The pieces are in place for a winning team

[Lester Freamon]

IMHO, it's all about Wada and Chen. Assuming both make the rotation, can they stabilize it? Obviously they are not going to pitch/put up numbers like they did in Japan, but how good, or bad, will they be? These guys, if they perform well, will go a long way to possibly making this a .500 ball club.

[wildcard]

I missed where he predicted our record. I got the impression he was saying the individual players have the potential to play well emough to make this a team that wins more than it loses. I think that's a pretty modest assumption, but apparently I'm a minority of one.

Thank you very much. Your reading comprehension is much higher then many on the OH.

[wildcard]

I guess optimism isn't a bad thing, but I'm struggling to figure out why you always do this. By "this" I mean put out this hyperoptimisic take on the team that you kind of present as just as likely as anything else happening.

The reality is that this team's mid-case scenario is 70 or 75 wins. A lot of things would have to go right to get to .500, and it would take a once-in-a-lifetime kind of 1989 luck to really contend. It's a team that is coming off 69 wins and only made a handful of substantial changes.

200 homers and 5+ starters with 10 or more wins? Really? I guess February 21st is the only time for this kind of thing, long before reality has set in.

You are the only one so far to bring up the "c" word in this thread. Remember, you wrote it not me.

[wildcard]

22 infield errors is about the same as 22 singles. The run value of 22 singles is about 10, which is approximately one win. Which means that the 2011 Orioles with 22 fewer infield errors wins about 70 games.

You have not been watching the same team I have. I do not think 22 errors equate to 22 singles. I have watched the big inning occur too often to the O's. There is an error which extends an inning and the pitcher starts to labor because he is throwing too many pitches in an inning. Then the opposing team gets the extra hit and several runs score. Errors are not at all like singles IMO.

[Oriology]

You have not been watching the same team I have. I do not think 22 errors equate to 22 singles. I have watched the big inning occur too often to the O's. There is an error which extends an inning and the pitcher starts to labor because he is throwing too many pitches in an inning. Then the opposing team gets the extra hit and several runs score. Errors are not at all like singles IMO.

I wonder if this occurs at the same rate as pitchers giving up that extra single or BB? You may be right, Drungo may be right...I'd be intrigued to see some stats on this if they existed.

[jackprac]

You have not been watching the same team I have. I do not think 22 errors equate to 22 singles. I have watched the big inning occur too often to the O's. There is an error which extends an inning and the pitcher starts to labor because he is throwing too many pitches in an inning. Then the opposing team gets the extra hit and several runs score. Errors are not at all like singles IMO.[/quote

This +1

[Camden_yardbird]

The pieces are in place for a winning team...

in the NL West. Unfortunately we play in the AL East.

[Basketeer]

I missed where he predicted our record. I got the impression he was saying the individual players have the potential to play well emough to make this a team that wins more than it loses. I think that's a pretty modest assumption, but apparently I'm a minority of one.

I missed where I criticized him for predicting our record. Or even where I mentioned anything about our record.

When the power of that lineup is projected it probably exceed 200 home runs. It not hard to imagine the team putting up 760-770 runs.

I think most (but not all) agree that the talent is on the team to have 5 starters, each that can win in double figures if they get the offense that is stated above.

Those are some pretty big stretches. 10 players are going to hit at least 20 home runs? And the rest of his argument is based on the assumption that we score a lot of runs (through home runs) to bail out the pitching staff and allow them to win double digit games each.

We have a whole lot of ?'s going into this season. That's MY point.

I didn't call him an idiot, I said he's an optimist.

[WV O's]

You have not been watching the same team I have. I do not think 22 errors equate to 22 singles. I have watched the big inning occur too often to the O's. There is an error which extends an inning and the pitcher starts to labor because he is throwing too many pitches in an inning. Then the opposing team gets the extra hit and several runs score. Errors are not at all like singles IMO.

Agreed. 22 errors creates way more than 10 runs. And don't forget about the new emphasis on control pitchers. Take away some of those walks, and some of those errors...the homeruns do not hurt quite as much. I like your optimism, wildcard. Why not? It's not like I will jump off a bridge if I am wrong. My heart could handle another losing season, but it can't take being hopeless. I LOVE this time of year.

[wildcard]

I missed where I criticized him for predicting our record. Or even where I mentioned anything about our record.

Those are some pretty big stretches. 10 players are going to hit at least 20 home runs? We have a whole lot of ?'s going into this season.

I didn't call him an idiot, I said he's an optimist.

10 x 20 is not the only way to get to 200. Reynolds can hit in the mid to high 30s. Hardy showed he can hit mid 20s or higher. Wieters and Jones are over 20 and should improve because they are still in the mid 20's age wise. Reimold could easily put on 20 or more with a 500 at bats. Give Davis 500 at bats in he may be in the mid to high 20's. Nick and Betemit could be in the high teens. Andino, Chavez, Teagarden, Antonelli and Miller could all add 5 or less each. Add them up and the O's are probably over 200.

[Moose Milligan]

This team blows.

[fish113d]

Sure, all that could happen. I think it's fairly likely we get fewer errors than last year, though 22 fewer would be a lot. In addition to having fewer errors, we need to see Reynolds covering more ground at 3B, and better defensive play in LF (where Pie was abysmal last year). Those things could save some runs for our pitchers. But most of the improvement needs to come from the pitchers themselves. They allowed 210 homers, 31 more than any other AL team and 51 more than the league average. That has very little to do with the defense. (I didn't say "nothing" because extra outs means more HR opportunities, but that effect is pretty trivial when you are talking about this big of a gap.)

Hopefully if Reynolds is in better shape, he WILL play a better overall 3B. I see him hitting for a higher average this year w/ less strike outs, but that's just more less hoping than really knowing. However, this team will go as far as the pitching will take it, period, the end.

[wildcard]

This team blows.

Moose, I have watched you root so hard for this team for so long. I hope the O's give you enough reasons to win you back.

[WV O's]

This team blows.

I don't know why, but that cracked me up.

[Basketeer]

10 x 20 is not the only way to get to 200. Reynolds can hit in the mid to high 30s. Hardy showed he can hit mid 20s or higher. Wieters and Jones are over 20 and should improve because they are still in the mid 20's age wise. Reimold could easily put on 20 or more with a 500 at bats. Give Davis 500 at bats in he may be in the mid to high 20's. Nick and Betemit could be in the high teens. Andino, Chavez, Teagarden, Antonelli and Miller could all add 5 or less each. Add them up and the O's are probably over 200.

But will you not agree with me that you're making quite a lot of assumptions?

I'd say 200 is the high-end estimate. Sure, they hit 191 last year, but I don't know how reasonable it is to expect Hardy to hit 30 again, Reimold to stay healthy, and Davis to actually perform well enough to garner 500 ABs. Reynolds is probably the closest to a sure thing.