I'm almost tempted to chase Pujols

[DrungoHazewood]

It sounds like Pujols' contract is going to end up in the 10 year, $220 mm range. To me, that is dirt cheap for him. People are very focused on the fact that it's a 10-year deal , which obviously is long for a 32-year old player. To me, that misses the point -- Pujols easily could be worth $220 mm in the first 7 years of his deal, just as he was over the last 7. He could be worth 0 WAR the final three years and still make the $220 mm contract worth it.

I know Pujols had an "off year" in 2011 -- "only" a .907 OPS with 37 homers and 99 RBI. But I think that was due to the contract talks that swirled around him in spring training. Over the final 93 games, he was otherworldly -- 1.011 OPS with 29 HR and 71 RBI. In other words, he was Albert Pujols.

I really like his chances to exceed $220 mm in value over the next decade, even assuming some age-related decline and perhaps little or no value in the last year or two of the deal.

So, I am halfway tempted to see the Orioles get into the Pujols bidding now -- but no way I see it happening.

You can make the argument that he's a 7-win player now, will decline at half a win a year, and that the cost of a win will appreciate by 5% a year, and that makes him worth abou $250M over 10 years.

But you probably could have made the same case about ARod.

[DrungoHazewood]

Pujols might also "only" be 33-35 years old.

I met the guy a couple years ago (not a fan, FWIW), and I know my appraisal is practically lighter than air in this regard, but he didn't look like he was in his 20's.

I thought LeBron looked 33 when he was 18.

[Frobby]

His trend is not a positive one. He went from being a 8.5 or so WAR player to a 7.1 rWAR or 7.5 fWAR and then last year a 5.4 rWAR and a 5.1 fWAR.

I don't see much reason to be confident that he'll be worth around 200 million over his age 32-38 seasons.

You have to expect age-related decline, but I think he's got plenty left in the tank. Put it this was -- he has been worth ~ 89 rWAR in an 11-year career, and he only has to be worth about 50 rWAR over the next 10 to be worth $220 mm. I see last year as something of an aberration, not a trend, and am willing to be that he has a few 7 rWAR years left in him before getting into the 5-6 range.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Well, the Marlins have broken off talks and there is another mystery team.

[TGO]

Pujols might also "only" be 33-35 years old.

I met the guy a couple years ago (not a fan, FWIW), and I know my appraisal is practically lighter than air in this regard, but he didn't look like he was in his 20's.

Pujols came to the US legally as a teenager, enrolled in high school, later enrolled in another high school in a different state, enrolled in junior college, filed for the draft, and four years ago became a US citizen. It's somewhat implausible that he could still be lying about his age after all of that, particularly after obtaining citizenship.

[MrOrange82]

I thought LeBron looked 33 when he was 18.

That's fair...some people are simply genetic freaks. But, IMO, there's a big difference between the extent to which LeBron looked like "a man" at 18 and Pujols' situation.

I probably would have dismissed my impression a long time ago if there hadn't been other whispers about age concerns.

Either way, mweb pointed out Pujols' recent trend...couple that with the probable-fact that paying a 34-42 year old $22 million per year or more in the post-steroid era is a really, really bad idea, and I'm pretty firmly against the hypothetical chasing of Pujols.

[Chevytrckman3]

Well, the Marlins have broken off talks and there is another mystery team.

According to reports, the Angels have entered the mix. But, that wouldn't make them a mystery team. Of course, the ever peopular mystery team is to now get the Cards to bid against themselves, now that the Marlins are out.

[MrOrange82]

Pujols came to the US legally as a teenager, enrolled in high school, later enrolled in another high school in a different state, enrolled in junior college, filed for the draft, and four years ago became a US citizen. It's somewhat implausible that he could still be lying about his age after all of that, particularly after obtaining citizenship.

Now I'm straying wildly into territory I know little about, but I could've sworn that review standards were much more lax (or simply not enforced properly) up until the last 10 years or so?

[Sports Guy]

Well, the Marlins have broken off talks and there is another mystery team.

I am still waiting to hear the words...Pujols has signed with the Yankees....Mark Teixeira on the trading block.

[NewMarketSean]

The Orioles should at least gauge his interest. It's not every offseason where the best player in baseball (history?) is available and willing to sign with you as long as you pay him enough. Looks like Pujols goes where the money is. It could be Baltimore.

[SilentJames]

I thought LeBron looked 33 when he was 18.

No kidding he did. I told my Mom he was 18 once she couldn't believe it.

All those chemicals in the greater Akron water supply.

[CA-ORIOLE]

According to reports, the Angels have entered the mix. But, that wouldn't make them a mystery team. Of course, the ever peopular mystery team is to now get the Cards to bid against themselves, now that the Marlins are out.

Yeah, Angels are the primary speculation. But also the Rangers and Nationals have been mentioned. Sounds like the Marlins will not budge on giving a NTC. I heard the Cards had upped their offer before the reports of the Marlins dropping out. Sounds like the Marlins are all over Wilson now.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, Angels are the primary speculation. But also the Rangers and Nationals have been mentioned. Sounds like the Marlins will not budge on giving a NTC. I heard the Cards had upped their offer before the reports of the Marlins dropping out. Sounds like the Marlins are all over Wilson now.

Wilson and Buehrle.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I am still waiting to hear the words...Pujols has signed with the Yankees....Mark Teixeira on the trading block.

Seems absurd, but with the Yankees you never know.

[Frobby]

No kidding he did. I told my Mom he was 18 once she couldn't believe it.

All those chemicals in the greater Akron water supply.

Many of my relatives were raised in Akron, including my parents. Nothing in the water there so far as I know.