Holding the 4th pick, who are we looking at drafting?

[Frobby]

It sounds to me that players 3-10 (or so) is almost a "draw a name out of the hat" type thing.

Cole and Rendon are 1-2 and after that, its a crap shoot.

MacPhail said at Fanfest that while last year had a clear top 3, this year it is more like a top 7.

[allstar1579]

MacPhail said at Fanfest that while last year had a clear top 3, this year it is more like a top 7.

Yeah, this is a better assessment. I can't say that Gray, and Jungmann are THAT far behind Cole right now, Cole has just had a good start or two to start the season, plenty of guys will catch up, and the HS guys will move up a bit once their season gets rolling this week.

[Stotle]

For my money, I think Cole and Rendon are a clear Tier 1, on par with your Strasburg/Harper/Price picks. Lots of good choices after those two, but I don't think anyone else comes particularly close to their profile -- safety + ceiling.

[Frobby]

For my money, I think Cole and Rendon are a clear Tier 1, on par with your Strasburg/Harper/Price picks. Lots of good choices after those two, but I don't think anyone else comes particularly close to their profile -- safety + ceiling.

But there is a tier below that that is seen as being on the Machado level, that goes several players deep, true? (I know you personally weren't as high on him as some others, but the "consensus" perception last year seemed to be that there was a drop between Machado and whoever would be picked 4th).

[Stotle]

But there is a tier below that that is seen as being on the Machado level, that goes several players deep, true? (I know you personally weren't as high on him as some others, but the "consensus" perception last year seemed to be that there was a drop between Machado and whoever would be picked 4th).

Absolutely.

1. I considered the drop-off last year to be after Harper/Taillon

2. The Tier below Cole/Rendon is a very good tier, consisting of maybe 7-9 players I'd expect to be top 5 type talents in a more typical draft class.

[allstar1579]

George Springer seemed like a boom or bust type of player before this year. He's off to a horrible start this year. Contact still seems to be a huge problem. Most of the pitchers are off to very good starts. I wonder if Jungmann's arm makes it through the season. 26 2/3 IP over 3 starts. Cole has been great. I think the O's wind up with Jungmann or Matt Barnes of Connecticut.

Yeah I'm no fan of Springer's really, that contact rate kills me, and if he can't hit straight stuff now what is he going to do against advanced breaking stuff in AA?

I still think Cole is going to go #1 overall, pairing him with Taillon in PIT could be NASTY. Jungmann has looked pretty good, not as good as Cole obviously, but still been looking pretty good.

[RVAbird]

Here are some splits for the college guys that have been discussed after a few times through the rotation:

Gerrit Cole

Sonny Gray

Taylor Jungmann

Matt Purke

Matt Barnes

Jed Bradley

And some hitters:

Anthony Rendon

Jackey Bradley, Jr.

George Springer

Kolten Wong

Andrew Susac

[clapdiddy]

Here are some splits for the college guys that have been discussed after a few times through the rotation:

Gerrit Cole

Sonny Gray

Taylor Jungmann

Matt Purke

Matt Barnes

Jed Bradley

And some hitters:

Anthony Rendon

Jackey Bradley, Jr.

George Springer

Kolten Wong

Andrew Susac

Looking at this list makes me feel we're going to get a very good player at the 4 spot.

[RVAbird]

Looking at this list makes me feel we're going to get a very good player at the 4 spot.

Lots of good ones to choose from, and those are just the big name college prospects.

It seems all but certain that Rendon and Cole will be off the board by the time we pick. Any of the remaining pitchers would be defensible top 5 picks, though I think I'm leaning toward Gray at the moment. He has really won me over despite his size. I can't help but think of Roy Oswalt, but he'll need to clean up his command a bit.

After Rendon, the college hitting thins out significantly. JBJ and Susac have really upped their stock. I think JBJ is a solid top 10 pick right now and Susac might move into that discussion if he keeps hitting. Either might be a bit of a stretch at 1:4 but certainly not out of the question.

Springer and Wong have effectively played themselves out of the discussion for me at this point.

[Stotle]

Lots of good ones to choose from, and those are just the big name college prospects.

It seems all but certain that Rendon and Cole will be off the board by the time we pick. Any of the remaining pitchers would be defensible top 5 picks, though I think I'm leaning toward Gray at the moment. He has really won me over despite his size. I can't help but think of Roy Oswalt, but he'll need to clean up his command a bit.

