Updated PECOTA: Orioles will finish 15 games out

[DrungoHazewood]

I see that as the absolute, average, meh of our moving forward. If we finished with 79 wins, I would be happy, and sad, but still hopeful for 2011.

I picked the opposite record, 83-79. I think we have enough smart young players to perform above expectations. The parts are greater than the sum. Then the sum will be greater than the parts. If you get my drift...

There's probably something like a 30%-40% chance that a 79-win team wins at least 83 games. It's commonplace for a 80-win true talent team to actually win 70 or 90, happens pretty much every year.

Every projection system comes with an implied ± of at least five games (and that depends on various confidence levels). When PECOTA says that the Yanks, Sox, and Rays are all within 3-4 games of one another it's basically saying it has no idea who's actually going to win, just that there's a good chance they're all finishing in front of the O's and Jays.

[Satyr3206]

Why should they when Guthrie is below average, Millwood could very well fall that way as well, Bergenson is coming off a serious leg injury and now has another injury hurdle to overcome, and Matusz and Tillman are essentially unknown rookies yet to complete anything close to a full major league season?

Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season on at least in the neighborhood.

You're right, this group is definitely as bad as Eaton, Simon, etc. I don't know how my objective mind missed that.

[scOtt]

There's probably something like a 30%-40% chance that a 79-win team wins at least 83 games. It's commonplace for a 80-win true talent team to actually win 70 or 90, happens pretty much every year.

Every projection system comes with an implied ± of at least five games (and that depends on various confidence levels). When PECOTA says that the Yanks, Sox, and Rays are all within 3-4 games of one another it's basically saying it has no idea who's actually going to win, just that there's a good chance they're all finishing in front of the O's and Jays.

I can't agree with you any more, Jon. I just think, THINK, that there are an inordinate number of talents on this team. This team will beat the stats.

Again, that's completely my HO, but I think we have some very special pieces budding here.

[Avsfan]

Might want to take a look at this thread...

It's going to be pretty hard for them to compete with a sub $60 million dollar payroll in the future...

They might have one more year, but then they are done.

With the arms they have they aren't DONE...They've locked up Longoria L/T...have replacements for Bartlett, Crawford and probably Pena.

[ShaneDawg85]

BP has updated its projected standings based on its PECOTA projections:

BOS 94-68

NYY 92-70

TBR 91-71

BAL 79-83

TOR 71-91

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

A season like that would be pretty interesting for the O's all the way through August. Heck, even September would be interesting, with the O's playing a lot of games that month vs. the 3 teams vying for the playoffs.

By the way, I still feel these projections have a strong disconnect between OPS and runs scored.

Now that, in my view, would be a successful season, even if in the end it was still sub .500 season. If they managed to pull that off expectations for 2011 would be pretty high.

[Old#5fan]

Reps given.

But I'm sure you see what I'm asking. Did you have the same Doom and Gloom predictions as you do for EVERY one of our young guys as you profess on the OH?

I mean seriously! Did you believe they were the same POS team as you see heading into 2010? Every young guy failing, and veteran Nick too?

And if not... what exactly made you so pathetically jaded? I mean... I've seen some sad fans over the years but you take the cake!

Of course not, I was a 10 year old optimist in 1965, and when they signed Frank before the 66 season my optimism went through the roof! I actually was not surprised they went to the WS, just surprised they won it the way they did (four game sweep). :clap3:

That was my happiest year ever as an Oriole fan. I was on cloud nine as an 11 year old! Of course my high was dashed the next season when Frank got hurt!

[SilentJames]

With the arms they have they aren't DONE...They've locked up Longoria L/T...have replacements for Bartlett, Crawford and probably Pena.

They may not be done but it is hard to predict that the replacements for those players will be of equal quality. Look at Oakland, yes, moneyball had a great run, but they have not had a trio of Mulder, Hudson and Zito come through again.

They will be quality quality players, but there is no way to predict that they will be 100% equal replacements.

[ShaneDawg85]

Of course not, I was a 10 year old optimist in 1965, and when they signed Frank before the 66 season my optimism went through the roof! I actually was not surprised they went to the WS, just surprised they won it the way they did (four game sweep). :clap3:

That was my happiest year ever as an Oriole fan. I was on cloud nine as an 11 year old! Of course my high was dashed the next season when Frank got hurt!

As your name and lengthy fandom would imply, I hope that you of all people would know that Frank Robinson was not "signed," but was acquired from the Reds for Milt Pappas among others. This is a trade, not a signing. There's a reason why it's called one of the greatest trades in MLB history.

[KAZ97]

There's probably something like a 30%-40% chance that a 79-win team wins at least 83 games. It's commonplace for a 80-win true talent team to actually win 70 or 90, happens pretty much every year.

Every projection system comes with an implied ± of at least five games (and that depends on various confidence levels). When PECOTA says that the Yanks, Sox, and Rays are all within 3-4 games of one another it's basically saying it has no idea who's actually going to win, just that there's a good chance they're all finishing in front of the O's and Jays.

