Nick Delmonico #4 prospect

[Frobby]

You need to follow this dream up with a dream about Bundy, Bundy, Drake, Bridwell, Klein.....

I am not ready to give up on Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman just yet. I still think we can get a good yield from that group. We can't count on them all coming through, but I'd be really disappointed if nobody turned into anything good.

[Tony-OH]

I do have a couple of questions for you, Tony:

1. Do you see Hoes slipping from #3 to #5 as a downgrade in your evaluation, or is it more a case that two very good new prospects have slipped in ahead of him and Schoop has been upgraded?

Hoes "slipped" to number five because I believe both Delmonico and Schoop have a higher ceiling. Hoes' ceiling is not really that high, although solid major leaguer is not that bad. Hoes is as high as he is based off the success in the second half at Bowie last year. the plate discipline and the fact that his power may be starting to develop is intriguing. Bridwell has a higher ceiling than Hoes, but he has a lot more question marks which over took him.

2. Same question with Bobby Bundy (I guess we will hear more about this later). Does he stay out of the top 10 because these younger prospects are that exciting, or is it more a case that you see limitations that belie his good stats at Frederick?

I don't want to get too much into Bundy because the answers will be in his write up, but it's pretty clear by now that the scouting reports don't match the "success" he had this year at Frederick so he was dropped accordingly.

This is a list with three players who have never played in the minors, and two who haven't played full-season ball, plus Bridwell who had just a few outings (not very successful) at Delmarva. That is a list that is long on promise and pretty good ceilings, but short on an actual track record of performance. No help is coming for the major league team in 2012, and maybe not much in 2013 either. In 2014, watch out!

Pretty good overview here. I like some of the upsides of the guys in the top ten but I agree, a better system would have these guys a little lower. I would prefer to have more guys in the top ten at higher levels which means they've proven themselves in competition, and are not just a good young kid with a lot to prove. This is probably my most inexperienced top ten that I've put together, but at the end of the day, I have seen some of the other guys and been left unimpressed. The system has a lot of guys that you look at and say they can be a 4th OF, platoon guy, 5th starter, platoon or up and down guy, but I tried to put the guys who have a chance to be starters in the major leagues at the top of the list.

There is a little bit of the "shiny nickle" syndrome here I'll admit. I'd rather put a guy with the potential to be starter over a guy I've seen enough to evaluate that he's not going to be a starter, but that guy might actually have better odds of actually making it to the major leagues.

Guys like Delmonico, Esposito, Lino, Davis and Bridwell all have high upsides, but also could completely be busts. We just haven't seen them enough against good professional competition yet. Honestly, we can put Dylan Bundy in that category as well, although I think only injuries could stop him. I know I've never put three guys who haven't played an inning of professional baseball in my top ten before. Partially that's an indictment on the system, but also because Jordan added three pretty good players, all of which were considered 1st round selections at some point.

In the top ten, only Klein and Hoes have played in AA. That's not good for a team that needs to be able to produce talent ready to help the club every year.

The good news though is that a future infield of Esposito, Machado, Schoop and Delmonico could be a very real possibility. The chances all they all won't make it, but it's nice to finally have a few guys that seriously have a chance to be solid major leaguers or even more.

[StottyByNature]

I am not ready to give up on Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman just yet. I still think we can get a good yield from that group. We can't count on them all coming through, but I'd be really disappointed if nobody turned into anything good.

Yeah, that would be really disappointing. I think Britton and Arrieta will be at least solid ML starters. Matusz is a wild card, I'm willing to give him the offseason to see if he can get himself back into form. Sadly, I don't have any faith in Tillman. It's amazing what losing just a few mph can do to a career.

[Flosman]

Yeah, that would be really disappointing. I think Britton and Arrieta will be at least solid ML starters. Matusz is a wild card, I'm willing to give him the offseason to see if he can get himself back into form. Sadly, I don't have any faith in Tillman. It's amazing what losing just a few mph can do to a career.

