Markakis Max Return

[waroriole]

Oh please. Don't lump me in with JTrea. And this thread honestly had nothing to do with Fielder when he started it.

Markakis has been really bad. If he was on another team we wouldn't look at him twice.

Then maybe you would like to explain how it's "fanboyish" to assume that Markakis will hit at an .805 OPS going forward when his career OPS is .816 and last year's OPS was .806.

[Spoonless]

I imagine if Markakis played for another team, he'd be marked as a target for a reclamation project by many people on this forum, due to the fact that the cost in players of acquiring him would be low since we would have to eat the contract.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I imagine if Markakis played for another team, he'd be marked as a target for a reclamation project by many people on this forum, due to the fact that the cost in players of acquiring him would be low since we would have to eat the contract.

Exhibit A: The BJ Upton thread on the main page.

[Sports Guy]

I imagine if Markakis played for another team, he'd be marked as a target for a reclamation project by many people on this forum, due to the fact that the cost in players of acquiring him would be low since we would have to eat the contract.

Obviously this is true.

Would you guys turn away from a chance to acquire Hanley Ramirez right now?

As for the Rios comp...Few minor details I am sure that have been left out(just skimmed through the thread)...Rios was owed over SIXTY MILLION when this deal went down. Nick is owed 44 million or so after this year. That is a lot of difference in salary. Not to mention, you have Rios on your roster for 2 more seasons.

Also, weren't the Jays going through some financial issues at the time? They needed to get rid of payroll.

As most teams do, they put him through waivers and just decided to let the Sox eat all of his contract, as opposed to trying to work out a deal and paying some of it.

There is zero doubt that the 2 situations are different and I bet Nick has more value than what most think...Not saying he has A LOT of value but I think people would be surprised by what we could get for him, especially if the Orioles were willing to pay some of his contract.

[brotherlo38]

Obviously this is true.

Would you guys turn away from a chance to acquire Hanley Ramirez right now?

As for the Rios comp...Few minor details I am sure that have been left out(just skimmed through the thread)...Rios was owed over SIXTY MILLION when this deal went down. Nick is owed 44 million or so after this year. That is a lot of difference in salary. Not to mention, you have Rios on your roster for 2 more seasons.

Also, weren't the Jays going through some financial issues at the time? They needed to get rid of payroll.

As most teams do, they put him through waivers and just decided to let the Sox eat all of his contract, as opposed to trying to work out a deal and paying some of it.

There is zero doubt that the 2 situations are different and I bet Nick has more value than what most think...Not saying he has A LOT of value but I think people would be surprised by what we could get for him, especially if the Orioles were willing to pay some of his contract.

I don't know about financial issues like the Mets/Dodgers are having but they were tight on payroll between Rios' contract and Wells' contact.

[SrMeowMeow]

Obviously this is true.

Would you guys turn away from a chance to acquire Hanley Ramirez right now?

As for the Rios comp...Few minor details I am sure that have been left out(just skimmed through the thread)...Rios was owed over SIXTY MILLION when this deal went down. Nick is owed 44 million or so after this year. That is a lot of difference in salary. Not to mention, you have Rios on your roster for 2 more seasons.

Also, weren't the Jays going through some financial issues at the time? They needed to get rid of payroll.

As most teams do, they put him through waivers and just decided to let the Sox eat all of his contract, as opposed to trying to work out a deal and paying some of it.

There is zero doubt that the 2 situations are different and I bet Nick has more value than what most think...Not saying he has A LOT of value but I think people would be surprised by what we could get for him, especially if the Orioles were willing to pay some of his contract.

Hanley is a worse comp than Rios. If Markakis was coming off three seasons of 7.5, 7.4, and 4.7 WAR, not only would his trade value still be high, but nobody on here would even think of dealing him after a third of a season. Instead, he's been about league average for two seasons, had what now looks like a career year in 2008 (highest BABIP, walk rate, UZR of his career, and the last two by huge amounts), and has fallen off a cliff this season.

The Rios comp is imperfect, but do you realize that when Rios was traded after 100 mediocre games in 2009 (in which he still put up 1.2 WAR...Markakis is on pace for around .5 this year), he had a better career than Markakis? He was coming off of two straight 5 win seasons.

Would we really be looking to trade for a (from an objective viewpoint) league average outfielder with one career year to dream on, making over 10M a year, and with a terrible 2011? I can just see the posts..."I'd take a look at Markakis but they'd have to eat most of that contract." "He'd be an interesting flier but they'd want more than he's worth." "I'd move a couple decent prospects, maybe Berken and an AAA bat like Snyder, but not going to pay a lot for a guy on a statistical decline." And in my opinion, they'd be right. I'm not a Markakis hater and I have no agenda, but right now, the numbers simply don't support the intensity of the defense he's getting on here. He has been a big disappointment.

Tell me I'm wrong.

[Sports Guy]

Hanley is a worse comp than Rios. If Markakis was coming off three seasons of 7.5, 7.4, and 4.7 WAR, not only would his trade value still be high, but nobody on here would even think of dealing him after a third of a season. Instead, he's been about league average for two seasons, had what now looks like a career year in 2008 (highest BABIP, walk rate, UZR of his career, and the last two by huge amounts), and has fallen off a cliff this season.

The Rios comp is imperfect, but do you realize that when Rios was traded after 100 mediocre games in 2009 (in which he still put up 1.2 WAR...Markakis is on pace for around .5 this year), he had a better career than Markakis? He was coming off of two straight 5 win seasons.

