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Markakis Max Return

mrbraswel3

By mrbraswel3
in Orioles Talk

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HokieOs Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

HokieOs

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We spent $7.5 million on Derrek Lee for that same value and got Vlad for $8 million.

We are talking about spending $14 million per season for getting sub 3.0 fWAR production.

Is his fan favoritism really worth that extra $5-6 million per?

And Lee/Vlad have to do with Markakis................................... how?

Lee and Vlad were overpriced signings and probably mistakes. Neither of them are going to be Orioles in 2012.

Markakis is on a down year. Reyes is having a very good year... but both Reyes and Fielder have multiple sub 3 WAR seasons as well. In fact, until this year, Reyes had had sub 3 WAR seasons the last two years.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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And Lee/Vlad have to do with Markakis................................... how?

Lee and Vlad were overpriced signings and probably mistakes. Neither of them are going to be Orioles in 2012.

Markakis is on a down year. Reyes is having a very good year... but both Reyes and Fielder have multiple sub 3 WAR seasons as well. In fact, until this year, Reyes had had sub 3 WAR seasons the last two years.

This will be Markakis' third sub 3 fWAR season in a row. Reyes and Fielder have been up and down while Markakis has been on a steady decline. His ISO and SLG have dropped each of the past 3 seasons.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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Okay, yes, JTrea is awful, but seriously, who honestly thinks Markakis has positive trade value right now?

If he does it's not much, but that is solely b/c of the contract. Eat some of it, and you can get a nice haul.

Either way, it's beyond stupid to discuss trading one of your franchise players when he's playing as poorly as he's ever played. It's even dumber to assume that this is what he is going forward.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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When you're ready to have a reasonable conversation without reverting to hyperbole it will be the first time.

When you are ready to look Markakis' stats instead of relying on emotion, let me know if you have the same perception.

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SrMeowMeow Hangout Grand Counsel

SrMeowMeow

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If he does it's not much, but that is solely b/c of the contract. Eat some of it, and you can get a nice haul.

Either way, it's beyond stupid to discuss trading one of your franchise players when he's playing as poorly as he's ever played. It's even dumber to assume that this is what he is going forward.

Solely because of the contract...that he does, actually, in reality, have. So any impact it has on his trade value is real.

What would you feel confident predicting for Markakis going forward? .290/.350/.430 with -5 defense and a plus arm? Maybe .290/.355/.450 with +0 defense if you're feeling fanboyish? Barring some major turnaround, I don't see a great player in there anymore.

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RandyM Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

RandyM

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Jtrea has very valid points, but they always get lost in the end when he goes off on his agenda.

Bottomline is Kakes has very little value right NOW no matter what his contract was. The contract takes it to another level.

Facts:

- he has been terrible this year

- he has been declining each of the last 3 years.

- he has been an extreme disappointment for someone that should be hitting his peak.

JTrea is right, look at Rios's value when he got placed on waviers and that is what Kake's value is. Should we release him, no. Should we try to trade him, no. His value couldnt get any worse, that would be stupid.

I wonder how much Kake's issues are go into Jones's contract discussions.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Jtrea has very valid points, but they always get lost in the end when he goes off on his agenda.

Bottomline is Kakes has very little value right NOW no matter what his contract was. The contract takes it to another level.

Facts:

- he has been terrible this year

- he has been declining each of the last 3 years.

- he has been an extreme disappointment for someone that should be hitting his peak.

JTrea is right, look at Rios's value when he got placed on waviers and that is what Kake's value is. Should we release him, no. Should we try to trade him, no. His value couldnt get any worse, that would be stupid.

I wonder how much Kake's issues are go into Jones's contract discussions.

No he hasn't. His OPS+ in 2009 was 108 in 2010 it was 119. He had less homers and RBI's in 2010 but we already know that RBI's are a useless stat.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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No he hasn't. His OPS+ in 2009 was 108 in 2010 it was 119. He had less homers and RBI's in 2010 but we already know that RBI's are a useless stat.

Here's an excerpt of an article on Markakis' decline:

Take a look at Markakis’ Isolated Power figures and walk rates since 2008:

2008: .185 ISO, 14.2 BB%

2009: .160 ISO, 7.9 BB%

2010: .138 ISO, 10.3 BB%

2011: .078 ISO, 6.4 BB%

Run-scoring levels are down across baseball over the past two years, but that fact doesn’t come close to explaining Markakis’ vanishing secondary skills. Here are his ISO and walk numbers as a percentage of the league average (100 means average, below 100 is below-average and above 100 is above-average):

2008: 119% ISO, 163% BB

2009: 103% ISO, 89% BB

2010: 95% ISO, 121% BB

2011: 57% ISO, 76% BB

Markakis’ walk rate rebounded somewhat last season, but it’s back to well below the league average in 2011. And his pop? Well, Markakis’ ISO is in the same neighborhood as power luminaries like Miguel Tejada, Elvis Andrus and James Loney.

The article mentions that Markakis last hit an opposite field HR in 2008.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Here's an excerpt of an article on Markakis' decline:

The article mentions that Markakis last hit an opposite field HR in 2008.

I am not denying that his numbers are down significantly this season.

His 2010 season was better offensively then his 2009 season, therefor his offensive production has not declined three seasons in a row.

Its a very simple statement of fact.

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HokieOs Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

HokieOs

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I am not denying that his numbers are down significantly this season.

His 2010 season was better offensively then his 2009 season, therefor his offensive production has not declined three seasons in a row.

Its a very simple statement of fact.

Yep... people forget that despite his poor start in 2010, he actually recovered to have a decent season.

There was one post in here talking about .800 OPS ceilings for Markakis.... but besides this year, his first MLB season was his only SUB .800 OPS season (and that was .799).

He's never going to be the star of the team... but he's a very good piece to have. He's a bit overpriced... but I think it's fair to say that he should recover to be a .800+ OPS guy again.

And I know this has been said all over the place on here, but I will guarantee that his OPS is over .700 come August. Just look at what he has done in his last 10 games.... he's getting it figured it out. I'm beginning to be less worried about him.

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

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I'll refer to what I said in a previous thread:

I understand Markakis is a fan favorite, but is it really worth paying him that money for the performance he's giving? It's a valid question to ask, and if he's still sub .750 OPS by August, you've got to consider all that money you owe him.

If another team is willing to eat it all, that is not a bad thing and then you just have Roberts' contract to worry about with a ton of payroll room going into the offseason.

I'll ask you again, if Nick Markakis was a free agent after the season would you give him the same amount of money that you advocate giving to Prince Fielder? Nick has been, according to Baseball Reference, worth more WAR, coming into this season, than Prince Fielder.

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