O's wild card contender in 2011?

[terpspe]

But they should be able to stay within 6 or 7 games into late August if they don't get bit by an injury bug.

[crawjo]

This question is really asking whether the Orioles will be able to hang with both the Red Sox and Yankees for most of the season. The answer is no. I don't expect them to be as good as the Rays, who will have trouble contending. They might be as good as the Blue Jays, who will not contend.

[bluedog]

What factors does it depend on? In 1996, at the trade deadline, we were 53-52, 10 games out of first place. We were 4.5 games behind Seattle, 4 games behind Chicago and .5 games behind Oakland for the wild card. But we won the wild card, so we must have been contenders. And, we won with a 3 game cushion, so that would say that you can be 7 games out on July 31 and still be a wild card contender.

I guess a team's record isn't relevant to whether or not they are a contender.

[bluedog]

I think some people here have extremely strict definitions of contender.

Within 10 games should be considered a contender. And I think that's possible.

Agreed. For some people contender apparently means the same as winner. As in, you are only a contender for the wild card if you actually win the wild card.

[Sports Guy]

The O's have hope and faith. They have a chance at contending that doesn't involve a 17-5 season from Kurt Ainsworth or something.

No, they're not likely to have 90+ wins, but it's not impossible either. Probably 5-20%, depending on number of beers consumed.

I am not saying its not possible...Of course its possible..But A LOT has to go right for them to do it.

The question wasn't, do you think it is possible to contend for a WC. The question is, are the Orioles a WC contender. 2 different questions with 2 different answers.

[caljr]

I believe that there is a better chance that we don't win the wild card than that we do, but I don't think every single thing has to go right for us to accomplish a playoff birth. I think that if most things go really well for us, we will have a good chance at contending. Think about it, what if Wieters hit .330 with a .950 ops and 35 hrs; Matusz pitched to a 2.75 era and had 210 IP; Hardy hit 25 hrs and had a .850 ops; and Koji stayed healthy all year and converted all but a couple of saves. If all these things happened, we could afford a couple of minor disappointments and still have a chance at the wild card. Thing is - this is baseball - and the unpredictable happens from time to time. We have a chance, not a great one, but we do have a chance.

[Stotle]

I don't see why it's written in stone that 90+ W's are necessary for the WC. As I see it the O's, TOR, MFY's, and TAM are fairly close. No one team is going to dominate for 2nd place in the East. They will be within a few games of one another. That may not be more than 90 W's and the 2nd place teams in the other divisions may not be 90+ W teams either. The O's could finish with in 3-5 games of the WC and I would consider that contending. That would keep them in the race until the last week of the season.

I think if you take a look at how many wins it has taken to win the Wild Card it will answer some of your questions.

[Frobby]

I am not saying its not possible...Of course its possible..But A LOT has to go right for them to do it.

The question wasn't, do you think it is possible to contend for a WC. The question is, are the Orioles a WC contender. 2 different questions with 2 different answers.

So, the second question equates to, is it likely that the Orioles will contend for the wild card in 2011? I guess that will still get into the definition of what "contending" is, and when you are contending. 7 games out of the WC on July 31 is barely hanging on to contention, 7 games out on August 31 isn't contending at all, IMO.

So, let's start with, is it likely that the O's, with Vlad Guerrero, will be within 7 games of the wild card on July 31? I am going to say that it's reasonably likely. Is it likely they will be within 5 games of the wild card on August 31? I would say that is very unlikely.

[olehippi]

So about 50% of those voting think we can be a contender this year...... Seriously? WOW! Maybe if Boston relocates to Japan, all the Yankees suddenly grow 10 years older, Toronto refuses to leave Canada, and Tampa Bay sinks into the oil sludge in the Gulf of Mexico

Whoever laced the orange kool-aid did a masterful job!....

[Sports Guy]

So, the second question equates to, is it likely that the Orioles will contend for the wild card in 2011? I guess that will still get into the definition of what "contending" is, and when you are contending. 7 games out of the WC on July 31 is barely hanging on to contention, 7 games out on August 31 isn't contending at all, IMO.

So, let's start with, is it likely that the O's, with Vlad Guerrero, will be within 7 games of the wild card on July 31? I am going to say that it's reasonably likely. Is it likely they will be within 5 games of the wild card on August 31? I would say that is very unlikely.

How many teams are in front of the Orioles? How many of those teams just look better than the Orioles? How many of those teams have made moves?

I am sorry but for you to be a contender for the WC in the AL, you are probably going to need to be within 5 games or so heading into September and you need to be a borderline 90 win team.