The MPH hurt but not has much has the straight wild in the zone fastball. I learned my lesson with this when Penn was the next hot thing. Guys can look like they are going to be number ones all the way to AA if they can throw strikes with a 93+ fastball and have a big breaking ball. The thing that kills theseguys is when ML and even the 4A guys figure out that while their breaking ball is hard to hit it is rarely a strike, so don't swing at it. So at the highest level hitters wait them out get them into FB situations and punish their mistakes. Then the pitcher tries to nibble with the FB and it just snowballs from there.

[Frobby]

There is a little bit of the "shiny nickle" syndrome here I'll admit. I'd rather put a guy with the potential to be starter over a guy I've seen enough to evaluate that he's not going to be a starter, but that guy might actually have better odds of actually making it to the major leagues.

Over the last few years, I have sort of come around to your way of thinking on this. Sadly, I can't think of a case where you left a more seasoned player off your top 10 and that player turned out to be anything of consequence as a major leaguer. Maybe David Hernandez (who was #11 after the 2008 season) will be about the most successful, and even so, you had him pegged as a "solid bullpen guy." Bergy (who I think was #16 or so in 2008) looked like he might be the exception in 2009, but he's slipped back since then and at this point we'll see what happens with him. So, I really don't mind when you reach a bit for guys who have higher ceilings, even if a lot of them fall by the wayside as they move up the ladder. I just wish we had enough established, higher ceiling talent to move these guys a little further down the ladder.

[LookinUp]

Hoes "slipped" to number five because I believe both Delmonico and Schoop have a higher ceiling. Hoes' ceiling is not really that high, although solid major leaguer is not that bad. Hoes is as high as he is based off the success in the second half at Bowie last year. the plate discipline and the fact that his power may be starting to develop is intriguing. Bridwell has a higher ceiling than Hoes, but he has a lot more question marks which over took him.

I don't want to get too much into Bundy because the answers will be in his write up, but it's pretty clear by now that the scouting reports don't match the "success" he had this year at Frederick so he was dropped accordingly.

Pretty good overview here. I like some of the upsides of the guys in the top ten but I agree, a better system would have these guys a little lower. I would prefer to have more guys in the top ten at higher levels which means they've proven themselves in competition, and are not just a good young kid with a lot to prove. This is probably my most inexperienced top ten that I've put together, but at the end of the day, I have seen some of the other guys and been left unimpressed. The system has a lot of guys that you look at and say they can be a 4th OF, platoon guy, 5th starter, platoon or up and down guy, but I tried to put the guys who have a chance to be starters in the major leagues at the top of the list.

There is a little bit of the "shiny nickle" syndrome here I'll admit. I'd rather put a guy with the potential to be starter over a guy I've seen enough to evaluate that he's not going to be a starter, but that guy might actually have better odds of actually making it to the major leagues.

Guys like Delmonico, Esposito, Lino, Davis and Bridwell all have high upsides, but also could completely be busts. We just haven't seen them enough against good professional competition yet. Honestly, we can put Dylan Bundy in that category as well, although I think only injuries could stop him. I know I've never put three guys who haven't played an inning of professional baseball in my top ten before. Partially that's an indictment on the system, but also because Jordan added three pretty good players, all of which were considered 1st round selections at some point.

In the top ten, only Klein and Hoes have played in AA. That's not good for a team that needs to be able to produce talent ready to help the club every year.

The good news though is that a future infield of Esposito, Machado, Schoop and Delmonico could be a very real possibility. The chances all they all won't make it, but it's nice to finally have a few guys that seriously have a chance to be solid major leaguers or even more.

Very realistic take on our system. It's not very good with actual results so far, but it does have serious potential.

If a few guys like Hobgood, Coffey, Berry, Avery, Joseph, Miclat, Esquivel, Townsend and others from the group of young pitchers could step up to what we see as their potential, or even exceed their ceiling (possible with Miclat/Townsend?), our system could be looking like a gem by this time next year. Alternatively, if they are what we thought they were and a few of our top 10 guys fail to impress again in 2012, we'll be driving in neutral on the Autobahn yet again.

