rhall]

They actually have several I'd like to get, but--as you say--they would be the major pieces in the deal, not Kila K.

(EDIT: Yeah Mike Montgomery is one of them, but he isn't going anywhere. He's probably their #1 prospect now--their Tillman).

TOR upside and closer to proximity to the majors means that Aaron Crow will fight Montgomery for that top spot. I actually wonder if Danny Duffy will rank higher than Montgomery, too. He's at the same level, keeps pitching great, only about 6 months older and has a little more power to his repetoire. Montgomery has more projection on his frame though.

But I agree, either way, Montgomery isn't going anywhere.

[hoosiers]

It's kind of interesting to ponder who should have more trade value - Pie or Gordon. I was a huge Gordon fan three years ago.

Gordon's been a pretty big disappointment as a MLer.

At this point, I think I would lean to Pie as the one more likely to have a productive ML career.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Where's El Gordo when you need him? Anyone got the FB numbers on Butler at 1B? Where can I find defensive metrics on players? I think Butler is a fine hitter and love his opposite field stroke. However, my feeling is that he's a liability in the field until shown otherwise.

Strictly eyeball impression: he is a work in progress. A DH type when he came up, significantly improved this season, in fact improved over the course of the season. Where he ends up is anybody's guess, but the metrics won't give a decent snapshot of a moving target.

[mweb]

Where's El Gordo when you need him? Anyone got the FB numbers on Butler at 1B? Where can I find defensive metrics on players? I think Butler is a fine hitter and love his opposite field stroke. However, my feeling is that he's a liability in the field until shown otherwise.

He had a -7.4 UZR/150 last year.

[Leitch]

Where's El Gordo when you need him? Anyone got the FB numbers on Butler at 1B? Where can I find defensive metrics on players? I think Butler is a fine hitter and love his opposite field stroke. However, my feeling is that he's a liability in the field until shown otherwise.

I don't have any numbers, but here are some amusing quotes:

Given that his defense has improved from `historically awful` all the way to `borderline playable' date='` we may even get to enjoy him thundering around the outfield for a few years before he makes the inevitable transition to career DH. Lack of defensive value or not, he`s a keeper.[/quote']

Originally drafted as a third baseman, where one scout once referred to him as, "the worst defensive pro player I've ever seen," Butler's move to left has not been anything close to a success, as he almost makes Ron Kittle look nimble out there. First base is the next likely stop, but designated hitter could be the final destination. No matter where he ends up, the bat will play.

Anyway, it's been consensus since he started showing up on prospect lists that he's a DH, I don't think the numbers are necessary.

[rhall]

It's kind of interesting to ponder who should have more trade value - Pie or Gordon. I was a huge Gordon fan three years ago.

Gordon's been a pretty big disappointment as a MLer.

At this point, I think I would lean to Pie as the one more likely to have a productive ML career.

Yeah, I've been thinking along the same lines. I liked Gordon a good bit as he stormed up to the big leagues, but even back then there were people who had their doubts. Some scouts thought his swing would need to be tweaked coming out of college, that it had a little of that aluminum-bat-swing to it. And Gordon spent so little time in the minors that it's hard to tell what happened. Did he just pass through so fast that pitchers couldn't get a scouting report on where to attack him? Did he inflate his numbers by monopolizing on young pitchers' mistakes? Then he messed up our evaluation of his MLB learning curve by needing hip surgery. He's an interesting case to look at. Then we're comparing him to an up-and-down, hyped up and then put down prospect in our own Felix Pie. There are a lot of places for opinions to land on this one.

IMO, Pie will be a more dynamic player, but given our team needs, I'd be interested in swapping the two.

[T2E2C]

If KC wants Pie, they ought to throw in Bryants but they can keep the loaf of Wonderbread sitting on the counter. When i lived in KC, there was an all-pie & only pie restaurant.

[Arthur_Bryant]

If KC wants Pie, they ought to throw in Bryants but they can keep the loaf of Wonderbread sitting on the counter.

Oh pshaw. Arthur Bryant's smoked brisket on Wonder bread is the food of the gods.

Satchel Paige, Thurgood Marshall, and Harry Truman all said so, and you know they can't all be wrong.

[wildcard]

If Butler was a any Oriole, Bergy would probably request to throw batting practice just so he could hit him----------repeatedly.

[El Gordo]

Where's El Gordo when you need him? Anyone got the FB numbers on Butler at 1B? Where can I find defensive metrics on players? I think Butler is a fine hitter and love his opposite field stroke. However, my feeling is that he's a liability in the field until shown otherwise.

