Atkins: the ultimate litmus test

[SrMeowMeow]

So not only are you strongly suggesting that Atkins used PEDs, but also wonder aloud whether the O's front office was too stupid to even consider this. Ok.

I don't like the Atkins deal, but the simplest explanation is that they think he has a mechanical flaw in his swing that they think Crowley can fix. The end.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeellllllllllllllll...I mean, steroids is always a question, with any player, especially one whose production has fallen off steadily in recent years.

[BMoreJayMo]

I read through this whole thread and still don't understand what the big deal is. AM signed a guy for 1 year at $4.5 mil. So what? It's not like the O's can't

afford to swallow that contract if Snyder smokes it in AAA.

It's certainly not a litmus test to start judging the front office by.

Include with the folks supporting this position. At worst, Atkins goes away by mid-season with no lasting damage. At best, something close to his established ceiling would immensely benefit this club.

Didn't see one Atkins AB last year, but it sounds like he was injured, hurried back and then started pressing when the results didn't happen right away. Combine that chronology with the change in hitting coaches (with what seem two very different philosophies) and 2009 becomes less conclusive than lots of folks seem to think IMO.

Predicting Atkins will reach his ceiling is a bit too rich for me, but I can easily imagine a return to 2008 performance: .286/.328/.452. Add on a few more dingers (OPACY > Coors for HR) and that's a big improvement from last year, and much better than anything the '09 FA crop will provide. Reasonable risk, some upside and a one year commitment for only $4.5M - not a badly calculated wager all in all.

[hoosiers]

I read through this whole thread and still don't understand what the big deal is. AM signed a guy for 1 year at $4.5 mil. So what? It's not like the O's can't

afford to swallow that contract if Snyder smokes it in AAA.

It's certainly not a litmus test to start judging the front office by.

Agree 100%. It's a weak, stop gap signing with a minimal financial commitment for a FA Opening Day 1B.

AM has committed 2X Atkins pay to Millwood and 3X to MGonzalez.

[jdouble777]

Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel project between 14-16 HRs and .257-285 w/ 64-80 RBI. Split the difference and I think .270 - 72- 15 HRs is not terrible for 4.5M. His upside is HUGE and the risk is probably somewhere within those predictions.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1790&position=3B

Including positional adjustment, over 150 games Atkins projects as about a 1.3 WAR player for 2010. Assuming $4.4 million per marginal win as average market value, his $4.5 guarantee plus incentives seems to be in the right neighborhood.

It is worth reiterating that consistently paying “fair market value” isn’t really a “smart” thing to do. Teams on budgets need to get more for their money to win consistently, especially going up against New York and Boston in the American League East. On the other hand, it isn’t particularly “dumb,” either. It’s “average…” on average. It makes sense in this particular case. They certainly didn’t want to bring back Melvin Mora, who has entered the undead phase of his career. Baltimore’s prospects at third and first aren’t ready for the major leagues yet. Atkins isn’t a star, and will be lucky to be league average again. While Baltimore surely isn’t trying to contend, as has been noted elsewhere, sometimes a team simply needs to put a competent player on the field for fans. That’s okay as long the team doesn’t pay out the nose. Baltimore isn’t paying excessively for Atkins, and he won’t be blocking any prospects who might be ready for 2011. Way to bridge a gap, Mr. MacPhail.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/garrett-atkins-to-the-orioles

[BMoreJayMo]

Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel project between 14-16 HRs and .257-285 w/ 64-80 RBI. Split the difference and I think .270 - 72- 15 HRs is not terrible for 4.5M. His upside is HUGE and the risk is probably somewhere within those predictions.

Tough to 100% trust the straight numbers guys and the weighted mean, aging curve projections. IF Atkins' decreasing performance is the result of the place on his personal aging curve, he's going to bottom out this year and will prob be off the roster in time for Bell to get a few dozen pre-ASB plate appearances.

If, on the other hand, external factors were more the reason for Atkins' '09 performance why wouldn't '08 numbers provide a reasonable guideline?

[jdouble777]

Tough to 100% trust the straight numbers guys and the weighted mean, aging curve projections. IF Atkins' decreasing performance is the result of the place on his personal aging curve, he's going to bottom out this year and will prob be off the roster in time for Bell to get a few dozen pre-ASB plate appearances.

If, on the other hand, external factors were more the reason for Atkins' '09 performance why wouldn't '08 numbers provide a reasonable guideline?

Well said, I can certainly buy into your reasoning. A change of scenery and Crowley will probably help turn around whatever it is that needs to turn around. At least to some degree. As far as age, look at Chipper Jones, Atkins should still have a good bit in the tank, IMO.

[JayThomas]

there were only two with a good shot to be .830 OPS or better, IMO, Johnson or LaRoche.

... and both of those guys are left-handed. Let's remember that AM was also trying to bring in some RH bats. Atkins makes a little more sense in that regard.

[JayThomas]

I find it interesting how everyone seems to be avoiding the elephant in the room. I have absolutely no evidence and am not accusing Atkins of anything, but when you consider the landscape of baseball for the last 20 or so years and see a player with such a statistical drop off, certain things need to be considered. I hope the front office took this into consideration when making the Atkins deal and has had all their questions answered to their complete satisfaction. :scratchchinhmm:

No problem there - they'll put him next to Miggy in the dressing room and they can share vitamins.

[Capn Vivi]

When making my own projections for Orioles over the past few years, I remember reading over some "bottom 10%" projections and thought to myself: there's no way he'll perform that badly! Surely we can count on blah blah blah...

With Atkins, I really have no idea. It's entirely possibly he could be batting .220/.290/.340 in May. I personally think that's a scenario far more likely than finishing the year with 20+ homers and 70+ RBI.

Regardless, I'm really optimistic he can figure it out. Even if he just returns to his 2008 numbers, I'd consider it a win.

If anything, we can take solace in the fact that he had a godawful BABIP last year and it's inevitable rise could prevent him from embarrassing himself at the plate.

[Guest rochester]

Atkins 225-6-38 .675 OPS Book it!

[NewMarketSean]

Atkins will be off the team by July.

[wildcard]

I think Atkins projects poorly but the more I look at what has happen to him the more I see why MacPhail likes him. He lost the Manager and Hitting Coach last year that he trusted and the new Manager favored the up and coming younger, cheaper guy in Ian Stewart.

Atkins was seen as an "old 30" and you know how that can turn out.

I am keeping an open mind on Atkins.

[tvz1997]

Atkins:AM::Hobgood:Jordan

[Mackus]

Atkins:AM::Hobgood:Jordan

Not really similar, IMO.

Atkins or any of the 1B we could have signed was just a 1-year MLB stop gap. No matter if he made the best decision in the world or the worst decision, it would have no impact beyond the 2010 season.

The Hobgood selection is much further-reaching.

[tvz1997]

Not really similar, IMO.

Atkins or any of the 1B we could have signed was just a 1-year MLB stop gap. No matter if he made the best decision in the world or the worst decision, it would have no impact beyond the 2010 season.

The Hobgood selection is much further-reaching.

I just meant that the comparison is valid in terms of this discussion of a player selection as litmus test. It seems that both acquistions came to the organization wearing "Trust me, I know what I'm doing" buttons from AM/Jordan.

Obviously, the stakes are higher with the Hobgood selection, but in both cases the Os decided to spend less for players who they believed to have more upside than the majority of the baseball world.

And yes, we have our first Sledge Hammer reference of the day!