O's wild card contender in 2011?

[SilentJames]

To be a wild card contender, you have to be one of the top two teams in your division. I don't think the 2011 Orioles are going to contend for second place.

Not necessarily. I think the West won't compete for WC, two from the central, three from the East.

MIN, DET, NYY, BOS, TB.

Pick the central winner and then two more. I think the Orioles are closer, but they are still on the periphery.

[bluedog]

As some have said, I don't think Vlad is what's going to make or break us as a wild-card contender.

And as a yes/no poll, it's really tough because the obvious answer is "Maybe". But I'll say yes, because I think we are built to compete with most of the teams in this league, and with a couple surprises we can jump to the higher tier of teams.

Let me clarify - I did not intend to suggest in this poll that Vlad would be the difference between the O's competing for a WC spot and not competing for one. I simply wanted everyone to answer the poll using a common frame of reference - namely, if the O's squad ends up with Vlad at DH and Scott in LF.

I could have just as easily said "as currently constructed will the O's contend for a Wild Card in 2011?" and we may have gotten almost exactly the same results. I just chose to ask the question assuming Vlad comes aboard.

[bluedog]

To be a wild card contender, you have to be one of the top two teams in your division. I don't think the 2011 Orioles are going to contend for second place.

So if a team is in third place in their division on September 1st and only 2 games behind the division leader and one game out in the Wild Card standings, they would not be a wild card contender because they aren't one of the top two teams in their division?

Do we all need to agree on a definition for what "contender" means?

[Sports Guy]

So if a team is in third place in their division on September 1st and only 2 games behind the division leader and one game out in the Wild Card standings, they would not be a wild card contender because they aren't one of the top two teams in their division?

Do we all need to agree on a definition for what "contender" means?

Do you think the Orioles are going to be a borderline 90 win team?

[Ven6]

They're contending for the wildcard with or without Vlad :thumbsup1:

I prayed for it to happen so my bum father would take me out of this foster home I've been staying at...

Keep the faith, oriole. On both counts.

[Frobby]

Do you think the Orioles are going to be a borderline 90 win team?

In my earlier poll, shortly after the Lee signing, the majority of posters felt the O's had a less than 10% chance of winning 90+ games. I'd doubt that the subsequent signings of Gregg and Duchscherer have moved the needle very far. But if we go on to sign Vlad, it would be interesting to conduct that poll again.

http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106018&highlight=odds

[bluedog]

Do you think the Orioles are going to be a borderline 90 win team?

No, but I do think they are an 85+ win team and that this is good enough to be in contention for a Wild Card spot. It doesn't mean I think they'll win the WC, just contend for it.

I think the Red Sox will dominate the AL East this year. I think the Yanks are overrated and the Jays and Rays are worse than they were last year - so I don't expect two teams in the East to run away and hide from the rest of the division, I expect it to be more like 2006.

Having said that, I recognize that historically you must win around 95 games to grab the wild card. For the O's to realistically be in contention, I think they need to be within 5 or 6 games of the wild card leader at the trade deadline.

I expect the O's pitchers to continue the success they had under Buck at the end of last season and for the offense to be significantly improved over last year. So, barring a trade deadline deal for a Halladay, Lee or Sabathia, pencil me in for 84 wins and our first meaningful August in over a decade when its all said and done.

[Sports Guy]

No, but I do think they are an 85+ win team and that this is good enough to be in contention for a Wild Card spot. It doesn't mean I think they'll win the WC, just contend for it.

I think the Red Sox will dominate the AL East this year. I think the Yanks are overrated and the Jays and Rays are worse than they were last year - so I don't expect two teams in the East to run away and hide from the rest of the division, I expect it to be more like 2006.

Having said that, I recognize that historically you must win around 95 games to grab the wild card. For the O's to realistically be in contention, I think they need to be within 5 or 6 games of the wild card leader at the trade deadline.

I expect the O's pitchers to continue the success they had under Buck at the end of last season and for the offense to be significantly improved over last year. So, barring a trade deadline deal for a Halladay, Lee or Sabathia, pencil me in for 84 wins and our first meaningful August in over a decade when its all said and done.

Totally disagree. We have been that close before. It depends on several other factors.

85 wins isn't a WC contender. Just because your name appears on the ESPN graphic of WC standings doesn't mean you are a contender.

[bluedog]

Totally disagree. We have been that close before. It depends on several other factors.

85 wins isn't a WC contender. Just because your name appears on the ESPN graphic of WC standings doesn't mean you are a contender.

I would have been shocked if you didn't disagree. We disagree on the definition of contender.

[DrungoHazewood]

85 wins isn't a WC contender. Just because your name appears on the ESPN graphic of WC standings doesn't mean you are a contender.

The O's have hope and faith. They have a chance at contending that doesn't involve a 17-5 season from Kurt Ainsworth or something.

No, they're not likely to have 90+ wins, but it's not impossible either. Probably 5-20%, depending on number of beers consumed.

[orayole]

I think some people here have extremely strict definitions of contender.

Within 10 games should be considered a contender. And I think that's possible.

[JTrea81]

I'd say we won't be a contender because we'd need 95 wins likely to get the WC.

I think right now if we get Vlad we'll finish in the 85-90 bracket at best.

[LookitsPuck]

I'd say we won't be a contender because we'd need 95 wins likely to get the WC.

I think right now if we get Vlad we'll finish in the 85-90 bracket at best.

Wait, what?

How many wins do you think Vlad is worth again?

[Frobby]

Totally disagree. We have been that close before. It depends on several other factors.

What factors does it depend on? In 1996, at the trade deadline, we were 53-52, 10 games out of first place. We were 4.5 games behind Seattle, 4 games behind Chicago and .5 games behind Oakland for the wild card. But we won the wild card, so we must have been contenders. And, we won with a 3 game cushion, so that would say that you can be 7 games out on July 31 and still be a wild card contender.

[El Gordo]

I don't see why it's written in stone that 90+ W's are necessary for the WC. As I see it the O's, TOR, MFY's, and TAM are fairly close. No one team is going to dominate for 2nd place in the East. They will be within a few games of one another. That may not be more than 90 W's and the 2nd place teams in the other divisions may not be 90+ W teams either. The O's could finish with in 3-5 games of the WC and I would consider that contending. That would keep them in the race until the last week of the season.