Markakis Max Return

[waroriole]

Solely because of the contract...that he does, actually, in reality, have. So any impact it has on his trade value is real.

What would you feel confident predicting for Markakis going forward? .290/.350/.430 with -5 defense and a plus arm? Maybe .290/.355/.450 with +0 defense if you're feeling fanboyish? Barring some major turnaround, I don't see a great player in there anymore.

So, an OPS that is 11 points less than his career average, and 1 point less than his 2010 OPS is fanboyish? Whatever you say man. I guess he can only be as good as he is at the present time for the rest of his career. Anything better is just lollipop guild land.

[tilgaham]

How often do players have a decline into what is supposed to be their prime? Can anyone think of a similar case?

[ledzepp8]

The point is as it stands Markakis will be overpaid for his production and we might have a chance to get out from that contract. Toronto was able to do it with Rios and it helped them considerably.

Right now Markakis is not a difference making player and hasn't been since 2008 and he's going to be paid like one.

Do you just completely lack the ability to be honest in your arguments? Why do you twist and distort things?

When has Prince Fielder been a "difference making player"? Coming into this season, he's averaged less than 2.5 WAR per season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Right now Markakis is not a difference making player and hasn't been since 2008 and he's going to be paid like one.

2010, Nick Markakis 2.8 WAR, Prince Fielder 2.7 WAR. When two months is all that's standing between an argument and silliness, it's probably not a great argument.

[SammyBirdland]

We're currently 10 games out of first place. Once we get to around 15 games out, I'll expect us to see guys get really good. They're awesome when the pressure is off (see the second half of last season). Unfortunately they need to also play well when the pressure is on if they want to get anywhere.

[ledzepp8]

2010, Nick Markakis 2.8 WAR, Prince Fielder 2.7 WAR. When two months is all that's standing between an argument and silliness, it's probably not a great argument.

Yeah but it's always best to ignore actual facts when furthering ones agenda.

[DrungoHazewood]

How often do players have a decline into what is supposed to be their prime? Can anyone think of a similar case?

Constantly. It's total fallacy that players come into the league, improve until they're 27, then decline until they're done. Players peak at any age from 17 to 38, sometimes multiple times. They have setbacks, they surge forward almost without explanation, they collapse without warning. It's only when you sum all players do you get a nice, even peak around age 27 with falloffs on each side.

Trea's fav, Prince Fielder, saw his OPS fall off 140 points after both his age 23 and 25 seasons. At 25 Brooksie had an .828 OPS and finished 9th in the MVP voting, the next year he had a .670. At 28 Don Mattingly had a 133 OPS+, at 29 he had a 81. Remember Bobby Higginson? He had a run of seven years with an OPS+ of at least 109, with a high of 145, except right in the middle at age 28 he had an 88. At 28 Cal had his lowest OPS up to that point by almost 50 points. At 29 Rondell White had a .900 OPS, and he followed it up with a .666. Shall I continue? There are hundreds of these.

[DrungoHazewood]

We're currently 10 games out of first place. Once we get to around 15 games out, I'll expect us to see guys get really good. They're awesome when the pressure is off (see the second half of last season). Unfortunately they need to also play well when the pressure is on if they want to get anywhere.

How come 95% of all Orioles were no good the 2nd halves of every year from 1998-2009? What about that year where the pressure was off and they finished 4-32?

[brotherlo38]

2010, Nick Markakis 2.8 WAR, Prince Fielder 2.7 WAR. When two months is all that's standing between an argument and silliness, it's probably not a great argument.

Game, set and match.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you just completely lack the ability to be honest in your arguments? Why do you twist and distort things?

When has Prince Fielder been a "difference making player"? Coming into this season, he's averaged less than 2.5 WAR per season.

Let's not stretch the truth to benefit our case. Per 600 PAs Fielder has been worth almost three wins.

[ledzepp8]

Let's not stretch the truth to benefit our case. Per 600 PAs Fielder has been worth almost three wins.

Haha...I wasn't trying to stretch the truth. Maybe I fudged something but according to BRef, coming into the season he had been worth 14.7 WAR over 6 seasons, or 2.45 WAR per year.

But I guess to be fair, I should also take away his partial first season and you're right it would be almost 3 wins per year.

Of course Nick Markakis (3.54 per year), coming into this season, has been worth more than Fielder, which JTrea won't even acknowledge.

[JTrea81]

2010, Nick Markakis 2.8 WAR, Prince Fielder 2.7 WAR. When two months is all that's standing between an argument and silliness, it's probably not a great argument.

If you want to use rWAR that's fine but at least indicate it as such.

Better yet let's do a full comparison:

Prince Fielder (rWAR)

2006: -0.5

2007: 3.8

2008: 2.1

2009: 6.4

2010: 2.7

2011: 3.3

Nick Markakis (rWAR):

2006: 1.7

2007: 3.3

2008: 5.5

2009: 2.7

2010: 2.8

2011: -0.1

So Fielder is on pace for his second 6.0+ rWAR season while Markakis has never had one and looks to finish below 3.0 rWAR for the third year in a row.

Fielder has never had three consecutive sub 3.0 rWAR seasons.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you want to use rWAR that's fine but at least indicate it as such.

Better yet let's do a full comparison:

Prince Fielder (rWAR)

2006: -0.5

2007: 3.8

2008: 2.1

2009: 6.4

2010: 2.7

2011: 3.3

Nick Markakis (rWAR):

2006: 1.7

2007: 3.3

2008: 5.5

2009: 2.7

2010: 2.8

2011: -0.1

So Fielder is on pace for his second 6.0+ rWAR season while Markakis has never had one and looks to finish below 3.0 rWAR for the third year in a row.

Fielder has never had three consecutive sub 3.0 rWAR seasons.

I'm not going to argue that Markakis is as valuable as Fielder right now. But it seems pretty ridiculous to say that a guy who was only as valuable as Markakis one year ago is the key to contention for years to come, while Markakis is a candidate for the waiver wire.

Why don't we wait a full season before declaring Markakis' career over and Fielder an annual 6-win player?

[JTrea81]

I'm not going to argue that Markakis is as valuable as Fielder right now. But it seems pretty ridiculous to say that a guy who was only as valuable as Markakis one year ago is the key to contention for years to come, while Markakis is a candidate for the waiver wire.

Why don't we wait a full season before declaring Markakis' career over and Fielder an annual 6-win player?

We've waited two seasons and this season just confirms that Markakis is not a premium player. I'm not saying Fielder is an annual 6.0 rWAR player as even Rafael Palmerio was not an annual 6.0 rWAR player. However he has a 6.0 rWAR season and more left in him while Markakis has likely peaked.

For the performance he's giving on a consistent basis over the past two seasons and this one, he is not worth the contract he's signed to.

The Blue Jays had the same thing happen to them with Rios when he signed his deal and they are happy to have him gone.

If we are lucky enough for somebody to take all of Markakis' contract, we will feel the same IMO.

[ledzepp8]

We've waited two seasons and this season just confirms that Markakis is not a premium player. I'm not saying Fielder is an annual 6.0 rWAR player as even Rafael Palmerio was not an annual 6.0 rWAR player. However he has a 6.0 rWAR season and more left in him while Markakis has likely peaked.

Do you not see that you're proving our point? You want to pay someone 200 million dollars, who has been worth less WAR (coming to into this season) than Nick Markakis, a guy who "is not a premium player".