2011 Draft

[allstar1579]

Way too early to call Brandon Snyder "a crapshoot that doesn't pan out"...

Have to agree with you there. Just because he isn't AGonz or Fielder doesn't mean the type of hitter he is wouldn't help a ML team.

Also have to say it's way too early to say that Josh Bell isn't a possible 3rd baseman of the future.

It's funny how people turn on prospects the moment they aren't putting up some outrageous stats. Last season half this board was clamoring to trade Jake A. that he was overrated. Now that he's doing well again those same people want him in the ML rotation.

[ShoelesJoe]

But I'm forced to admit, with the next 11 games against Boston and NY, 3-25 seems quite likely. Roberts, Pie are out for a while. Reimold and Tejada are banged up. Atkins is beyond atrocious. Wieters is a singles hitter. The bullpen is as bad as ever. AND I bet we trade Millwood/Guthrie to a contender at the trade deadline.

If we finish with the 2nd or 3rd worst record, I'm going to be pissed. We lose just enough games every year to miss out on the top tier talent and get stuck with crapshoots that don't pan out like Rowell and Snyder. For once, let's just stink enough to get ourselves a sure thing stud!

I don't know -- Matusz and Wieters look like top tier talent to me.

[DocJJ]

We lost enough games to get a top 5 pick those years. It's all the years where we finished outside the top 5 that have ruined our drafts= Snyder, Rowell, Townsend, Hale, etc. The only top 5 pick that didn't pan out was Loewen, and that was due to injury...

It's almost like NBA basketball. The top 5 in the draft seem destined to succeed, but once you get out of the top 5, luck and chance factor in a lot more...

[Big Mac]

Have to agree with you there. Just because he isn't AGonz or Fielder doesn't mean the type of hitter he is wouldn't help a ML team.

Also have to say it's way too early to say that Josh Bell isn't a possible 3rd baseman of the future.

It's funny how people turn on prospects the moment they aren't putting up some outrageous stats. Last season half this board was clamoring to trade Jake A. that he was overrated. Now that he's doing well again those same people want him in the ML rotation.

Exactly. To ignore what a prospect has done over the past 2-3 years in favor of this months at-bats is ridiculous, at best.

[Stotle]

We lost enough games to get a top 5 pick those years. It's all the years where we finished outside the top 5 that have ruined our drafts= Snyder, Rowell, Townsend, Hale, etc. The only top 5 pick that didn't pan out was Loewen, and that was due to injury...

It's almost like NBA basketball. The top 5 in the draft seem destined to succeed, but once you get out of the top 5, luck and chance factor in a lot more...

The NBA and MLB draft could not be more different. Those parallels you are drawing aren't even superficially accurate.

[oriolefan1035]

We lost enough games to get a top 5 pick those years. It's all the years where we finished outside the top 5 that have ruined our drafts= Snyder, Rowell, Townsend, Hale, etc. The only top 5 pick that didn't pan out was Loewen, and that was due to injury...

It's almost like NBA basketball. The top 5 in the draft seem destined to succeed, but once you get out of the top 5, luck and chance factor in a lot more...

I realize it's far too early to evaluate the pick yet, but does Hobgood seem like a sure thing to you? I for one am not convinced he'll become a piece of our future core.

[DocJJ]

Which is why many criticized that pick.

Last years' draft may not have had a sure-thing past the top 3.

[Stotle]

Which is why many criticized that pick.

Last years' draft may not have had a sure-thing past the top 3.

So who are your "sure" Top 3 from last year?

The idea that you can even quantify a "break point" for "sure things" in a baseball draft class is..........flawed.

[tennOsfan]

Baseball America recently rated one of our local boys as the top high schooler for the 2011 draft. Daniel Norris is a junior for Science Hill in Johnson City, a left-handed pitcher who can top out in the mid 90s. BA had him going as the fifth pick.

[DocJJ]

When I get a chance, I'll crunch the numbers and determine what percentage of top 5 draftees made a meaningful contribution to their sport in both the NBA and MLB, and what percentage of picks 6-30 did the same...

[mcgraw238]

I say we tank the rest of the season so we can pick up Anthony Rendon.

[Hutman]

I say we tank the rest of the season so we can pick up Anthony Rendon.

As much as I like Rendon, not sure I want to suffer through the worst recond in baseball to get him. I think we're destined for another top 5 pick, but here's hoping we turn it around and don't suffer that fate.

[mcgraw238]

As much as I like Rendon, not sure I want to suffer through the worst recond in baseball to get him. I think we're destined for another top 5 pick, but here's hoping we turn it around and don't suffer that fate.

Agreed but were off to a good start for worst record. My take is that Rendon profiles as the elite power bat that our system badly needs. He'd be ready to contribute about the time our nucleus is hopefully ready to make the push.

[LookinUp]

I predict we'll have the 5th pick in 2011.

[mcgraw238]

I predict we'll have the 5th pick in 2011.

That's a solid prediction. And we won't be getting the impact bat of that draft.