First base in 2012 and beyond

[SilentJames]

But I would argue the collective wealth of the Baltimore-DC-NOVA area is higher than that of VT, MA, NH, RI and ME. And the majority of Red Sox fans that actually attend games come from MA and NH, granted the richest of those states, but not in comparision to the Baltimore-DC-NOVA area.

This is true, but you are misinterpreting what that means. BWNOVA has is basically HALF the size of NE. So while BWNOVA is the richest CSA in the country based on median household income, there are far fewer households making those dollars.

Moreover, New England doesn't have another baseball team. They have basketball, hockey, football, baseball.

BWNOVA has two baseball teams, two football teams, a basketball team and a hockey team.

[ledzepp8]

You overrate our younger players. They have potential this is true, but we have no idea if they are going to reach it fully or not.

Roberts is declining, nobody should question that. Markakis however could still rebound, but until he does, he can't be looked at as that .875+ 20-25 HR guy but rather a 15-20 HR, .825 OPS guy. Still valuable, but not the premium player we thought he was.

Which is why we need a major offensive upgrade moving foward, so these players don't have to carry the load of the offense like they had to in seasons past. They basically have to reach their potential for us to make the playoffs, so we have to surround them with the talent to help get them there.

This is so silly. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Markakis being an 825 OPS guy. He wouldn't be the best player in the league but he would be above average. If we had 9 Nick Markakis', we would have the best offense in the league.

You honestly don't get it. Having an Albert Pujols type player would be great, but it's clearly not a must like you think it is.

[JTrea81]

This is true, but you are misinterpreting what that means. BWNOVA has is basically HALF the size of NE. So while BWNOVA is the richest CSA in the country based on median household income, there are far fewer households making those dollars.

Moreover, New England doesn't have another baseball team. They have basketball, hockey, football, baseball.

BWNOVA has two baseball teams, two football teams, a basketball team and a hockey team.

Well we've seen the Orioles can sell out the park still, and most of those fans that come for those Red Sox games are bandwagon fans from Virginia, correct? If that's the case and the Orioles suddenly become good and do the unthinkable and actually become better than the Red Sox, my guess is that a majority of those fans would start rooting for the Orioles and start coming to more Orioles games. Of course if the Nationals beat us to the punch of making the playoffs, they'll go there instead.

[tywright]

Back to the topic at hand, we won't be able to sign a 1B FA...we need to trade for 1B talent. The best way to do that is identify players that are blocked.

Yonder Alonso

Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison

Daric Barton/Chris Carter

Brandon Belt

Kila Ka'aihue

Anthony Rizzo/Lars Anderson

Mark Trumbo

I'd really try to go after Brandon Belt since he's kind of blocked in SF.

[JTrea81]

Back to the topic at hand, we won't be able to sign a 1B FA...we need to trade for 1B talent. The best way to do that is identify players that are blocked.

Yonder Alonso

Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison

Daric Barton/Chris Carter

Brandon Belt

Kila Ka'aihue

Anthony Rizzo/Lars Anderson

I'd really try to go after Brandon Belt since he's kind of blocked in SF.

The key is though we need established talent, not unproven talent. If all avenues for proven difference making talent are gone at 1B, then you need to upgrade significantly elsewhere, and as long as you do that, then you can acquire an unproven prospect for 1B.

The Orioles will need huge upgrades at 3B and LF though to allow 1B to fall to a rookie if they want to avoid having a potential of another offensive collapse.

[SilentJames]

Well we've seen the Orioles can sell out the park still, and most of those fans that come for those Red Sox games are bandwagon fans from Virginia, correct? If that's the case and the Orioles suddenly become good and do the unthinkable and actually become better than the Red Sox, my guess is that a majority of those fans would start rooting for the Orioles and start coming to more Orioles games. Of course if the Nationals beat us to the punch of making the playoffs, they'll go there instead.

Yes, you are indeed correct. But you aren't getting that the NE area has almost 100% MORE people in it than than the BWNOVA area. The income disparity is not that great to make up for the sheer numbers of people.

[Pedro Cerrano]

The amount of blind assumptions that the OP treats as set in stone fact is truly mind-boggling.

Prince Fielder is our only good 1B option for 2012 and beyond? Really? You really truly believe that?

What if the Yankees sign Pujols and trade Teixeira for .30 on the dollar? In fact, I'll state it the way you normally would. Ready?

