Updated PECOTA: Orioles will finish 15 games out

[Lucky Jim]

No way we come close to this kind of record. PECOTA can't account for the O's annual September/October swan dive. Two to three 7+ game losing streaks guaranteed. Just like death and taxes.

Wow. You've managed to post the same thing in, like, three different threads. Kudos.

[Lucky Jim]

"Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003 5.91 wins

2004 7.71 wins

2005 5.14 wins

2006 4.94 wins

2007 4.31 wins

"

"[PECOTA's] average miss on each team's win total [in 2008] was 8.5 games."

This is their 2009 forecast.

I'd like to note that the last line of that article is a riff on a Morrissey song. And that's fantastic.

[Moose Milligan]

"Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003 5.91 wins

2004 7.71 wins

2005 5.14 wins

2006 4.94 wins

2007 4.31 wins

"

"[PECOTA's] average miss on each team's win total [in 2008] was 8.5 games."

This is their 2009 forecast.

Missing high or low?

Cause that could mean PECOTA could miss and we could be a 71 win team or a 87 win team.

[JLowenstein]

I'd like to note that the last line of that article is a riff on a Morrissey song. And that's fantastic.

If that same article had been written after PECOTA's 2008 and 2009 flops the last line would read,

"Please please please let me, let me, let me, let me get what I want this time, Rick Morrisey."

[Stotle]

"Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003 5.91 wins

2004 7.71 wins

2005 5.14 wins

2006 4.94 wins

2007 4.31 wins

"

"[PECOTA's] average miss on each team's win total [in 2008] was 8.5 games."

This is their 2009 forecast.

I didn't realize how bad PECOTA was for team record in 2009...ouch.

[Orioles Magic]

Wow. You've managed to post the same thing in, like, three different threads. Kudos.

Well actually two but the threads were both related to the "O's finishing near .500" hoopla. Its my opinion and I decided to respond to both threads. So sue me.

Hey, I'd love for the O's to prove me wrong but I doubt that is going to happen. I prefer to live in reality. You can smell the spring air and get spring fever over .500 delusions if you want to. The fact of the matter is the O's are a nickle and dime operation in a big dollar division. In some ways they are moving in the right direction but still the O's are constantly swimming against the tide and the end result is they never end up any further along in the standings and win column regardless of what they do.

I know that I am being a downer but it is just the mood I am in today. I am weary of the feeling of entering the new season knowing that my team has absolutely no shot in Hades of contending.

Just needed to vent. I will give it a rest now.

[Orioles Magic]

Would you not agree, that the primary reasons for the annual nosedive to end the year has been a lack of depth, and a lack of talent compared to the division?

If there is more depth (and there is), and there is better talent existing (and there is), why would you assume the same abysmal results?

Cause as a fan I have seen it happen over and over and over. I have come to expect it. I am feeling beaten down right now. I will come out of the dumps eventually. I still support the O's regardless.

[TonySoprano]

"Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003 5.91 wins

2004 7.71 wins

2005 5.14 wins

2006 4.94 wins

2007 4.31 wins

"

"[PECOTA's] average miss on each team's win total [in 2008] was 8.5 games."

This is their 2009 forecast.

Thanks for this, rep given. I had heard they were way off for 2009

ETA: for the 2009 Orioles, they exaggerated O's wins by 12

[BaltimoreTerp]

Well actually two but the threads were both related to the "O's finishing near .500" hoopla. Its my opinion and I decided to respond to both threads. So sue me.

Hey, I'd love for the O's to prove me wrong but I doubt that is going to happen. I prefer to live in reality. You can smell the spring air and get spring fever over .500 delusions if you want to. The fact of the matter is the O's are a nickle and dime operation in a big dollar division. In some ways they are moving in the right direction but still the O's are constantly swimming against the tide and the end result is they never end up any further along in the standings and win column regardless of what they do.

I know that I am being a downer but it is just the mood I am in today. I am weary of the feeling of entering the new season knowing that my team has absolutely no shot in Hades of contending.

Just needed to vent. I will give it a rest now.

I would accept this entire post if you would remove the underlined section. First because it is wrong. Second, because it actually goes against what you say you are doing, which is venting.

If you want to live in the past and believe that things haven't changed, that's on you, and you have every right to feel that way even if not any reason. But calling it reality is like someone declaring a World Championship for this year and calling it reality.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Thanks for this, rep given. I had heard they were way off for 2009

ETA: for the 2009 Orioles, they exaggerated O's wins by 12

Well, the question then is whether they exaggerated or the Orioles underperformed.

[TonySoprano]

Well, the question then is whether they exaggerated or the Orioles underperformed.

I'd argue the former, unless someone wants to also argue that TB and KC each underperformed by 11 games, Cleveland by 21 games, while out west LA and Texas overperformed by 11 and 16 games respectively.

Have fun with the projections, particularly if they tell you what you want to hear. But remember to take them with a lot of

<img src=http://img4.realsimple.com/images/0901/salt-shaker_300.jpg></img>

[Sports Guy]

I think we will see NY, Bos and TB win 88 or more games.

I think the Orioles will be right around 500.

Toronto will be around 70 wins.

[George]

"Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003 5.91 wins

2004 7.71 wins

2005 5.14 wins

2006 4.94 wins

2007 4.31 wins

"

"[PECOTA's] average miss on each team's win total [in 2008] was 8.5 games."

This is their 2009 forecast.

A naive projection is just to adopt the same W-L record for each team as their prior year's W-L result..A interesting test for PECOTA projections would be to compare their projection with the naive choice. I doubt PECOTA does significantly better or worse than the naive method.

By the way, thanks for providing PECOTA's self-evaluation to three significant digits.

[Old#5fan]

Well actually two but the threads were both related to the "O's finishing near .500" hoopla. Its my opinion and I decided to respond to both threads. So sue me.

Hey, I'd love for the O's to prove me wrong but I doubt that is going to happen. I prefer to live in reality. You can smell the spring air and get spring fever over .500 delusions if you want to. The fact of the matter is the O's are a nickle and dime operation in a big dollar division. In some ways they are moving in the right direction but still the O's are constantly swimming against the tide and the end result is they never end up any further along in the standings and win column regardless of what they do.

I know that I am being a downer but it is just the mood I am in today. I am weary of the feeling of entering the new season knowing that my team has absolutely no shot in Hades of contending.

Just needed to vent. I will give it a rest now.

Not a downer just a realist.

[Frobby]

Not a downer just a realist.

If there's one thing I dislike, it's when someone thinks that they are a "realist" and anyone who has a more optimistic view than they have is being unrealistic.

We're all trying to be realists here. There is PLENTY of objective evidence that the Orioles will be close to a .500 team this year. It is perfectly possible to be a realist and believe that. There are several objective baseball analysts and reporters, who have no vested interest in the Orioles, who are saying so. There are plenty of statistical analyses that support the idea. Once you get there, it is perfectly possible to be a realist and believe that if the O'd get a few breaks, they could win 85 games.

I believe both those things. I also believe that if several things go wrong, the O's could win 75 games or fewer. So what does that make me?