Jump to content

Everyday Players

UnashamedRiver

By UnashamedRiver
in Minors

Recommended Posts

UnashamedRiver Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

UnashamedRiver

Posted
  • Author
Posted
And I'd bet that most if not all of those guys still pitching at 27 and beyond improved from their rookie season. At this point, you've pretty much lost all credibility by saying that Matusz and Britton have failed.

show me with a pitcher with an ERA north of 8 that is having success. That's a whole other debate, but most pitchers do not pass the audition. Obviously the ones that have passed have improved. That's why they are permanent hires. But permanent hires are not the average pitcher. You are missing my original point entirely. I said that the average pitcher gets worse every year. There are dozens of pitchers who improve late into their career. The minority is not what I'm focusing on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 110
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Enjoy Terror Hangout Grand Counsel

Enjoy Terror

Posted
Posted

Here's a guy with an ERA north of 4.50 for his 24 and 25-age years, and then settled down and turned into a CY-candidate (third in voting) at 28.

Another guy who settled down at 26.

Matusz is 24 and was playing hurt for a while and lost some velocity. If he takes some time off over the off-season, gets healthy and works his arm strength back up, there's no reason why two years from now he can't be like the aforementioned guys. Britton is the same way. Arrieta less so, but I'm not writing him off yet. I can't and won't try to defend Tillman though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UnashamedRiver Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

UnashamedRiver

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Here's a guy with an ERA north of 4.50 for his 24 and 25-age years, and then settled down and turned into a CY-candidate (third in voting) at 28.

Another guy who settled down at 26.

Matusz is 24 and was playing hurt for a while and lost some velocity. If he takes some time off over the off-season, gets healthy and works his arm strength back up, there's no reason why two years from now he can't be like the aforementioned guys. Britton is the same way. Arrieta less so, but I'm not writing him off yet. I can't and won't try to defend Tillman though.

I'm not writing off anybody. It would be silly to say you cannot improve after age 25. It's just that the average pitcher does not. Chances are we have seen the best of Matusz and company.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Enjoy Terror Hangout Grand Counsel

Enjoy Terror

Posted
Posted

Based on what? What about Matusz and company says they're all average?

Ian Kennedy is another guy who could be exactly like Matusz. Crappy 8+ ERA at 23 years old, looking like a bust. Now he's 26 on the D-Backs with 15 wins and a 3.22 ERA.

"Matusz and company" all have this exact kind of talent that Kennedy had coming out of the minors. There is absolutely nothing AVERAGE about these guys. All highly touted guys by Baseball America with great stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrOrioles90210 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

DrOrioles90210

Posted
Posted
show me with a pitcher with an ERA north of 8 that is having success. That's a whole other debate, but most pitchers do not pass the audition. Obviously the ones that have passed have improved. That's why they are permanent hires. But permanent hires are not the average pitcher. You are missing my original point entirely. I said that the average pitcher gets worse every year. There are dozens of pitchers who improve late into their career. The minority is not what I'm focusing on.

How long are those auditions for "average" pitchers though? It often takes a couple years for pitchers to learn how to pitch at the big league level and "average" pitchers don't get that long. Prospects and guys who find initial success get extended auditions and usually improve.

Please give me an example of an "average" pitcher, because at this point I think you mean a AAAA guy and not a pitcher who anyone expects to be successful in the majors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UnashamedRiver Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

UnashamedRiver

Posted
  • Author
Posted
How long are those auditions for "average" pitchers though? It often takes a couple years for pitchers to learn how to pitch at the big league level and "average" pitchers don't get that long. Prospects and guys who find initial success get extended auditions and usually improve.

Please give me an example of an "average" pitcher, because at this point I think you mean a AAAA guy and not a pitcher who anyone expects to be successful in the majors.

Here is an example. Let's say you have 10 young pitchers. More than half of them will not improve over the course of their career. Of course you have guys like Halladay who completely transform from horrible and turn into aces.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrOrioles90210 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

DrOrioles90210

Posted
Posted
Here is an example. Let's say you have 10 young pitchers. More than half of them will not improve over the course of their career. Of course you have guys like Halladay who completely transform from horrible and turn into aces.

