I think this winter (maybe sooner), it will be time to pick a direction

[Greg Pappas]

2012

SP... *Brittton

SP... Guthrie

SP... *Matusz

SP... Arrieta

SP... Tillman/Bergesen???

RP... Berken???

RP... ???

RP... ???

RP... ???

RP... Johnson

RP... ???

CL... ???

1B... ???

2B... #Roberts/Adams???

SS... Hardy???

3B... Reynolds

CA... #Wieters

LF... *Scott/Reimold/*Pie???

CF... Jones

RF... *Markakis

DH... *Scott/Reimold???

This team, as currently constructed, is talented enough to challenge .500... but not enough to contend. In contemplation of the 2012 team, the above shows that there are a great deal of unknowns.

We cannot truly rebuild, as we simply don't have the commodities to trade that will garner the returns needed to help facilitate an influx of strong talent. The only player that could bring a nice return is Guthrie. I imagine Koji or Gregg could net something decent. But dealing Guts would mean that we'd have to try to find another pitcher to fill his role. We missed our chance to deal Roberts, and Scott as well. Felix Pie is not getting a regular opportunity, lessening his value, and DLee may have little value at all come the trade season. Vlad may net us something, but probably not anything more than a B-, C+ type prospect. It's doubtful we offer either arbitration after the season, netting us zilch in return. So, who do we deal in this rebuild? Again, not much.

So, should we sign Prince Fielder this off-season? Perhaps re-sign JJ Hardy for another year, until the arrival of Manny Machado? As Frobby says in the OP, we need a direction. SG has had the following seared into the consciousness of the OH for years... "You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish."-Billy Beane

With a serious lack of interest in the international market, we have fallen short in our system, in compared to the rest of the division. Where are we to make up the difference? What can we do when we're handcuffed before we even begin?

[Fan4Life]

Its his idea of a signature I think...Not allowed and I know Paul has said something to him about it...Its pretty annoying.

As for the OP, it has been obvious for a while the Orioles were not heading into the proper direction in terms of this team and this division.

Again, the MAJOR LEAGUE foundation/core is/was in place...But we simply do not have the owner/GM combo needed to win in this division.

I have to agree here. If there was an opportunity to go all in it was a couple years back when we failed to land a 1b. They weren't ready/able/willing to do it then, they certainly aren't going to do it now. So there is really only one choice, go young.

[Slappy]

You don't have to keep rebuilding. You have to keep developing players or finding talent through trades, internationally, etc. And that is something the Orioles are horrible doing.

I definitely agree with this. And would have no problems trading Guthrie, Scott, Vlad, or Lee for some young talent, preferably close to the majors.

I'd also argue the Orioles have not been "horrible" at doing this. Jones, Hardy, Reynolds, Scott, and Pie in the majors were all acquired via trade, usually for guys we'd developed in-house. Josh Bell too. International has certainly been an issue.

The O's biggest problem in the MacPhail era has been the inability to add impact veterans.

[Slappy]

SG has had the following seared into the consciousness of the OH for years... "You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish."-Billy Beane

That's an ironic quote because Billy Beane has been treading water in Oakland for the past 5 seasons now.

[Greg Pappas]

That's an ironic quote because Billy Beane has been treading water in Oakland for the past 5 seasons now.

I hear you, though to be fair, he's severely limited in what he has to work with. Regardless of his troubles, the quote makes sense.

[clapdiddy]

Ultimately, I think Frobby's point is that this team was not built to handle any failure from players we believed were going to be the core. This organization doesn't have the depth to handle failure at the major league level.

[Sports Guy]

What level of payroll could the O's reasonably afford if attendance climbed back to the 3 million mark?

Everyone thinks this is about payroll...Its not...It never has been about payroll.

This is about organizational structure. Its about amateur spending, foreign and domestic. Its about just simple good decision making.

This division can be won with a low payroll, Tampa has proven that.

[Sports Guy]

Well...the regression of Nick and the absence of Roberts really highlights this. If both of these guys were performing at career average levels I don't think this would bother us as much. But their quick aging really reshapes our approach to the contracts we have to be willing to give out.

It's not really true to say our core is in place if Roberts barely plays this year and next and Markakis continues to slump. That really only leaves Jones/Wieters to sustain us in our core, and while they may be in the roster it's certainly not getting the job done.

Well, the fact that anyone was viewing BRob as part of the foundation and core, at his age, is a problem to me to begin with.

Nick's issues obviously hurt though.

[Sports Guy]

The rebuild has not been a slam dunk, but it's not a failure either. The real problems have been:

- Roberts injury problems

- Nick's incredible regression

- Failure of "plug-in" free agents to perform

The young core has been fine. Britton, Matusz are what we thought they were. Arrieta is a rotation piece. Jones is breaking out this year, and I think you can kind of argue that for Wieters as well. Reimold is playing well. I think we have a competitive left side of the infield for the first time in 6-7 years.

