Dear Amber - 2B article

[Lucky Jim]

It's fair to say I took the "above AA" comment a bit far, but I think it's also fair to say that hitting .297 for 2/3 of a season in AAA as a 26 year-old isn't anything to write home about. He may very well prove to be a decent pickup, and his atrocious 2008 and 2009 AAA seasons (.215 BA/.657 OPS and .196 BA/.638 OPS respectively) might have been due largely to health issues, but putting him in the same conversation as a player who actually put together a productive ML season in 2011 isn't justifiable, IMO (let alone saying that Antonelli is likely to perform as well or better in 2012).

No argument with that.

I think there are intriguing signs that Antonelli could be of value, though. If you look at his numbers even in his down years, his K-rate didn't skyrocket, his BB-rate didn't crater - he just lost BABIP and SLG. He maintained roughly a .100 delta between BA and OBP. But his ISO evaporated. He dropped .100 in BA. That goes a lot way to suggesting an injury that was sapping his ability to make solid contact.

His 26 y.o. slash line at AAA is wholly preferable to Andino's slash line in the same league.

The fact that he popped back up post-surgery is encouraging. As is the fact that he did it in the Int'l League, not the PCL.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't get the love for NakaJima. You see very few Nippon league players making the transistion to MLB. Look at the Boo-Boo the Twins made last year.

By my count, there have only been 11 Japanese position players transition from NBP to the majors. The top two are Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, both excellent players who were MVP candidates at their best. Then you have a group of 5-6 guys who had middling success like Taguchi, Jojhima, Kaz Matsui, Iguchi, Fukudome. But only a handful of players who really weren't very good - Shinjo, who wasn't even a star in Japan, and Nishioka who was hurt much of his one year in the states. Shinjo is still the only Japanese position player to come to the states, get at least 300 ABs, and not post an OPS over .700.

I see no reason to discount an entire population of ballplayers because uncertainty in their projections might be somewhat higher than in major league free agents.

[Frobby]

Last I checked he was 4th from the bottom...

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0

I think you need to consider that there are only 18 2B on this list. The main reason for that is that there are roughly 12 teams out there who don't think they have a 2B who is good enough to put out there for 500 PA.

Let's say you expand the search to 2B with 400 PA -- then you get 32 players, roughly one per team. On that list, Andino is 20th out of 32. So, that puts him at slightly below average, which is where I would have put him last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0

Now, obviously you try to avoid having a lot of starting players who are slightly below average. But in the Orioles' case, with $10 mm/yr committed to BRob for the next two years, I think you sort of have to hope that BRob can play, fall back on the slightly below average Andino if BRob can't go, or go with Antonelli if he proves to be better than Andino. I'd rather spend my money on some other problem for 2012. If BRob proves to be a lost cause, and Andino/Antonelli don't fill in adequately next year, then I'd consider throwing some money at the problem for the 2013 season.

By the way, my personal opinion is that Andino got better (especially defensively) as the year progressed, and that if he has to be the starter in 2012, he's got a decent chance to put up a higher WAR in 2012 than he did last year.

[MrOrange82]

I think you need to consider that there are only 18 2B on this list. The main reason for that is that there are roughly 12 teams out there who don't think they have a 2B who is good enough to put out there for 500 PA.

Let's say you expand the search to 2B with 400 PA -- then you get 32 players, roughly one per team. On that list, Andino is 20th out of 32. So, that puts him at slightly below average, which is where I would have put him last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0

Now, obviously you try to avoid having a lot of starting players who are slightly below average. But in the Orioles' case, with $10 mm/yr committed to BRob for the next two years, I think you sort of have to hope that BRob can play, fall back on the slightly below average Andino if BRob can't go, or go with Antonelli if he proves to be better than Andino. I'd rather spend my money on some other problem for 2012. If BRob proves to be a lost cause, and Andino/Antonelli don't fill in adequately next year, then I'd consider throwing some money at the problem for the 2013 season.

