Dave Cameron: O's rank as worst organization in baseball

[SilentJames]

I'm not going to sit here and argue we should be 25 over 30, I mean big whoop there. But what I think is obvious is that Cameron does not believe that Matusz, et al will recover to be anything and that outside of Schoop, Bundy and Machado the farm system is a complete wasteland.

Its been stated earlier, what if the cavalry DOES rebound significantly, what if the new programs in the MiL's do bear real fruit. What if the structural overhaul works?

Rarely do you see one team plummet like that, especially when the minors are essentially the same as last year plus Bundy. Essentially it appears that the Orioles are being punished for a completely dreadful 2011 and a lackluster winter filled with good behind-the-scenes stuff that was overshadowed by media-grabbing buffoonery.

I just don't see this team being worse than 2011. And I certainly don't think they will be the worst team in baseball. That title is going to be fought over by the White Sox, Athletics. Indians, Mets, Astros, Pirates and Mariners in my opinion.

[Can_of_corn]

They're going to be in the AL West starting in 2013, which has the Rangers and Angels, both of which look pretty set. Not that it's better than the AL East, just that it will also be a tough division.

Also, Fangraphs agrees that O's have more talent and a better outlook (O's ranked better than 'Stros for 2012 and 2013+). But they give Houston the 12th-best baseball ops division, which pushed them ahead. It's a lot of credit for a brand-new front office.

He must be a big Mike Fast fan. Or they got bonus points for not ending up with KLaw.

[TGO]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/organizational-rankings-6-seattle/

From their "methodology" post this year:

Finally, we’re auctioning off the #6 spot on the list*. After the Mariners in 2010 and the Twins last year, we now see that placing sixth on this list is a near guarantee of epic failure, so if there’s a team that you’d like to see crash and burn in 2012, simply send us a large sum of money along with the franchise that you’d like to sabotage. The largest donor of the day will get to ruin the organization of his choice.

*Okay, we’re not really doing this. But we thought about it. Maybe next year.

[Frobby]

Houston has a much better shot at contending quicker than the O's do.

Even if you want to say we are more talented top to bottom(which I do believe), they still don't play in our division.

To me, the quality of competition in our division has nothing to do with how good of an organization we are or aren't. But I don't really have any argument with the assessment that we are near the bottom of the pack as an organization. Hopefully, next year the front office will have earned some respect and the overall ranking will be higher.

[El Gordo]

Houston has a much better shot at contending quicker than the O's do.

Even if you want to say we are more talented top to bottom(which I do believe), they still don't play in our division.

In the AL West? No worse maybe, I doubt much better.

[Lucky Jim]

From their "methodology" post this year:

One of the real issues with articles like this is that they merely pretend to a kind of empiricism, and then on closer inspection are revealed to be largely the vehicle for subjective FO preferences. So, in 2010, the Mariners ride their (no, really, awesome!) FO to a No. 6 ranking, even though their current and future talent don't warrant it. This year, the O's have better current and future talent than the 'Stros, and yet...the subjective analysis of a FO that has yet to perform undoes all of that?

I'm once again put in the position of defending a FO (DD/O's) that I frankly don't agree w/ a whole lot and in which I have marginal confidence.

[PaulFolk]

I'm not going to sit here and argue we should be 25 over 30, I mean big whoop there. But what I think is obvious is that Cameron does not believe that Matusz, et al will recover to be anything and that outside of Schoop, Bundy and Machado the farm system is a complete wasteland.

Its been stated earlier, what if the cavalry DOES rebound significantly, what if the new programs in the MiL's do bear real fruit. What if the structural overhaul works?

That's a lot of "what ifs." You could do the same thing for any team.

If all those "what ifs" come true for the Orioles, then I'm sure they'll be ranked much higher next year. But for this year, you can't just assume or guess that those things will happen. The Orioles need to prove it first.

[Sports Guy]

To me, the quality of competition in our division has nothing to do with how good of an organization we are or aren't. But I don't really have any argument with the assessment that we are near the bottom of the pack as an organization. Hopefully, next year the front office will have earned some respect and the overall ranking will be higher.

Of course not...but in this ranking, he talks about outlook...Obviously, the division comes into play there.

In terms of the organization themselves...The Orioles are 31st in all of MLB.

[Sports Guy]

In the AL West? No worse maybe, I doubt much better.

Its definitely harder than the NLC but its easier than the ALE.

[SilentJames]

That's a lot of "what ifs." You could do the same thing for any team.

If all those "what ifs" come true for the Orioles, then I'm sure they'll be ranked much higher next year. But for this year, you can't just assume or guess that those things will happen. The Orioles need to prove it first.

It is a lot of what ifs and you can't assume that it will all come to pass. But it is equally unfair to assume that NONE of them will come to pass either.

[Sports Guy]

It is a lot of what ifs and you can't assume that it will all come to pass. But it is equally unfair to assume that NONE of them will come to pass either.

There is no reason to put a may be in a ranking like this.

He is ranking exactly what has happened and what he sees.

[Say O!]

I frankly feel better about the team's ability to contend in 2014 than any other O's team since late 90's.

If Bundy and Machado continue to progress at a rapid pace, 2014 could be a very interesting year with Wieters, Markakis, Hardy, young pitching. Keep Jones and supplement that with another good offensive player....I think that team could push for one of the wild card spots.

NYY will be suffering through aging decisions with ARod, Jeter. BOS needs to find some pitching and I think Youk will be done around then.

[isestrex]

Fair enough. I can't argue much w/ the factual statements (though the drop-off is after Schoop, not Machado). It's a pretty narrow analysis full of supposition masking as certainty, but at the same time, the organization has done little to promote confidence.

That said, Cameron's a joke. If, in the process of winning, we get to make him look silly, all the better.

I'm not a big Dave Cameron fan but this seems completely out of left field. What's wrong with his writing?

I found his analysis of the Orioles organization to be spot on and extremely consistent with what every other smart baseball mind in America has been saying.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not a big Dave Cameron fan but this seems completely out of left field. What's wrong with his writing?

I found his analysis of the Orioles organization to be spot on and extremely consistent with what every other smart baseball mind in America has been saying.

I've stated it elsewhere in the thread.

[Lucky Jim]

There is no reason to put a may be in a ranking like this.

He is ranking exactly what has happened and what he sees.

I think you need to be honest about the stability/certainty of your inputs. There's nothing in these analyses that functions like a "confidence interval," and I think it needs it.