[NCRaven]

The good news would be if these same guys have production in 2012 that matches their spot on this list. Then Hoes will have had AAA experience, Machado and Schoop AA (at least), the rookies will have a full season of professional baseball under their belts, etc.. Not sure I would have had Delmonico quite this high and am sorry to see Bobby Bundy so low. Hoping Nick proves Tony right and Bobby proves him wrong!!

[eb45]

The only differences between my top ten and Tony's (apart from placement) are that I had Adams (8) and Bobby Bundy (4) and not Davis (11) and Lino (13). Except for Bundy and Hoes (9) I haven't missed by more than three spots yet.

[Frobby]

Very realistic take on our system. It's not very good with actual results so far, but it does have serious potential.

If a few guys like Hobgood, Coffey, Berry, Avery, Joseph, Miclat, Esquivel, Townsend and others from the group of young pitchers could step up to what we see as their potential, or even exceed their ceiling (possible with Miclat/Townsend?), our system could be looking like a gem by this time next year. Alternatively, if they are what we thought they were and a few of our top 10 guys fail to impress again in 2012, we'll be driving in neutral on the Autobahn yet again.

Unless there are a lot of injuries, the system almost has to look stronger in a year, since nobody of any consequence is going to be graduating to the majors by then and we will have another #4 pick to add plus hopefully several guys who were hurt in 2011 re-establishing themselves.

[Tony-OH]

Unless there are a lot of injuries, the system almost has to look stronger in a year, since nobody of any consequence is going to be graduating to the majors by then and we will have another #4 pick to add plus hopefully several guys who were hurt in 2011 re-establishing themselves.

That's a good point. The system should be a lot stronger next year since few of these guys will lose their rookie status. Hoes is probably the only guy in the top 10 with a chance, barring a major injury, to see some time in Baltimore next year.

[SrMeowMeow]

I am genuinely excited about this coming year now. If Duquette revamps the player development system and we start funneling money into the draft and the international market, we could be a force.

[allstar1579]

My impression of that statement was that he has the best overall tools of plate discipline, power, and average for a high school hitter. A lot of Machado's value is in his defensive ability at shortstop, even though I think his bat has a chance to be pretty special as well. If Machado was a first baseman, I doubt he would have been drafted as high as he was. Saying that, I'm going totally off the scouting reports on Delmonico since I really haven't seen too much of him besides some video I found on the net. I like the swing a lot and anyone who knows me knows I love guys with good plate discipline mixed with some power.

When I was put together the list, I ran it through a few scouts I knew and not one of them thought I overshot Delmonico. i guess we'll see, but from what I heard, he sounds like he has a chance to be pretty special.

I've heard high praise for him too, I picked him from 6 down to 4 because I figured he'd be in there somewhere. A couple people I talked to said of course our draft was about Bundy, but with guys like that you are supposed to get it right, the real key was getting Nick D. where we did and getting him to sign. One guy called him Hosmer-lite.

[SrMeowMeow]

Honestly, I forgot that we signed both of our overslot guys that we assumed were just insurance - Delmonico and Esposito. It's blatantly obvious what a boon that's been to our system. Just imagine if we'd signed another overslot or two, not given up the Mike Gonzalez pick, and maybe finessed a comp pick somewhere - our top 10 could be top 10 in baseball.

[Greg Pappas]

Good stuff Tony, as always. While I understand the Finley comment, he wasn't a HS'er, but rather a 22-yr old Southern Illinois product. Thanks for everything.

I loved the pick and had high hopes for Delmonico. Even more so now.

[Tony-OH]

Good stuff Tony, as always. While I understand the Finley comment, he wasn't a HS'er, but rather a 22-yr old Southern Illinois product. Thanks for everything.

I loved the pick and had high hopes for Delmonico. Even more so now.

Thanks for the correction Greg. Not sure why I had it in my head that Finley was a high school draftee. I'll get that fixed.