Atkins: the ultimate litmus test

[Frobby]

From January 26:

The more I think about it, we kind of know what to expect from Tejada, Millwood and Gonzalez. If any of them stray significantly from expectations, I don't think anyone will blame the front office.

Atkins is a whole different story. The guy's numbers have dropped significantly three years in a row, he hasn't been a good hitter away from Coors Field, and he was just downright awful last year. Yet, the O's office thinks it sees something there.

To me, this is a real litmus test of our organization. It's not like we paid him chump change, $4.5 mm guaranteed is real money. Just for example, it's $1.5 mm more than we'll be paying Wigginton, who also is right-handed and can play either corner IF spot, and who was much better in 2008 when we signed him than Atkins was in 2009. So, this is a move on which to judge the acumen of our front office. To me, even a .750-ish OPS wouldn't justify this move. The O's could get that from Wigginton without spending a dime on Atkins. This move only becomes worthwhile if Atkins puts up an .800-ish OPS and knocks in 90+ runs. If that happens, I'll be the first to congratulate the front office for seeing a guy who just needed some corrections. If he fails miserably, the front office will look stupid, and if he is just so-so, I still say the move made no sense.

Well, to the extent my opening post had any validity, our front office is looking pretty stupid, wouldn't you say?

[NewMarketSean]

We have the answer, and we've had the answer for a couple weeks: Garrett Atkins is the worst Oriole player in the history of the team.

[DrungoHazewood]

From January 26:

Well, to the extent my opening post had any validity, our front office is looking pretty stupid, wouldn't you say?

Yep. The world said "Atkins is done." MacPhail said "we can fix him, we have the technology." Atkins has a .544 OPS on May 20th, and has hit about four balls as far as the warning track.

[clapdiddy]

Yep. The world said "Atkins is done." MacPhail said "we can fix him, we have the technology." Atkins has a .544 OPS on May 20th, and has hit about four balls as far as the warning track.

Yes...and they were big-time mistake pitches. You can tell that he's cheating a bit because he's pulling a lot of pitches down the left-field line. He can't catch up to a good fastball.

[murrayfan420]

So not only are you strongly suggesting that Atkins used PEDs, but also wonder aloud whether the O's front office was too stupid to even consider this. Ok.

I don't like the Atkins deal, but the simplest explanation is that they think he has a mechanical flaw in his swing that they think Crowley can fix. The end.

I realize this was posted 4 months ago, but I still think it’s relevant today. After watching Atkins unable to generate any power what-so-ever I think the simplest explanation is that he had good numbers at Coors field while playing during the steroids era. You can draw your own conclusions, I certainly have.

[murrayfan420]

Yep. The world said "Atkins is done." MacPhail said "we can fix him, we have the technology." Atkins has a .544 OPS on May 20th, and has hit about four balls as far as the warning track.

"We can rebuild him. We have the technology. But I don't want to spend a lot of money."

[Lucky Jim]

Yep. Dumb, dumb, dumb signing.

On the other hand, Tejada has been a bargain (even w/ last night's misplay) and Millwood has been fantastic.

I think the one thing to note here is that, generally, we would have had Wigginton in line to replace him if he failed. The 4.5m/1yr gamble looks terrible now for a couple of reasons unrelated to the move itself.

But the move itself = failure.

[Slappy]

It's really a massive failure in the pro scouting department. Lee MacPhail should be ashamed on this one.

[Lucky Jim]

It's really a massive failure in the pro scouting department. Lee MacPhail should be ashamed on this one.

Something got dropped. They did some advanced analysis about park effects. Fine. But they clearly didn't have anyone with any real "swing" acumen take a look at him. Crowley didn't look until he was already signed.

Cart before horse.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yep. Dumb, dumb, dumb signing.

On the other hand, Tejada has been a bargain (even w/ last night's misplay) and Millwood has been fantastic.

I think the one thing to note here is that, generally, we would have had Wigginton in line to replace him if he failed. The 4.5m/1yr gamble looks terrible now for a couple of reasons unrelated to the move itself.

But the move itself = failure.

This wouldn't be nearly as big of a deal if there wasn't a casade of failures. Roberts' injury forced Wigginton to second, Snyder stopped hitting altogether, Hughes got called up and went like 5-for-50, Bell is slumping, Aubrey and Scott Moore started off ice cold...

There were several plausible backup plans if Atkins imploded, but almost all of them imploded, too. Luckily, it looks like Aubrey and Moore have found their strokes and may become decent options.

[Lucky Jim]

This wouldn't be nearly as big of a deal if there wasn't a casade of failures. Roberts' injury forced Wigginton to second, Snyder stopped hitting altogether, Hughes got called up and went like 5-for-50, Bell is slumping, Aubrey and Scott Moore started off ice cold...

There were several plausible backup plans if Atkins imploded, but almost all of them imploded, too. Luckily, it looks like Aubrey and Moore have found their strokes and may become decent options.

I was going to say the same thing, but I've grown so tired of being called an apologist that I bit my tongue.

Between 1B and DH we had:

Atkins

Wigginton

Scott

Reimold

Hughes

Aubrey

Snyder

Moore

That should have meant we had three MLB hitters capable of 1B-ish production and three AAAA hitters all as a back-up plan to Atkins.

And it's not just that: the offensive failures of Reimold, Scott and Jones early made the Atkins signing that much uglier. If those guys all put up .750-.850 OPS like we expect, we really don't care about the $4.5m wasted on Atkins. Even w/o Roberts.

H

[SrMeowMeow]

Atkins was clearly a worthless move at the time. Nobody who wasn't sporting a giant, powerful pair of rose-colored glasses should be surprised.

[El Gordo]

From January 26:

Well, to the extent my opening post had any validity, our front office is looking pretty stupid, wouldn't you say?

Yeah, fire AM and start over from scratch. Not only did they misjudge Atkins, they did Miggy and Millwood as well. No one expected them to be performing as well as they are.

[epic]

I realize this was posted 4 months ago, but I still think it’s relevant today. After watching Atkins unable to generate any power what-so-ever I think the simplest explanation is that he had good numbers at Coors field while playing during the steroids era. You can draw your own conclusions, I certainly have.

The steroid era was before 2006-2007, Atkins's only good/great years.

[enchiridion]

184 ABs since his last HR away from Coors