Would we really be looking to trade for a (from an objective viewpoint) league average outfielder with one career year to dream on, making over 10M a year, and with a terrible 2011? I can just see the posts..."I'd take a look at Markakis but they'd have to eat most of that contract." "He'd be an interesting flier but they'd want more than he's worth." "I'd move a couple decent prospects, maybe Berken and an AAA bat like Snyder, but not going to pay a lot for a guy on a statistical decline." And in my opinion, they'd be right. I'm not a Markakis hater and I have no agenda, but right now, the numbers simply don't support the intensity of the defense he's getting on here. He has been a big disappointment.

Tell me I'm wrong.

He has been a big disappointment and you are wrong.

People around the sport always talk about how good a player he is. People aren't naive enough to allow a few bad months to drastically change their opinion on a player, especially one who is still just 27 and one who most people would say that being in this pathetic franchise has likely taken a mental toll on him.

[JTrea81]

He has been a big disappointment and you are wrong.

People around the sport always talk about how good a player he is. People aren't naive enough to allow a few bad months to drastically change their opinion on a player, especially one who is still just 27 and one who most people would say that being in this pathetic franchise has likely taken a mental toll on him.

So you think somebody would claim him on waivers?

[waroriole]

Then maybe you would like to explain how it's "fanboyish" to assume that Markakis will hit at an .805 OPS going forward when his career OPS is .816 and last year's OPS was .806.

So, Mr. Cat, are you just not going to respond to this?

[Pedro Cerrano]

So you think somebody would claim him on waivers?

I think several teams would. The first team, I believe, to have dibs would be the Royals? And I think they'd claim him in a heart-beat.

[Sports Guy]

So you think somebody would claim him on waivers?

I think there is a very good chance someone would.

[SrMeowMeow]

So, Mr. Cat, are you just not going to respond to this?

I didn't see it? Replace "fanboyish" with "optimistic" if you like. I wasn't trying to be offensive.

I just don't see Markakis as much more than that. His great peripherals from 2008 are gone. He's capped out at a 10.3% walk rate since then and hasn't come close to the 14.2% number that was a big part of his elite season. His ISO peaked at .185 and has been declining for four seasons. His career OPS is .816 but his updated ZIPS projection is .714! Do you really want to take the over on an .805 OPS for the rest of the season (not counting what he's already done)?

This is just such a classic case of overvaluing an Oriole. Look at the Hunter Pence threads...he's been better over his career than Markakis, hasn't shown a decline, and people were talking about the same old, "Berken and a few low level prospects" type offers. At this point, there's no reason to think Markakis will be a particularly good player going forward. He'd have to rebound to be an average player again.

[Sports Guy]

I didn't see it? Replace "fanboyish" with "optimistic" if you like. I wasn't trying to be offensive.

I just don't see Markakis as much more than that. His great peripherals from 2008 are gone. He's capped out at a 10.3% walk rate since then and hasn't come close to the 14.2% number that was a big part of his elite season. His ISO peaked at .185 and has been declining for four seasons. His career OPS is .816 but his updated ZIPS projection is .714! Do you really want to take the over on an .805 OPS for the rest of the season (not counting what he's already done)?

This is just such a classic case of overvaluing an Oriole. Look at the Hunter Pence threads...he's been better over his career than Markakis, hasn't shown a decline, and people were talking about the same old, "Berken and a few low level prospects" type offers. At this point, there's no reason to think Markakis will be a particularly good player going forward. He'd have to rebound to be an average player again.

Wow, as if this thread didn't look bad enough, you throw this out there?

[waroriole]

I didn't see it? Replace "fanboyish" with "optimistic" if you like. I wasn't trying to be offensive.

I just don't see Markakis as much more than that. His great peripherals from 2008 are gone. He's capped out at a 10.3% walk rate since then and hasn't come close to the 14.2% number that was a big part of his elite season. His ISO peaked at .185 and has been declining for four seasons. His career OPS is .816 but his updated ZIPS projection is .714! Do you really want to take the over on an .805 OPS for the rest of the season (not counting what he's already done)?

This is just such a classic case of overvaluing an Oriole. Look at the Hunter Pence threads...he's been better over his career than Markakis, hasn't shown a decline, and people were talking about the same old, "Berken and a few low level prospects" type offers. At this point, there's no reason to think Markakis will be a particularly good player going forward. He'd have to rebound to be an average player again.

OK, it was just the 3rd time I'd asked you in this thread.

I think you're relying way too much on this year's stats. Some of his numbers this year are poor, and some of it is bad luck. His BB rate is poor 6.8%, career 9.6%. Pretty much everything else suggests he's had some bad luck this year. His IFFB is ridiculously high at 17.4%, career 7.6%. His LD% is up, at 21.7%. His BABIP is 50 points lower than his career average of .323. If you think that this is what Nick is going forward then just say that. Otherwise, stop looking at this year as anything but an outlier.

Also, I'm not saying that his OPS will be .805+ this year, but going forward. That is what the discussion was about. Nick going forward, since this was a discussion as to whether or not to waive him.

As far as his ZIPS projection, I see 2 numbers. ZIPS ® is .767 and ZIPS (U) is .715. I don't know the difference between the two. Does anybody?

If you want to create a strawman argument about some people not being as impressed by Pence as Markakis then go right ahead, but people who would offer for Pence what you suggested aren't the kind of folks I would take seriously.

[El Gordo]

I don't understrand why people can't be objective about players. I think Markakis has a fair chance to be worth the 2.4 WAR required to equal his contract for the remaining years left on it. A small chance he'll have an upswing and be worth more. But he has definitely declined over the past 3 years and I think few teams would be willing to risk a reclaimation project without the O's eating a lot of his salary. I think we are better off hoping he can return to form that trying to move him.