Markakis Max Return

[SrMeowMeow]

Wow, as if this thread didn't look bad enough, you throw this out there?

I mean, I give up. I'm trying to have a reasonable discussion about a player who's been declining in meaningful ways for a few seasons, is supposed to be a franchise cornerstone, and is signed to a correspondingly handsome contract. I guess that's not possible.

Do you disagree with any of my argument, or does it just hurt your feelings when I say mean things about Markakis?

[Sports Guy]

OK, it was just the 3rd time I'd asked you in this thread.

I think you're relying way too much on this year's stats. Some of his numbers this year are poor, and some of it is bad luck. His BB rate is poor 6.8%, career 9.6%. Pretty much everything else suggests he's had some bad luck this year. His IFFB is ridiculously high at 17.4%, career 7.6%. His LD% is up, at 21.7%. His BABIP is 50 points lower than his career average of .323. If you think that this is what Nick is going forward then just say that. Otherwise, stop looking at this year as anything but an outlier.

Also, I'm not saying that his OPS will be .805+ this year, but going forward. That is what the discussion was about. Nick going forward, since this was a discussion as to whether or not to waive him.

As far as his ZIPS projection, I see 2 numbers. ZIPS ® is .767 and ZIPS (U) is .715. I don't know the difference between the two. Does anybody?

If you want to create a strawman argument about some people not being as impressed by Pence as Markakis then go right ahead, but people who would offer for Pence what you suggested aren't the kind of folks I would take seriously.

Which is exactly why it makes zero sense to say...

there's no reason to think Markakis will be a particularly good player going forward

Also, his UZR is improved this year.

Nick needs to get back to taking more pitching and walking more...He will have better at bats and better results if/when he gets back to that.

[Sports Guy]

I mean, I give up. I'm trying to have a reasonable discussion about a player who's been declining in meaningful ways for a few seasons, is supposed to be a franchise cornerstone, and is signed to a correspondingly handsome contract. I guess that's not possible.

Do you disagree with any of my argument, or does it just hurt your feelings when I say mean things about Markakis?

I think part of your argument is very good...I think part of it is awful.

To say there are no signs of him being a good player again is one of the poorest statement I have ever read on this site and that came from someone who I thought had some understanding of stats.

[SrMeowMeow]

I think part of your argument is very good...I think part of it is awful.

To say there are no signs of him being a good player again is one of the poorest statement I have ever read on this site and that came from someone who I thought had some understanding of stats.

Do I think Markakis is going to be "what he is now" going forward? As in, his 2011 numbers? As in, .650 OPS? God, no. Have I given that impression? I just think his updated ZIPS projection (~750 OPS) is pretty close to where I think his true talent is. And where that is is bad.

EDIT: And there are always "signs of someone being a good player", if you want them to be there. But we're a lot harsher on other players than we are on Orioles, and I think a lot more objective. Everyone on here focuses on Markakis's pros and ignores his cons. I say again, if he was on another team, we would laugh at the idea of moving anything of value for him.

[Sports Guy]

Do I think Markakis is going to be "what he is now" going forward? As in, his 2011 numbers? As in, .650 OPS? God, no. Have I given that impression? I just think his updated ZIPS projection (~750 OPS) is pretty close to where I think his true talent is. And where that is is bad.

EDIT: And there are always "signs of someone being a good player", if you want them to be there. But we're a lot harsher on other players than we are on Orioles, and I think a lot more objective. Everyone on here focuses on Markakis's pros and ignores his cons. I say again, if he was on another team, we would laugh at the idea of moving anything of value for him.

I don't see anyone ignoring the cons...I see you trying to create that some are and if some are being blind, so be it. There are some on here who still think we can contend this year and that we shouldn't give up that hope...Does that mean that the whole board is thinking that way? No, of course not so let's not be stupid and act like that's the case.

Nick has a good LD%...Good contact rate...Low BABIP..All of those are positive signs that he has a lot of room to get better this year.

Now, does that mean he would be much more than a 730-750 OPS right now? Probably not...But it also means that he could still end the year with an 800-825 OPS if that were the case.

So, there are obviously signs. Those signs don't mean he doesn't have other issues, issues that many of us have beaten to death on here.

And a few bad months also does not mean that he has no value at all.

[waroriole]

Do I think Markakis is going to be "what he is now" going forward? As in, his 2011 numbers? As in, .650 OPS? God, no. Have I given that impression? I just think his updated ZIPS projection (~750 OPS) is pretty close to where I think his true talent is. And where that is is bad.

EDIT: And there are always "signs of someone being a good player", if you want them to be there. But we're a lot harsher on other players than we are on Orioles, and I think a lot more objective. Everyone on here focuses on Markakis's pros and ignores his cons. I say again, if he was on another team, we would laugh at the idea of moving anything of value for him.

