2 great Posnanski articles RE: HoF, sabermetrics, Blyleven and Raines

[Moose Milligan]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/12/17/posnanski.tim.raines/index.html

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/12/22/bert.blyleven/index.html

[lint06]

When I was a teenager living in Kansas City in the 1990's I used to read Posnanski all the time. He's always been a tremendous talent, and in that SABR article his arguments are great. I'm not big into the stats beyond, say, OBP, but when I read Posnanski's article, I get why they are good indicators.

We have a lot of people here who are proponents of this alphabet soup of stats but they hardly ever show why these stats work, they just tell, and for a lot of people, that doesn't work. This works--I'd be much more open to learning this stuff now.

Also, yes, Blyleven should be in.

[RShack]

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than:

• Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Combined.

• Roger Clemens and Chris Carpenter. Combined.

• Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Mark Buehrle. Combined.

• Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina and Brandon Webb. Combined.

• Orel Hershiser, Curt Schilling, Johan Santana and Bartolo Colon. Combined.

• Dave Stieb and Jack Morris. Combined.

• New York Yankees pitchers have had since 1988. Combined.

• The entire American League in 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006 and... every year going back to 1992.

He also has more shutouts than every single pitcher of his era except Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan, Hall of Famers who each have exactly ONE more shutout than Bert Blyleven.

[stuff deleted]

There have been only 27 pitchers in baseball history sturdy enough to throw 4,000 innings in the big leagues. Only eight of them are not in the Hall of Fame, and four of those -- Johnson, Clemens, Maddux and Glavine -- will be soon*. So these are some of the best ever. And when you compare Bert Blyleven to every pitcher in baseball history who threw 4,000 innings, his 118 ERA+ ties him for 10th overall. Every other pitcher who threw 4,000 innings with an ERA+ of better than 110 is in or going to the Hall of Fame.

This whole thing is *so* ridiculous.

Why the morons who vote don't put him in is completely beyond me.

Given who he played for, it doesn't surprise me that much that they missed him at first. But by now, this is insane...

[Moose Milligan]

This whole thing is *so* ridiculous.

Why the morons who vote don't put him in is completely beyond me.

Given who he played for, it doesn't surprise me that much that they missed him at first. But by now, this is insane...

I think Blyleven gets in eventually. I don't think Raines gets in at all.

The funny thing about Blyleven is that his supporters point to his lack of playing for good teams....however, he did win two rings.

[rhall]

I think Blyleven gets in eventually. I don't think Raines gets in at all.

The funny thing about Blyleven is that his supporters point to his lack of playing for good teams....however, he did win two rings.

IMO, this is sad. Raines was one of the best lead-off hitters to ever play the game. His career had both longevity and a peak that placed him as one of the most dominant & impactful talents of his era. It's mind-boggling to me that Lou Brock can get in on his first ballot and Raines struggles to get 25% of the vote.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think Blyleven gets in eventually. I don't think Raines gets in at all.

The funny thing about Blyleven is that his supporters point to his lack of playing for good teams....however, he did win two rings.

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/12/28/daily-blyleven-12-28/

One of a thousand times Posnanski alone has pointed out:

Blyleven’s teams without him had a .496 winning percentage

I also saw an analysis done that suggested that if you switched Blyleven and Jim Palmer, so that each pitched for all the same teams as the other over the years, Blyleven likely would have ended up with well over 300 wins while Palmer drops down towards 240 or even fewer. Wish I could remember where it was.

[hoosiers]

IMO, Raines stats are a no-brainer to get in - especially with that OBP over his career - phenomenal.

I've seen positive and negative articles on Blyleven, but the statistics make for a very strong case for him as well.

These guys seem to all short because of ridiculous intangibles like lack of WS rings and not being from NY, Boston or another city with better publicity.

[Boy Howdy]

Blyleven should get in for this t-shirt:

http://www.foulballs.net/2008/05/bert-blyleven-loves-farting.html

[kurting0]

Raines was dominant for many years. He was the NL's Rickey Henderson. He could beat you in so many ways, just an amazingly fun player. He went to rehab for a cocaine problem, but it was not a long term issue. I am guessing that is effecting his vote totals because if you base your vote on numbers, performance, or comparing him to his peers or the era, he should be a shoo-in. After his time in rehab, under the tutelage of Andre Dawson he was thought of as a model citizen, example to younger players, and late in his career, coach on the field. I cannot figure how he is not a hall of famer.

[rhall]

Raines was dominant for many years. He was the NL's Rickey Henderson. He could beat you in so many ways, just an amazingly fun player. He went to rehab for a cocaine problem, but it was not a long term issue. I am guessing that is effecting his vote totals because if you base your vote on numbers, performance, or comparing him to his peers or the era, he should be a shoo-in. After his time in rehab, under the tutelage of Andre Dawson he was thought of as a model citizen, example to younger players, and late in his career, coach on the field. I cannot figure how he is not a hall of famer.

Yeah, I think Raines' main problems are the cocaine incident you mentioned, his lack of 3,000 hits, and most voters' refusal to admit the importance/impact of OBP and SB success rate.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yeah, I think Raines' main problems are the cocaine incident you mentioned...

Didn't hurt Paul Moliter, and I wonder how many of the people who would penalize Raines for it voted for Moliter and downplayed the same thing.

[Moose Milligan]

Didn't hurt Paul Moliter, and I wonder how many of the people who would penalize Raines for it voted for Moliter and downplayed the same thing.

Molitor's problem didn't last that long. Raines was the one who was diving headfirst into bases caue he was carrying vials of it in his back pocket.

That said, it didn't derail his career like Strawberry. It shouldn't be an issue.

[sakata_catching]

Didn't hurt Paul Moliter, and I wonder how many of the people who would penalize Raines for it voted for Moliter and downplayed the same thing.

This point is well-made by Posnanski, and certainly well taken ... but then again I question how many people actually remember that Molitor was implicated in the cocaine trials, as opposed to Raines, who will forever be remembered as The Guy Who Always Slid In Headfirst So As Not Break The Vial Of Blow In His Back Pocket.

Not saying it's right; just sayin'.

[DrungoHazewood]

This whole thing is *so* ridiculous.

Why the morons who vote don't put him in is completely beyond me.

Given who he played for, it doesn't surprise me that much that they missed him at first. But by now, this is insane...

I'm a huge supporter of Blyleven's HOF case, but the shutouts thing is a pretty poor way of showing how great he was. Except for that throwaway sentence about Ryan and Seaver all the comps are of Blyleven to guys who pitched in a different era where complete games were rare. Of course he's going to have more shutouts.

I mean, Milt Pappas has more shutouts than Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown, combined.

Tommy John has as many shutouts as Bret Saberhagen, John Smoltz, and Roy Halladay, combined.

Vida Blue has more shutouts than Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, and CC Sabathia, combined.

Not too many people have established HOF rooting committees for Blue, John, or Pappas. Blyleven is one of the top 30 or 40 pitchers, ever, but there are better ways to show it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Molitor's problem didn't last that long. Raines was the one who was diving headfirst into bases caue he was carrying vials of it in his back pocket.

That said, it didn't derail his career like Strawberry. It shouldn't be an issue.

Didn't last that long? How would you know? Were you Molitor's dealer or something? Seems strange that someone would vote for one guy over another (with similar careers, similar types of players, similar values - slight edge to Raines) based on a coke habit that lasted 18 months instead of three years.