Contending isn't finishing 8-10 games out with 6 teams in front of you. I wouldn't consider the BJs contenders over the last few years.

[Oriolidae85]

Voted yes for several reasons.

1) Buck Showalter has turned around every team he's coached (2 for 3 in reaching the playoffs). This has already started for the Orioles and continued throughout the off season. Buck has quality talent at every position and enough depth to overcome an average injury type season.

2) Two teams have made historic turnarounds to reach the WS in the last 6 years. The Tigers and Rays all improved with young pitching progressing and the Orioles are in the very same situation coming into this season (see #4 below).

3) The Al East is not as tough this season compared to 2010. The Rays are not a 90+ win team. The Jays are probably not going to win more than 80 games after trading away/losing players without replacing that lost production. The Yankees will struggle to win more than 90 games this season, IMO. One could easily argue that only the Sox and Orioles have improved.

4) The Orioles run differential projected improvement for 2011 (compared to the Tigers and Rays WS turnaround season):

Runs (scored) Ra (runs against) table showing their improvement (and the Orioles 2009/2010 seasons):

Tigers 	Runs 	Ra 	Difference2006 	822 	675 	1472005 	723 	787 	-64Delta 	99 	-112 	211Rays 	Runs 	Ra 	Difference2008 	774 	671 	1032007 	782 	944 	-162Delta 	-8 	-273 	265O's 	Runs 	Ra 	Difference2010 	613 	785 	-172 2009 	741 	876 	-135 Delta	-128	-91 	-37 

The main ingredients for the Rays turnaround season related to the progression in their young SP's and having a solid bullpen. IMO, the Orioles 2011 SP could have a similarly productive year as the 2008 Rays.

I posted some analysis comparing the Ray's 2007/2008 rotations in their turnaround seasons to the Orioles 2010/2011 rotations (before Duke):

...

The Tigers turnaround also included the progression of their young SP's, but they had a more balanced improvement as a team. Their offense improved with the same roster with several players having key/career seasons. They did not have a true power hitter, but the Tigers did have solid/avg. power throughout their lineup. The 2011 Orioles could produce at a similar level as the Tigers 2007 offense.

So given the trends of the Rays and Tigers breakout seasons, and looking at the Orioles current roster, I've come up with a Reasonable projection and a Competitive projection for their run differential improvements:

Reasonable Projection			O's 	R 	Ra 	Difference2011 	782 	754 	282010 	613 	785 	-172 Delta 	169 	-31 	200 Competing Projection			O's 	R 	Ra 	Difference2011 	822 	730 	92 2010 	613 	785 	-172 Delta 	209 	-55 	264 

[El Gordo]

I think if you take a look at how many wins it has taken to win the Wild Card it will answer some of your questions.

How many it has taken before, is not how many it will this year. The level of parity between the MFY's, TOR, TAM, is greater this season, IMO. They are all more likely to beat up on one another than in the past and finish within a few games of one another.

[irishterp10]

I voted yes because there's a possibility, and when the season gets rolling things can happen in our favor. However, if I had to make a prediction, I would say NO. We aren't there yet unfortunately. It also depends on what you mean by wild card contender, we could be "in the race" albeit, 8 GB or so even in September.

[Stotle]

How many it has taken before, is not how many it will this year. The level of parity between the MFY's, TOR, TAM, is greater this season, IMO. They are all more likely to beat up on one another than in the past and finish within a few games of one another.

Would be a fun and convenient narrative, but I doubt there is much validity. WC has never been a sub-90 proposition, and there have been larger swings in power throughout the league. It seems "rainbows and unicorns" to think BAL will suddenly be an 85-89 win team the first year that the WC goes to a 85-89 win team. Further, if the league truly saw that much parity, BAL is unlikey to make as much headway in W/L columns because wins across the board will be more difficult for everyone.

[TakebackOPACY]

2010 O's finished 29 games out of the WC

2009 O's finished 31 games out of the WC

2008 O's finished 26.5 games out of the WC

2007 O's finished 25 games out of the WC

2006 O's finished 25 games out of the WC

2005 O's finished 21 games out of the WC

2004 O's finished 20 games out of the WC

2003 O's finished 24 games out of the WC

2002 O's finished 32.5 games out of the WC

2001 O's finished 38.5 games out of the WC (32.5 games out of 1st in AL East)

2000 O's finished 17 games out of the WC (13.5 games out of 1st in AL East)

1999 O's finished 16 games out of the WC

1998 O's finished 13 games out of the WC

I'll be rooting for them of course. But I prefer to wait and see, and enjoy the ride if they surprise me. I voted no.