Give me a specific example. Just name one guy who you consider an "average" pitcher.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UnashamedRiver Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

UnashamedRiver

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Give me a specific example. Just name one guy who you consider an "average" pitcher.

An average pitcher is Chris Tillman. Although he is not average according to his ERA+, in fact he's far below. The league average is a very high standard that very few pitchers can pitch to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrOrioles90210 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

DrOrioles90210

Posted
Posted
An average pitcher is Chris Tillman. Although he is not average according to his ERA+, in fact he's far below. The league average is a very high standard that very few pitchers can pitch to.

Earlier in the thread you discounted the Cy Young winners because they made their debut before 24. Tillman was 21.

And you can't say Tillman won't improve because he's still only 23.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Enjoy Terror Hangout Grand Counsel

Enjoy Terror

Posted
Posted

Oh you must mean like Mike Gonzalez, with his 8.3 K/9 (10.4 career), which is currently better than John Smoltz's career 8.0 K/9. I guess Mike Gonzalez will last in the league as long as Smoltz did (21 years).

Or Jason Berken's 7.8 K/9 this year? I guess he'll be a stud then, throw him in the rotation when that shoulder gets fixed. Oh but his ERA got worse as his K/9 got better this year?

Or is Jim Johnson's 6.5 K/9 this year better? Maybe he belongs in the rotation. Because Matusz's 6.4 K/9 is pretty similar... yet one has the worst ERA on the team and the other has the best?

K/9 is not any predictor of long term success or immediate failure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • OnlyOneOriole
      The 2024 Trade Deadline

      By OnlyOneOriole · Posted

      I don't think it is really the past 5 games.  It is the next 4 months, potential playoffs, and all of next year that has people concerned.  Remember these elbows aren't just taking guys out this year, but most of next year as well. And Burnes probably won't be around next either. 
    • OnlyOneOriole
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By OnlyOneOriole · Posted

      It is just a real shame that the Os are going through all of these elbows.  Take away all of the elbows going back to last year with Felix and I would say the Os are a lock to get to the WS and would have a great chance to win it all. I haven't seen this many injuries from a teams top guys in such a short amount of time in maybe.....forever. I am starting to wonder if it is something the Os are doing as far as their training.   Trying to obtain too much spin, revs, and velocity. I am a big Colts fan and for years we have complained about all of the knee blowouts and hammy injuries they get when playing at home.  Finally the Colts realized that it might be turf related from their home field and replaced it this past spring.    
    • now
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By now · Posted

      I've been a fan for a long time too but mostly remember a lot of near misses, not tailspin collapses. 2005 comes to mind (Raffygate, Sammy Sosa, Lee Mazzilli, et al.)... what other seasons are you thinking of, to create scar tissue?
    • OnlyOneOriole
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By OnlyOneOriole · Posted

      I really like Kremer.  Seems like a good guy and a solid arm. But he is not going to be the guy to get you into the playoffs and he especially won't be a guy between a make or break WS championship. 
    • Philip
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By Philip · Posted

      We can hope he’s back to being his #5 self, but he’ll now be a #3, and let’s all x the fingers
    • OnlyOneOriole
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By OnlyOneOriole · Posted

      The 5 game losing streak is a 5 game losing streak.  I am not too concerned about that unless it turns into something bigger. Every team goes through it.  What I am concerned about is losing 3 starters and 2 great relievers since last August with not a lot to replace them other than Burnes.  And they won't even back for most of next year...if at all. Add in the fact that Burnes is more than likely leaving after this year?  Our cupboard pitching wise is pretty bare as it looks right now. So imo you absolutely need to trade some of your AA and AAA players to get pitching help now and for next year.  This team is too good to waste years on players like GH and AR. 
    • Philip
      I know nobody wants to hear this but......

      By Philip · Posted

      Trading Drew Rom for Flaherty was not a big swing. It was trading a maybe prospect for a “hope he’s ok” guy with three months before FA. I am increasingly convinced Mike won’t make any bigger move this season, and what we have is basically what we will have.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...