Everyday Players

[Frobby]

Here is a list from 2008 of pitchers who were ages 22-25 and got at least 10 starts. Pitchers with an asterisk threw enough innings to qualify and had an ERA under 4.00 in 2008. The pitchers shown in bold have made 10 starts this year. The ones shown in italics haven't played in the majors this year.

Joba Chamberlain

Sean Gallagher

Matt Harrison

Felix Hernandez*

Clay Buckholz

John Danks*

Aaron Laffey

Jesse Litsch*

Dallas Braden

Fausto Carmona

Kyle Davies

Dana Eveland

Matt Garza

Zach Greinke*

Luke Hochevar

Edwin Jackson

Scott Kazmir (1 inning)

John Lester*

Francisco Liriano

Luis Mendoza

Garrett Olson (4.1 innings)

Kevin Slowey (20.1 innings)

Greg Smith

Jeremy Bonderman

Scott Feldman (7.1 innings)

Gavin Floyd*

Radhames Liz

Glenn Perkins

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Ervin Santana*

Andy Sonnanstine

Jeremy Sowers

Justin Verlander

Jered Weaver

So, that's 34 pitchers, of whom 8 haven't seen major league action this year. 17 remain starting pitchers who have gotten 10+ starts. Of the other 9, a few have turned into useful relief pitchers, while a few are on life support.

Overall, I'd say this one year sample bears out that the majority of pitchers age 25 or under don't improve, and don't remain major league starters. Obviously, this is just one season, there are pitchers on the list who had injuries derail them, and there are some who are effective relievers, blah blah.

[Enjoy Terror]

I see guys like Tillman, who relied mostly on a straight fastball in the minors to get by as one of the guys that don't pan out. Three straight disappointing seasons of a 5+ ERA and not really any improvement.

Matusz, Arrieta and Britton are just different. You can watch them pitch and feel like they have the stuff to succeed. I never felt that way about Tillman. It's tough to succeed on a mostly awful team, but I think Matusz coming back next year with a strong arm, he still has the stuff to be the Orioles' Ian Kennedy. Arrieta can be the Orioles' John Lackey. Britton is a friggin rookie. These are highly touted pitchers with the stuff to succeed. I think if we're getting to where they are 26 and 27 years old and it hasn't clicked, then maybe it's time to hang it up.

UnashamedWhatshisface is saying "This is the last we've seen of Matusz and Company"? That's straight up ignorance. A person who does not know a lot about baseball would say something like that.

[DrOrioles90210]

So, that's 34 pitchers, of whom 8 haven't seen major league action this year. 17 remain starting pitchers who have gotten 10+ starts. Of the other 9, a few have turned into useful relief pitchers, while a few are on life support.

Overall, I'd say this one year sample bears out that the majority of pitchers age 25 or under don't improve, and don't remain major league starters.

Going by these numbers, I could say that the majority of pitchers 25 or under do improve since exactly half seem to be doing fine.

[UnashamedRiver]

Here is a list from 2008 of pitchers who were ages 22-25 and got at least 10 starts. Pitchers with an asterisk threw enough innings to qualify and had an ERA under 4.00 in 2008. The pitchers shown in bold have made 10 starts this year. The ones shown in italics haven't played in the majors this year.

Joba Chamberlain

Sean Gallagher

Matt Harrison

Felix Hernandez*

Clay Buckholz

John Danks*

Aaron Laffey

Jesse Litsch*

Dallas Braden

Fausto Carmona

Kyle Davies

Dana Eveland

Matt Garza

Zach Greinke*

Luke Hochevar

Edwin Jackson

Scott Kazmir (1 inning)

John Lester*

Francisco Liriano

Luis Mendoza

Garrett Olson (4.1 innings)

Kevin Slowey (20.1 innings)

Greg Smith

Jeremy Bonderman

Scott Feldman (7.1 innings)

Gavin Floyd*

Radhames Liz

Glenn Perkins

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Ervin Santana*

Andy Sonnanstine

Jeremy Sowers

Justin Verlander

Jered Weaver

So, that's 34 pitchers, of whom 8 haven't seen major league action this year. 17 remain starting pitchers who have gotten 10+ starts. Of the other 9, a few have turned into useful relief pitchers, while a few are on life support.

Overall, I'd say this one year sample bears out that the majority of pitchers age 25 or under don't improve, and don't remain major league starters. Obviously, this is just one season, there are pitchers on the list who had injuries derail them, and there are some who are effective relievers, blah blah.

Excellent post. It is quite shocking because it goes against conventional wisdom. So often you hear. He's only 24, he'll get better. It's just wrong. Most pitchers at 22-25 are as good as they ever will be.

[UnashamedRiver]

But that doesn't disagree with his theory at all. He made it very clear he was talking about the average pitcher, not good pitchers.