Albert Pujols is an FA after 2011. He is going to sign with the Yankees because they can offer him the most money and will do whatever they can to get him in pinstripes. Mark Teixeira is too good a defensive 1B to simply DH and he hasn't earned his contract so the Yankees will definitely look to move him. All we have to do is wait for the Yankees to get desperate to move that contract and then trade for him for cheap. Chris Tillman will probably be enough as he couldn't even crack the calendar. Mark Teixiera loves it here so he would extend also and he would also have the choice of what month he wants to be in the calendar. Since his favorite month is September, he will choose that.

There. Problem solved.

[JTrea81]

The amount of blind assumptions that the OP treats as set in stone fact is truly mind-boggling.

Prince Fielder is our only good 1B option for 2012 and beyond? Really? You really truly believe that?

What if the Yankees sign Pujols and trade Teixeira for .30 on the dollar? In fact, I'll state it the way you normally would. Ready?

Albert Pujols is an FA after 2011. He is going to sign with the Yankees because they can offer him the most money and will do whatever they can to get him in pinstripes. Mark Teixeira is too good a defensive 1B to simply DH and he hasn't earned his contract so the Yankees will definitely look to move him. All we have to do is wait for the Yankees to get desperate to move that contract and then trade for him for cheap. Chris Tillman will probably be enough as he couldn't even crack the calendar. Mark Teixiera loves it here so he would extend also and he would also have the choice of what month he wants to be in the calendar. Since his favorite month is September, he will choose that.

There. Problem solved.

Actually you bring up an interesting point. The Yankees could sign Pujols and trade Teixeira. I wouldn't put that past them.

And it that were the case I would hope the Orioles would be interested.

I would think it would be far down on the probablity scale though, which is why at the moment it isn't an option. And I did have the caveat that Fielder would be the best option barring a major trade. Acquiring Teixeira would be a major trade.

[tywright]

The key is though we need established talent, not unproven talent. If all avenues for proven difference making talent are gone at 1B, then you need to upgrade significantly elsewhere, and as long as you do that, then you can acquire an unproven prospect for 1B.

The Orioles will need huge upgrades at 3B and LF though to allow 1B to fall to a rookie if they want to avoid having a potential of another offensive collapse.

The question was 2012 and beyond...so you need to make a move now for unproven talent to be able for them to flourish in 2012 and beyond. You can easily resign Wigginton and plug him at 1B or 3B for the time being. And then have Reynolds/Lee fill the void.

You can't build a winner in just one offseason by signing FAs because it just doesn't accomplish your goals like it used to. Especially when it's practically impossible to sign a premium FA with our situation. We'd be extremely lucky to sign Beltre or Dunn because they don't want to come here.

We need to identify talent that is blocked. There are plenty of teams out there that are loaded with talent and are inadvertently blocking their future talent by signing FAs. We might as well take advantage of that since we can't sign FAs.

[JTrea81]

Yes, you are indeed correct. But you aren't getting that the NE area has almost 100% MORE people in it than than the BWNOVA area. The income disparity is not that great to make up for the sheer numbers of people.

And I'm telling you the majority of the population that attends Red Sox games is based in MA and NH and it doesn't equal the population of the Baltimore-DC-NOVA area. You get some fans from ME, VT and RI, but not as many as you'd think. Greater Boston has 4.4 million people. Baltimore-Washington has 8.2 million people.

[JTrea81]

The question was 2012 and beyond...so you need to make a move now for unproven talent to be able for them to flourish in 2012 and beyond. You can easily resign Wigginton and plug him at 1B or 3B for the time being. And then have Reynolds/Lee fill the void.

Wigginton as any stopgap solution is just wrong. He had good production for a catcher or shortstop, but that's about it. No way do you bring him back if you are serious about winning being important.

You can't build a winner in just one offseason by signing FAs because it just doesn't accomplish your goals like it used to. Especially when it's practically impossible to sign a premium FA with our situation. We'd be extremely lucky to sign Beltre or Dunn because they don't want to come here.

I agree it won't happen in one offseason, but it has to happen by 2012 so we need to do as much as we can this offseason. As for FA not wanting to come here, as I've explained several times that can be overcome by money and aggressive recruitment for most players.

We need to identify talent that is blocked. There are plenty of teams out there that are loaded with talent and are inadvertently blocking their future talent by signing FAs. We might as well take advantage of that since we can't sign FAs.