By the way, my personal opinion is that Andino got better (especially defensively) as the year progressed, and that if he has to be the starter in 2012, he's got a decent chance to put up a higher WAR in 2012 than he did last year.

At the very least, when taking a "big picture" look at the Orioles' needs this winter, I think his 2011 performance earned Andino a "it's his job to lose" tag for 2012.

[DrungoHazewood]

At the very least, when taking a "big picture" look at the Orioles' needs this winter, I think his 2011 performance earned Andino a "it's his job to lose" tag for 2012.

Or, they make upgrading second base about 12th or 16th on the list, and when they've knocked out 1-11 they can think about expending some of the remaining resources on that.

[MrOrange82]

Or, they make upgrading second base about 12th or 16th on the list, and when they've knocked out 1-11 they can think about expending some of the remaining resources on that.

If the Orioles ever prove themselves able to address needs 1-11 in a single winter (let alone a winter in which they've already said that payroll will remain essentially static), I'll be more than pleased to revisit the issue.

However, given that focusing on 2B to any significant degree would likely pull the O's away from adequately addressing some of their more glaring weaknesses, I think they'd be better served by sticking, inasmuch as possible, to the bullet points that sit a tad closer to #1.

[scOtt]

He'd be the starting 2B man with Roberts moving to DH fulltime.

His posting fee will be fairly cheap = $3-5 million and you could probably get him for a 3/7-8 contract.

I think he could be a 2.0-2.5 fWAR player for the Orioles at the very least.

You just made yourself 2 for 3.

or 2 for 57...

[scOtt]

If the only option is to DH Roberts I'd be negotiating a buyout. But I don't believe that, anyway. If he's so fragile he can't play the field he's not going to last long as a DH, either. What's the difference between diving and avoiding slides, and sliding on the bases?

This. Brian is the full-time 2Bman or he is negotiated out of baseball somehow. There are no other options.

[scOtt]

No argument with that.

I think there are intriguing signs that Antonelli could be of value, though. If you look at his numbers even in his down years, his K-rate didn't skyrocket, his BB-rate didn't crater - he just lost BABIP and SLG. He maintained roughly a .100 delta between BA and OBP. But his ISO evaporated. He dropped .100 in BA. That goes a lot way to suggesting an injury that was sapping his ability to make solid contact.

His 26 y.o. slash line at AAA is wholly preferable to Andino's slash line in the same league.

The fact that he popped back up post-surgery is encouraging. As is the fact that he did it in the Int'l League, not the PCL.

Two very good points! They don't win the argument, but they offer a LOT of hope for a former (recent) 1st round pick.

EDIT: If you ignore the pitcher to fielder (non)comparison, he reminds me of Guthrie.

[MrOrange82]

Two very good points! They don't win the argument, but they offer a LOT of hope for a former (recent) 1st round pick.

EDIT: If you ignore the pitcher to fielder (non)comparison, he reminds me of Guthrie.

Yeah, I really couldn't/wouldn't argue with anything Jim said. I think the arc of the discussion split along the lines of "is Antonelli potentially valuable" and "is Antonelli likely to be better than Andino in 2012." My points were meant to be directed at the latter line, whereas Jim's position added positivity to the former.

[scOtt]

And just because... Antonelli looks like OZ from American Pie...

[DrungoHazewood]

If the Orioles ever prove themselves able to address needs 1-11 in a single winter (let alone a winter in which they've already said that payroll will remain essentially static), I'll be more than pleased to revisit the issue.

However, given that focusing on 2B to any significant degree would likely pull the O's away from adequately addressing some of their more glaring weaknesses, I think they'd be better served by sticking, inasmuch as possible, to the bullet points that sit a tad closer to #1.

Yes, that was pretty much my point. If by some miracle they stem the bleeding in all of the other gaping shotgun wounds this team has, then, yes, by all means, put a bandaid on the little nick that is second base.