Nice guess/estimate. The number is 26.4%. Of course, it's the same chance the 79 win teams also wins 75 games or fewer instead of 83 or greater.

If one wants 90% confidence in their prediction for a 79-win team, they should wager on between 68 - 90 wins for the season.

[LookinUp]

Why should they when Guthrie is below average, Millwood could very well fall that way as well, Bergenson is coming off a serious leg injury and now has another injury hurdle to overcome, and Matusz and Tillman are essentially unknown rookies yet to complete anything close to a full major league season?

Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season on at least in the neighborhood.

You're getting beat up for this post, so I figured I'd point out the good and the bad.

The good: any optimism should be tempered by the wide potential performance variability in our starting 5. While there's reason to be optimistic, there's also reason to worry about both Millwood and Guthrie because of age/decline/competition.

Similarly, you're right to have concern about Bergesen - this is no way to kick off a season - and Matusz/Tillman still need to develop. Even Gonzalez is a big question mark until he establishes himself as a healthy closer.

The bad: even with the uncertainty in the starting 5, it's hyperbolic to say that "Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season."

Things can always go wrong. For the O's they almost always do. However, the talent level in our pitching staff from 1-16 (including AAA) is head and shoulders better this year than last year.

No objective prediction would place the O's anywhere near last year's team, except on the outer bounds.

Why you make such ridiculous bold pronouncements is beyond me.

[BaltimoreTerp]

You're getting beat up for this post, so I figured I'd point out the good and the bad.

The good: any optimism should be tempered by the wide potential performance variability in our starting 5. While there's reason to be optimistic, there's also reason to worry about both Millwood and Guthrie because of age/decline/competition.

Similarly, you're right to have concern about Bergesen - this is no way to kick off a season - and Matusz/Tillman still need to develop. Even Gonzalez is a big question mark until he establishes himself as a healthy closer.

The bad: even with the uncertainty in the starting 5, it's hyperbolic to say that "Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season."

Things can always go wrong. For the O's they almost always do. However, the talent level in our pitching staff from 1-16 (including AAA) is head and shoulders better this year than last year.

No objective prediction would place the O's anywhere near last year's team, except on the outer bounds.

Why you make such ridiculous bold pronouncements is beyond me.

Because he was right once. Only once. About football.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nice guess/estimate. The number is 26.4%. Of course, it's the same chance the 79 win teams also wins 75 games or fewer instead of 83 or greater.

If one wants 90% confidence in their prediction for a 79-win team, they should wager on between 68 - 90 wins for the season.

That's why we have you here!

[larrytt]

BP has updated its projected standings based on its PECOTA projections:

BOS 94-68

NYY 92-70

TBR 91-71

BAL 79-83

TOR 71-91

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

A season like that would be pretty interesting for the O's all the way through August. Heck, even September would be interesting, with the O's playing a lot of games that month vs. the 3 teams vying for the playoffs.

By the way, I still feel these projections have a strong disconnect between OPS and runs scored.

While the above is based on averages, what it doesn't take into account is that the O's have more players that could "break out" than any other team in the AL East. Based on averages, they correctly "expect" all our young players to have, at most, "good" seasons. But anyone paying attention knows that there's a decent chance that Wieters and Matusz, and perhaps Jones, Reimold, Markakis, Tillman, or Bergesen, could blow these "averages" away. What we're hoping for, and realistically so, is for a couple or more of these breakout seasons that would propel the O's to places no O has gone before in twelve years.

-Larrytt

P.S. For the love of Markakis (God), don't let the resident curmudgeon (that's the nicest way I can put it) hijack *another* thread. When I read this thread, over and over I see the "monkeylisted" note, and responses to it. Can't we ever have an Orioles party without this person drumming the Beat of Doom and dominating all conversations by repeatedly yelling, "The sky is falling!"?

[Old#5fan]

As your name and lengthy fandom would imply, I hope that you of all people would know that Frank Robinson was not "signed," but was acquired from the Reds for Milt Pappas among others. This is a trade, not a signing. There's a reason why it's called one of the greatest trades in MLB history.

Good catch. My bad, of course I recall the trade of Milt Pappas and another lesser known guy they had dealt for from the Mets (I believe) who never actually donned an Oriole uniform. I liked Milt Pappas and he was the ace of the Orioles staff at the time but it would be comparable to trading Mike Boddicker for Vlad.

[TGO]

Good catch. My bad, of course I recall the trade of Milt Pappas and another lesser known guy they had dealt for from the Mets (I believe) who never actually donned an Oriole uniform. I liked Milt Pappas and he was the ace of the Orioles staff at the time but it would be comparable to trading Mike Boddicker for Vlad.

That's a pretty odd comparison considering Bodicker and Guerrero were never in the league at the same time.