We can sign FAs, but we need to have a much better approach to do so. And talent that is blocked is usually unproven, and as I've said we already have enough question marks without adding any more.

We either need to do what it takes to compete or blow the team up again. This trying to catch lightning a bottle method is not good enough for all the time we've invested into rebuilding this team and watching it lose for the past 12 seasons. We either commit to losing for several more years while we fully commit to the Tampa method, or we go all in like the Red Sox did back in 2000-2001.

[Crazysilver03]

How many playoff teams that had multiple appearances in consecutive years have had a different 1st baseman manning the position each time they went to the playoffs?

Every team that has a multiple year playoff run in recent memory has had stablity at the 1B position.

Each time the Orioles have been in the playoffs, they've had a 1st baseman that has manned the position for them for multiple years.

Boog Powell, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro.

Consistency at 1B has been a constant of winning Orioles teams.

You still haven't shown any evidence that this is true, after it has been blown to pieces by other posters.

[tntoriole]

You will always have LaRoche type guys available. Guys who can give you an 800-850 OPS.

We do not need to have a premium first baseman to contend in the AL East...Tampa proved that last year.

I don't know why you continue to act as if there is only one way to build a team. It is the single worst opinion that this site has ever seen. There are tons of ways for the Orioles to build a winning team in this division...and yes, adding a big name bat is one of those potential ways. But its only one of the ways.

I agree absolutely with this post. The easiest way for us to compete is to continue to upgrade and stockpile pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching and then more pitching...and we are close to being very, very good in that category as an organization. As many flaws as this team had last year and continues to have, this same team still went 34-23 over the last third of the season- I do not believe this to be a fluke or a mirage.

You repeat those numbers for the other two thirds of the season and you have the best record in baseball by a country mile....this was done primarily because our pitchers - our starters primarily though Koji helped a great deal- these young starters figured it out....if those starters do the same type of job in 2011 as they did in the last third of 2010, then we are likely to be competitive even with the team as it currently stands.

And that would be the case whether we have Ty Wigginton or Adrian Gonzalez playing first or Ty Wigginton or Adrian Beltre playing third...or Izturis or Hardy playing short....while it is certainly good to try to improve the team as much as we can this offseason, it still comes down to this, in my view...if our pitchers perform to their potential, then we win...if they don't, we won't.

[sandman0838]

Back to the topic at hand, we won't be able to sign a 1B FA...we need to trade for 1B talent. The best way to do that is identify players that are blocked.

Yonder Alonso

Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison

Daric Barton/Chris Carter

Brandon Belt

Kila Ka'aihue

Anthony Rizzo/Lars Anderson

Mark Trumbo

I'd really try to go after Brandon Belt since he's kind of blocked in SF.

I'll even add Jerry Sands to this list...He's blocked in LAD by Loney. I'd be ecstatic if any of those names are standing on 1B come opening day. Chris Carter is basically Ryan Howard with speed, I'm very high on this kid.

[CSB Jack]

The key is though we need established talent, not unproven talent. If all avenues for proven difference making talent are gone at 1B, then you need to upgrade significantly elsewhere, and as long as you do that, then you can acquire an unproven prospect for 1B.

The Orioles will need huge upgrades at 3B and LF though to allow 1B to fall to a rookie if they want to avoid having a potential of another offensive collapse.

Your response to my earlier question gave some reasonable options. I'd take Swisher, though I doubt the Yankees make him available. I'm higher on Butler than you are but without anything particurlarly solid to back it up other than perception and the fact that he derailed Bergesen for a year.

I'd say that they need upgrades at 3B, SS, and LF regardless of what they do at 1B if they want to contend. To me it's more important that they have talent period, regardless of whether it is established (veteran) or not, and regardless of position. The biggest advantage of veteran talent is a reduced uncertainty factor; the advantage of unproven talent is that it costs less and is under team control for longer. I don't want to see them try to go with rookies at all those positions, but I have no problem with younger options at some of them.

Long term, the team needs to improve its ability to find and develop talent across the board. That means doing a better job in Latin America, and in the US. The improvements that have been made in the past couple years are only scratching the surface of what needs to be done. That way we won't be having the discussion two years from now about what to do for the long term solution for some other position. The reality is that if the Orioles had a farm system that was consistently producing major league talent they could easily compete with the other teams in the AL East because even if they could not sustain a payroll on par with Boston or NYY they would be able to go higher than they have recently to either retain their homegrown talent or to supplement with trades and free agents.