I think he exaggerated his point just a bit, and maybe was a bit rude in the way he presented his position in his first few posts. But that doesn't change his key point -- the vast majority of pitchers who debut in the major leagues don't make it. Most of them don't get any better, and when management sees that, they are dismissed in favor of the next crop. The guys who are good at 28-29 are a minor subset of all pitchers who were given an opportunity to start at ages 22-25. So, it's perfectly reasonable to question whether the Orioles' young pitchers are going to improve with experience. Chances are good that some of them won't.

Yes. That is exactly my point.

[UnashamedRiver]

Of course pitchers aged 28-29 have the best rate stats. All of the bad pitchers have been weeded out by that age. If you suck and you are 28, why are you even in the MLB? What team would want you at that age if you are not getting done? You mean to tell me that if Matusz hasn't figured it out by the time he is 28 he will still be here getting his "learning" starts?

[sangar]

But that doesn't disagree with his theory at all. He made it very clear he was talking about the average pitcher, not good pitchers.

I think he exaggerated his point just a bit, and maybe was a bit rude in the way he presented his position in his first few posts. But that doesn't change his key point -- the vast majority of pitchers who debut in the major leagues don't make it. Most of them don't get any better, and when management sees that, they are dismissed in favor of the next crop. The guys who are good at 28-29 are a minor subset of all pitchers who were given an opportunity to start at ages 22-25. So, it's perfectly reasonable to question whether the Orioles' young pitchers are going to improve with experience. Chances are good that some of them won't.

If you take every pitcher that has ever thrown a ball in the Major Leagues no one would question the fact that the vast majority have not succeeded. That is common sense.

When he takes a flawed study and cites it as proof that "Britton, Matusz, and Arietta are failures", I take issue.

[UnashamedRiver]

If you take every pitcher that has ever thrown a ball in the Major Leagues no one would question the fact that the vast majority have not succeeded. That is common sense.

When he takes a flawed study and cites it as proof that "Britton, Matusz, and Arietta are failures", I take issue.

I never said that was proof they were failures. To this point though, those 3 have failed. I said that they are unlikely to improve upon their rookie seasons.

[UnashamedRiver]

Going by these numbers, I could say that the majority of pitchers 25 or under do improve since exactly half seem to be doing fine.

no they haven't.

[DrOrioles90210]

no they haven't.

So 17 out of 34 (50%) can mean the majority when you want it to but the other 17 out of 34 (also 50%) can't? How is half, exactly half, the majority in any sense?

[UnashamedRiver]

So 17 out of 34 (50%) can mean the majority when you want it to but the other 17 out of 34 (also 50%) can't? How is half, exactly half, the majority in any sense?

Just because they remain starters doesn't mean they have gotten better. Roy Halladay isn't any better now than he was when he was 25-26.

[DrOrioles90210]

Just because they remain starters doesn't mean they have gotten better. Roy Halladay isn't any better now than he was when he was 25-26.

Not only have you ignored my point every single time I've tried to get you to address it, but you've told me that guys like Halladay aren't included in the majority yet you try to use him to make your point.

I understand that most pitchers will not improve once they reach the majors. You're saying that most pitchers make their debut at around 24-25 and that is when your studies show that pitchers start deteriorating physically.

I'm saying that most pitchers don't get the 3 years it takes to improve. I would be interested in looking at that data. Learning how to pitch in the big leagues isn't going to happen over the course of 10 to 15 starts. However, coaches and scouts can determine how good a pitcher's stuff is in 10 to 15 starts and whether it's worth giving that pitcher an extended chance at learning how to pitch. The only thing I'm getting from your study is that pitchers without good stuff don't improve, and I think that part of why is because they aren't given a chance.

[UnashamedRiver]

Not only have you ignored my point every single time I've tried to get you to address it, but you've told me that guys like Halladay aren't included in the majority yet you try to use him to make your point.

I understand that most pitchers will not improve once they reach the majors. You're saying that most pitchers make their debut at around 24-25 and that is when your studies show that pitchers start deteriorating physically.

I'm saying that most pitchers don't get the 3 years it takes to improve. I would be interested in looking at that data. Learning how to pitch in the big leagues isn't going to happen over the course of 10 to 15 starts. However, coaches and scouts can determine how good a pitcher's stuff is in 10 to 15 starts and whether it's worth giving that pitcher an extended chance at learning how to pitch. The only thing I'm getting from your study is that pitchers without good stuff don't improve, and I think that part of why is because they aren't given a chance.

Most pitchers get their chance like Tillman, Matusz, Britton. They just aren't good enough to get an extended look. I've finally convinced you that most pitchers don't improve once they reach the MLB. That was my entire point. There is no point in continuing the thread because that was the reason I created the thread. Cya later.

[DrOrioles90210]

Most pitchers get their chance like Tillman, Matusz, Britton. They just aren't good enough to get an extended look.

And what I'm saying is that pitchers won't improve unless they get that extended look. Most pitchers don't get an extended look so most pitchers won't improve. That is all I'm trying to say.

[UnashamedRiver]

And what I'm saying is that pitchers won't improve unless they get that extended look. Most pitchers don't get an extended look so most pitchers won't improve. That is all I'm trying to say.

ok fair point. I guess we'll never know.