After Rendon, the college hitting thins out significantly. JBJ and Susac have really upped their stock. I think JBJ is a solid top 10 pick right now and Susac might move into that discussion if he keeps hitting. Either might be a bit of a stretch at 1:4 but certainly not out of the question.

Springer and Wong have effectively played themselves out of the discussion for me at this point.

Re: Wong, I can't imagine spending a top five pick on a 2B, let alone a top five pick in a class like this. Wong has caught, so there's potential to move him behind the plate. I'm not the least bit concerned with his stat line -- he's still comfortably a first rounder for me at this point. He absolutely destroyed very good competition this summer on the Cape, and he swung really well when I saw him in SoCal last weekend -- was robbed of a double or would have had a 2-3, 2 2B day w/HBP. More importantly, he was squaring the ball as well as ever and his swing still looks compact and explosive.

[Stotle]

Here are some splits for the college guys that have been discussed after a few times through the rotation:

Gerrit Cole

Sonny Gray

Taylor Jungmann

Matt Purke

Matt Barnes

Jed Bradley

And some hitters:

Anthony Rendon

Jackey Bradley, Jr.

George Springer

Kolten Wong

Andrew Susac

I see the stats, but where are the splits?

[RVAbird]

Re: Wong, I can't imagine spending a top five pick on a 2B, let alone a top five pick in a class like this. Wong has caught, so there's potential to move him behind the plate. I'm not the least bit concerned with his stat line -- he's still comfortably a first rounder for me at this point. He absolutely destroyed very good competition this summer on the Cape, and he swung really well when I saw him in SoCal last weekend -- was robbed of a double or would have had a 2-3, 2 2B day w/HBP. More importantly, he was squaring the ball as well as ever and his swing still looks compact and explosive.

Hmm...

I'll give it some time to see if his line adjusts to his swing. But, he was never a big favorite of mine. I thought of him as a solid mid-first guy, but he hasn't done anything IMO to warrant entering the top 10 discussion. So, although I'm not saying he won't be a solid MLer, I still stand by not considering him an option for Baltimore.

How much has he caught in college?

[Stotle]

Hmm...

I'll give it some time to see if his line adjusts to his swing. But, he was never a big favorite of mine. I thought of him as a solid mid-first guy, but he hasn't done anything IMO to warrant entering the top 10 discussion. So, although I'm not saying he won't be a solid MLer, I still stand by not considering him an option for Baltimore.

How much has he caught in college?

I mean, you are talking about, what, 50 ABs? This is a kid that has hit the prior two years and killed the ball with wood as a rising soph. with Team USA and as a rising junior on the Cape (winning the batting title and slugging .500). I know you follow the draft stuff pretty closely, so I'm surprised to see you expressing concerns about his stats over 50 ABs, including two series against Oregon and Texas -- two of the better staffs in the college game this year.

Saying you are not considering him an option for BAL is fine, but were you considering him entering the season? If so, what has changed? Surely 50 ABs isn't swing your opinion with an avalanche of evidence that he can hit already in the books.

[Stotle]

In case anyone hasn't seen him, here is Wong from a weekend ago:

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[RVAbird]

I mean, you are talking about, what, 50 ABs? This is a kid that has hit the prior two years and killed the ball with wood as a rising soph. with Team USA and as a rising junior on the Cape (winning the batting title and slugging .500). I know you follow the draft stuff pretty closely, so I'm surprised to see you expressing concerns about his stats over 50 ABs, including two series against Oregon and Texas -- two of the better staffs in the college game this year.

Saying you are not considering him an option for BAL is fine, but were you considering him entering the season? If so, what has changed? Surely 50 ABs isn't swing your opinion with an avalanche of evidence that he can hit already in the books.

No, no. I intended my post to express that I wasn't putting much weight into the stats, even if it might have seemed the opposite.

Let me restate: Pre-season, based on video and what I've heard, I considered Wong a guy in the 10-20 range. I haven't seen him play this year (nor have I ever!), but nothing in his performance thus far has provided compelling evidence for me to bump him into the top 10 range.

In the absence of any new, compelling reason to upgrade him, I feel more confident about my assessment that he's a reach at 1:4. That's all.

I don't put much weight into 50 ABs at any level, let alone in the amateur ranks.