I firmly believe if you put a top talent at 1B (like Fielder or, miraculously, Puljos), and find at least a competent 2B, you can put a team that can compete for the playoffs in 2012-13. ESPECIALLY considering the possibility of wild card expansion.

I just don't believe doing an all-out rebuild is a very successful strategy. I can only think of one team it works consistently for, and that's the Marlins. A better path is putting the best product you can on the Major League field and adding/subtracting where needed.

These 3 things are not even in the viscinity of the true issues.

[Sports Guy]

That's an ironic quote because Billy Beane has been treading water in Oakland for the past 5 seasons now.

He has done some things that haven't worked out(Michael Taylor jumps out) but he has been rebuilding. His team hasn't done much but he isn't really in between anything either.

[Sports Guy]

As of today, our 4 best trade pieces are JJ, Koji, Guthrie and Hardy.

Of those 4, IMO, Guthrie must be dealt if the right deal is there of course.

Now, I know what people are going to say...How can we trade Jj and Koji, our bullpen will stink without them...And trust me, I know that is what AM will say...But who the hell cares?

Relievers have fetched a lot at the deadline over the years and this year should be no different and these 2 guys could fetch a lot because of service time, salary and performance.

I still hope to extend Hardy but that should be figured out by this deadline or he should be dealt as well.

[TiredofLosing20]

I think the direction is pretty clear (whether its the right one or not I don't know). They didn't bring Buck in last year, with the team in the dumpster like it was without thinking shorter term. I can not see any scenario where Buck signs on to a scenario where the plan was to supplement the core this year and if the team still stunk blow it up. They attempted to spend some money this offseason, they failed so they signed plans C & D. My guess is that they will again attempt to spend this offseason (whatever that means).

Gun to my head I would say that AM/PA/BS think the following:

Adam Jones is becoming the superstar they thought he was

Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL East and maybe in a Mauer-less AL

The young pitching staff is coming along

Guthrie is cheap for another year

JJ Hardy is the stop gap they need at short

Nick will rebound

Reynolds will continue to get better

They can get at least one more good year out of BRob

We have holes to fill at 1B and LF

With the right purchases, this team can contend next year

I just see nothing that tells me they have any thoughts of re-rebuilding.

[Slappy]

These 3 things are not even in the viscinity of the true issues.

As far as our won-loss record in the past two seasons are concerned, they are the largest issues. The failure of Atkins, Millwood, Gonzalez, Lee, and to some extent Vlad, combined with poor performance from Nick and Roberts barely being available are big contributors to W-L in 2010 and 2011.

I know you'll say it's in the way we draft and develop players, but I don't buy it. We've brought as many quality major leaguers up from the minors in the past 3 years as any team in the division. And as far as trades go, MacPhail has fleeced his adversary in almost every trade he's made. A lot of the trades you've advocated just are not possible in the real world.

[Sports Guy]

As far as our won-loss record in the past two seasons are concerned, they are the largest issues. The failure of Atkins, Millwood, Gonzalez, Lee, and to some extent Vlad, combined with poor performance from Nick and Roberts barely being available are big contributors to W-L in 2010 and 2011

First of all, Nick was fine last year...Not great but certainly nothing that drug us down. BRob's injuries have hurt but maybe just 3 wins or so. The FAs haven't been great but we aren't talking about a contending team anyway, so its not changing a whole lot.

I know you'll say it's in the way we draft and develop players, but I don't buy it. We've brought as many quality major leaguers up from the minors in the past 3 years as any team in the division. And as far as trades go, MacPhail has fleeced his adversary in almost every trade he's made. A lot of the trades you've advocated just are not possible in the real world

Well that's fine...you are just wrong.

This team loses because they don't have nearly enough talent.

[Slappy]

I know you'll say it's in the way we draft and develop players, but I don't buy it. We've brought as many quality major leaguers up from the minors in the past 3 years as any team in the division. And as far as trades go, MacPhail has fleeced his adversary in almost every trade he's made. A lot of the trades you've advocated just are not possible in the real world.

Well that's fine...you are just wrong.

This team loses because they don't have nearly enough talent.

Address the bolded, then. I don't know you can argue that the Orioles from 2009 to now have produced young players at a level below their AL East competitors, or lagged behind in bringing in players via the trade.

And you, yourself, advocated for the Bell/Sherrill trade, the signing of D.Lee, trading for J.J. Hardy, getting Mark Reynolds, etc. I mean, you beat the drum for those things.

So when the club does what you want and still doesn't win, what does that say?