He was a FB -4 in '08, and a -7 in '09. But I can't tell you what that means because SG and Drungo say I don't understand these numbers. If you don't know, you'll have to ask them.:rolleyestf:

[delinodeshields]

No offense, but Gonzalez is a plus fielder and hitter. Butler is going to be very good, but if the Orioles called and offered Matusz for Butler the Royals would jump all over that. Matusz is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, Butler was never that highly touted.

The Royals have the best pitcher in baseball already. They need Butler's offense way more then Matusz's pitching. Plus Butler is equally young so age is not a factor. Matusz would not nearly be worth it to them.

I should also have made it clear that when I compare him to Gonzalez, I'm looking look at offense only. I'm simply focusing on the value of his bat.

Why do you think Billy Butler will be a superstar"? Care to provide any statistics to back this up?

In terms of amazing things, again, I'd like to know what exactly he's done that's "amazing". He's shown that he's a very good contact hitter with average power for a 1B.

Obviously Butler's value compared to Gonzalez is related to his much cheaper contract and much younger age. But Gonzalez is a much better offensive (and defensive) player than Butler, and I expect him to continue to be better than Butler over at least the next 2 seasons. What Gonzalez has done in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball in one of the worst lineups in baseball over the past 3 seasons is what is truly amazing.

Indeed a lot of the value when compared to Gonzalez comes from his age and contract. What Butler did at only 23 is what I am looking at when I say hes amazing.

51 doubles 21 HRs 93 RBIs .854 OPS

At the same age Gonzalez was still with Texas, playing in only 43 games.

Butlers best days are far ahead of him. At 23 he was second in the league (behind Brob) in doubles. I consider that amazing.

It's his potential to grow over the next 4 years that makes him so exciting, and in turn, so valuable.

[theobird]

I have no problem with high expectations of Bell, but you (and a lot of others) are drastically underrating Gordon, whose primary flaw seems to have been that he hasn't turned into George Brett II.

Gordon has had three seasons in MLB. It should be less than that, since he was clearly rushed (not just in retrospect--that was a common observation at the start of 07).

So he had a mediocre rookie season--still worth two WAR--followed by an 08 with a .783 OPS (109 OPS+, 2.6 WAR), then an 09 that was basically lost to injury. A year ago he looked like a talented young guy ready to break out into his peak years. There's no way of knowing what might have happened absent the injury, but that's no reason to discount him so deeply, and it's a far more solid career resume than Pie had at this time last year.

I understand the disappointment, but "reclamation project" is totally off the charts. There's virtually no valid comparison between Gordon today and Pie a year ago, except that they are both talented and both formerly overhyped.

Arthur Bryant, I have some perspective on the Royals, since I live in Nebraska. You are the Royals analyst, and I think you have done a real nice job in representing that team for us here. My question for you is this: Since they just let Jacobs go (Thank God), do you think that a Pie and Scott for Gordon and Dejesus deal could have wings? I know that the Royals are always pretty constrained by $$$$, and they would like to shed some payroll. I think Dejesus is owed around 11 mil over the next two years. Meche is owed about 24 Mil over the next two years. If they wouldn't do my first proposal, how about Gordon, DeJesus and Meche for Pie, Scott, Guthrie, Hernandez and Hughes?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Since they just let Jacobs go (Thank God), do you think that a Pie and Scott for Gordon and Dejesus deal could have wings? I know that the Royals are always pretty constrained by $$$$, and they would like to shed some payroll. I think Dejesus is owed around 11 mil over the next two years. Meche is owed about 24 Mil over the next two years. If they wouldn't do my first proposal, how about Gordon, DeJesus and Meche for Pie, Scott, Guthrie, Hernandez and Hughes?

DeJesus will make $4.7 this year and the club has a $6MM option for 2011, with a $500K buyout. So really the obligation to DeJesus is just $5.2MM, and he's a reasonably useful player.

OTOH Scott is getting expensive. He made $2.4 MM this season and will probably get somewhere near DeJesus money in the coming year, if not more. That's a wash. Gordon is entering his first arb season, and will probably get $2-3MM, so for 2010 that's not oppressive. Therefore it comes down to talent on the field, and I'm not sure the Royals will do Gordon and DeJesus for Pie and Scott, unless they really want Pie or have a secret desire to get rid of Gordon.

Meche makes a lot of money, but he has been worth it until 2009, and I don't have a sense of how eager the Royals might be to get rid of him.

The contract they would really like to get out from under is the $12MM owed to Jose Guillen, who is virtually useless to the O's, the Royals, and everybody else. I just can't imagine AM taking on even half of that contract, though.

A name that hasn't been mentioned is Kyle Farnsworth, who is owed $4.5MM for 2010 and $500K for the inevitable 2011 buyout. Your first deal would probably go down if AM agreed to take on at least $3-4MM of that.