Dan Duquette: No teams were willing to offer us young prospects in return for Guthrie

[JTrea81]

Do you think Hammel will be as good as Guthrie in the AL East?

Why couldn't he be?

At least the team will know they have to score runs when he starts...

[JTrea81]

Evidently the only way a supplemental pick would have been available had the Orioles retained Guthrie is if he pitched better than last season and the Orioles had guaranteed him 12.5 million for next season. One might have happened, the other would not have.

Given the pitching competition out there Guthrie would probably have accepted arbitration.

Really the fault lies with MacPhail for not trading Guthrie sooner. Duquette just got the best he could get.

For those that wanted Gavin Floyd - Hammel could be more valuable.

[csgordos]

Given the pitching competition out there Guthrie would probably have accepted arbitration.

Really the fault lies with MacPhail for not trading Guthrie sooner. Duquette just got the best he could get.

For those that wanted Gavin Floyd - Hammel could be more valuable.

You feeling OK today? Did you hit your head on something after losing Prince to the Tigers? There is a chance that Jai Miller could be better than Josh Hamilton depending on what happens to Hamilton with injuries and the drinking thing, but I wouldn't put that in a post. Anything "could" happen, but do you seriously believe that Hammel's could be more valuable than Floyd. And by no means do I think Floyd is great. I think the board wouldn't be up in arms at all if DD traded Guts for Floyd straight up. In fact most people probably would have said AM who?

[JTrea81]

You feeling OK today? Did you hit your head on something after losing Prince to the Tigers? There is a chance that Jai Miller could be better than Josh Hamilton depending on what happens to Hamilton with injuries and the drinking thing, but I wouldn't put that in a post. Anything "could" happen, but do you seriously believe that Hammel's could be more valuable than Floyd. And by no means do I think Floyd is great. I think the board wouldn't be up in arms at all if DD traded Guts for Floyd straight up. In fact most people probably would have said AM who?

The same can be said about Jason Hammel. Since being traded to the Rockies prior to the ’09 season, he has racked up +9 wins over three seasons. He comes with his share of question marks — his strikeout rate plummeted in 2011, and his ERA has always outpaced his peripherals due to a high BABIP — but considering he will be 29 years old this season, he has the potential to be better than Guthrie. His 4.37 career SIERA is better than anything Guthrie has posted over the past five years, so you can argue that the Orioles are getting an excellent buy-low starter in this deal. Whether Hammel lives up to that potential…well, we’ll see.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/orioles-rockies-trade-jeremy-guthrie-jason-hammel/

Hammel has potential, Guthrie doesn't and we can find a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher for less and likely have a few on our roster already.

[Sports Guy]

Do you think Hammel will be as good as Guthrie in the AL East?

Its certainly very possible.

Put it this way, I think there is every bit as good a chance that Hammel puts up a sub 4.3 ERA with the O's this year as Guthrie.

That doesn't mean I think this was the move they should have made but there is certainly merit for making the move.

I personally would have preferred them to hang onto him and see what happens in the first half of the season...That is a risk I prefer to take at this point.

[csgordos]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/orioles-rockies-trade-jeremy-guthrie-jason-hammel/

Hammel has potential, Guthrie doesn't and we can find a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher for less and likely have a few on our roster already.

I wasn't asking about Hammel's vs. Guts. I was asking why you think Hammel's vs. Floyd?

[crawjo]

The 2010 Hammel is similar to Floyd, I think, but not the 2011 version.

[JTrea81]

I wasn't asking about Hammel's vs. Guts. I was asking why you think Hammel's vs. Floyd?

Hammel's seemed to have figured things out:

One odd incident told the story of Hammel's 2011 struggles.

With two outs and the Indians' Grady Sizemore at third base in the third inning of a June 22 game at Cleveland, Hammel went into his pitching motion and forgot what pitch he was throwing. He compounded the mistake by not releasing the ball. The balk proved pivotal in a 4-3 loss.

That error was the extreme, but periodic losses of concentration were a season-long pattern. The late-season time in the bullpen, during which Wright offered advice and challenged him to produce at his talent level, seemed to help Hammel focus.

"The time down in the 'pen really helped me out, working with Jimmy Wright down there," Hammel said. "He's got a grip on the mental part of the game. It was somewhere that I needed to make more strides. Making some changes down there and making some changes between the ears has helped out a lot. "I was focused pre-pitch on exactly what I wanted to do. And then somehow or someway, as I was getting ready to deliver the pitch, my mind was wondering, a lot of what-ifs, instead of just making the pitch and staying with the glove.

"I wish I would've figured it out a lot earlier. The season would have gone a lot different for me. Making some changes between the ears has helped out a lot."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120110&content_id=26308340&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Guthrie was messed up between the ears before he came to the Orioles as a 28 year old as well.

If Hammel has indeed figured it out, this could be an excellent trade and he could indeed be a better starter than Floyd based on Floyd's rising FIP and Hammel's two seasons right at 3.70-3.71.

[atomic]

The 2010 Hammel is similar to Floyd, I think, but not the 2011 version.

His ERA and innings pitched are almost exactly the same between 2010 and 2011. He seems pretty consistent as a below average starting pitcher. He was also the 4th best starter on the Rockies in 2010.

[csgordos]

Hammel's seemed to have figured things out:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120110&content_id=26308340&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

That is what I wanted to find out. Hope you are right. Thanks for providing the information. I honestly, hope you are right. Seems DD is collecting these with guys like Eveland, now Hammels, etc. If he hits on 25% of the guys he signed so far this year, then we have to be better than last year, but if he goes 0-??? it will get ugly quick.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Do you think Hammel will be as good as Guthrie in the AL East?

Yes. I don't think that it is a guarantee, but Guthrie wasn't exactly Palmer against the division.

[BaltimoreTerp]

His ERA and innings pitched are almost exactly the same between 2010 and 2011. He seems pretty consistent as a below average starting pitcher.

Except for the two years as a good starting pitcher. But yeah, otherwise just like that.

[Gurgi]

I personally dont know enough about Hammels to put in an opinion.

I will love to see what happens and what everyone feels about this trade in August.

I would also love for some of the more talented posters to breakdown DD's trade history in Montreal and Boston. What is his trading reputation?

[atomic]

Except for the two years as a good starting pitcher. But yeah, otherwise just like that.

What two years were they? His ERA and innings pitch seem pretty consistent as a starter. He has never had a year like guthrie had in 2008 and 2010.

[JTrea81]

I personally dont know enough about Hammels to put in an opinion.

I will love to see what happens and what everyone feels about this trade in August.

I would also love for some of the more talented posters to breakdown DD's trade history in Montreal and Boston. What is his trading reputation?

Delino DeShields for Pedro Martinez, Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe.

He has had more success with his trades than Andy MacPhail had with his.

Let's not forget Duquette also found Tim Wakefield off the pitching scrap heap with the Pirates.

Here's more:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dan_Duquette