This is what just baffles me. In 5 previous seasons, Nick has had an OPS ranging from .799 to .897. Yet, you think that his true talent is a .750 OPS, based just on his numbers from this year. It's even more baffling when it's been shown that he has hit into some bad luck, and is struggling to right himself.

[Sports Guy]

This is what just baffles me. In 5 previous seasons, Nick has had an OPS ranging from .799 to .897. Yet, you think that his true talent is a .750 OPS, based just on his numbers from this year. It's even more baffling when it's been shown that he has hit into some bad luck, and is struggling to right himself.

Excellent point.

[TiredofLosing20]

Considering the AL OPS average is .718. If he were to be a .750 guy that actually isnt too bad.

Just to compare.. In 2008 AL average OPS was .756

[waroriole]

Excellent point.

Thanks for the rep man. You gave me a bird. Woohoo.

[DrungoHazewood]

Considering the AL OPS average is .718. If he were to be a .750 guy that actually isnt too bad.

Just to compare.. In 2008 AL average OPS was .756

Truth #1: Nick is clearly struggling, especially when it comes to driving the ball for any kind of extra base hit.

Truth #2: His "decline" over the last several years isn't really a linear decline when compared to league averages.

[El Gordo]

This is what just baffles me. In 5 previous seasons, Nick has had an OPS ranging from .799 to .897. Yet, you think that his true talent is a .750 OPS, based just on his numbers from this year. It's even more baffling when it's been shown that he has hit into some bad luck, and is struggling to right himself.

Garrett Atkins put up some good numbers early in his career and then declined precipitously over 3 years. Nick 's decline has not been that drastic by any means, but it is hard to ignore the decline, and to think he can be an .897 OPS guy again is very optimistic indeed. Perhaps better than .750 but I think we've seen the best from him.

[SrMeowMeow]

This is what just baffles me. In 5 previous seasons, Nick has had an OPS ranging from .799 to .897. Yet, you think that his true talent is a .750 OPS, based just on his numbers from this year. It's even more baffling when it's been shown that he has hit into some bad luck, and is struggling to right himself.

Uh...ZIPS isn't based on his numbers from just this year...it's based on a lot of things...among them the fact that his peripherals have tanked. As SG said, even normalizing for BABIP, which ZIPS does, he'd probably have a 750 OPS this season. Why? Because his walk rate and his power are at all-time lows.

You can argue with ZIPS methodology if you want, but you seem to not understand what it does in the first place.

[waroriole]

Uh...ZIPS isn't based on his numbers from just this year...it's based on a lot of things...among them the fact that his peripherals have tanked. As SG said, even normalizing for BABIP, which ZIPS does, he'd probably have a 750 OPS this season. Why? Because his walk rate and his power are at all-time lows.

You can argue with ZIPS methodology if you want, but you seem to not understand what it does in the first place.

I'm not sure why this keeps flying over your head, but I'll repeat it. I'm not talking about what his OPS for this year will be. We were discussing whether it would be prudent to waive him and hope someone takes his salary. So, the discussion involved what he is going forward.

He has 5 seasons in the past that says he will be an ~.800~ OPS hitter. You said that .750 is his true talent, but have yet to give any explanation as to why you think that other than telling me what his ZIPS projection for this year is.

[El Gordo]

I'm not sure why this keeps flying over your head, but I'll repeat it. I'm not talking about what his OPS for this year will be. We were discussing whether it would be prudent to waive him and hope someone takes his salary. So, the discussion involved what he is going forward.

He has 5 seasons in the past that says he will be an ~.800~ OPS hitter. You said that .750 is his true talent, but have yet to give any explanation as to why you think that other than telling me what his ZIPS projection for this year is.

You keep saying this, but ignoring the progression.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm not sure why this keeps flying over your head, but I'll repeat it. I'm not talking about what his OPS for this year will be. We were discussing whether it would be prudent to waive him and hope someone takes his salary. So, the discussion involved what he is going forward.

He has 5 seasons in the past that says he will be an ~.800~ OPS hitter. You said that .750 is his true talent, but have yet to give any explanation as to why you think that other than telling me what his ZIPS projection for this year is.

His ZIPS for this year is based on his past seasons. It's an attempt to predict his true talent. It's one of the more reliable and successful ones. It takes a lot of inputs. It's better at predicting true talent than just looking at career OPS, in part because it gives more but not total weight to more recent seasons. And, by the way, I put him at a 780 OPS or thereabouts earlier in the thread, not 750. And I said if you're feeling optimistic, you can make a case for 790-800. So what exactly are we arguing about? 750-800 OPS with -5 defense is just not a great player. It's about what he was in 2009-2010: a 2.5 WAR, slightly above-average player. And that would be rebounding from a very poor start to 2010 - not just rebounding from poor luck on balls in play, but from poor peripherals as well.