If available, how would you feel about the O's drafting Giolito at #4?

[ChaosLex]

Before his injury, he had a decent chance of going #1 in this year's draft. I know Stotle has mentioned previously that he thinks he'll opt to go to UCLA. Allstar is big on this kid, and seriously, what's not to like?

If (keyword) health, imagine a future of Bundy/Giolito, not to mention Matusz, Britton, etc. Barring any injuries, that could become the best staff in the AL East, IMO.

Anyway, how would you feel about drafting Giolito at #4?

[waroriole]

I'd be a little apprehensive given his injury, but I don't know enough to have an informed opinion. Depending on where he ranks as a prospect, we could have 3 Top 10-15 guys next year. That helps a thin system a lot.

[eb45]

Definitely for it, but with reservations regarding signability. I think he'd sign for top five money, though.

[Stotle]

I wouldn't have an issue with it, but he isn't likely to be a fast riser -- will need lots of reps, will need to be monitored because of this injury this spring, and is still figuring out how to get everything working together w/r/t his motion. Special arm, but lots of work to do, to. Probably wouldn't be my choice, but primarily because I'd feel the need to really watch his workload for the first 18 months, and I like a couple other players enough that I'd probably rather sign them for less and pick up some more talent later on.

[Stotle]

I'd be a little apprehensive given his injury, but I don't know enough to have an informed opinion. Depending on where he ranks as a prospect, we could have 3 Top 10-15 guys next year. That helps a thin system a lot.

He won't be a top 15 prospect -- maybe top 50, considering he really didn't throw this spring. He could certainly climb the ranks, though.

[allstar1579]

He won't be a top 15 prospect -- maybe top 50, considering he really didn't throw this spring. He could certainly climb the ranks, though.

Yeah I figured he'd be 50-100 but have some helium if he throws some pro innings this season.

[baltfan]

If he is picked and offered top 5 money, he would be silly to turn it down. The guy just got injured. That should make him aware how fragile this all is.

[Stotle]

If he is picked and offered top 5 money, he would be silly to turn it down. The guy just got injured. That should make him aware how fragile this all is.

But that's not really the full story, right? I mean, he was shut down for precautionary purposes, but there was no red-flag-worthy structural issues.

And why top 5 money?

1:5 is awarded a $3.5 MM pool amount. What separates that from the $3.25 MM amount awarded for 1:6.

Conversely, the alotments up top are significantly higher:

1:1 - $7.2 MM

1:2 - $6.2 MM

1:3 - $5.2 MM

1:4 - $4.2 MM

He could go seven picks later than #5 and theoretically lose out on $1 MM. He only has to go one spot higher to make $700K more, and two spots higher to make $1.7 MM more. For someone that throws in the upper-90s, has a good body, and a spot at a school that has a good recent history with pitchers, I don't think it's as simple as "Top 5 money and he should sign". Depending on other factors, I'd assume his "number" is pretty darn close to $4.5 MM.

[allstar1579]

But that's not really the full story, right? I mean, he was shut down for precautionary purposes, but there was no red-flag-worthy structural issues.

And why top 5 money?

1:5 is awarded a $3.5 MM pool amount. What separates that from the $3.25 MM amount awarded for 1:6.

Conversely, the alotments up top are significantly higher:

1:1 - $7.2 MM

1:2 - $6.2 MM

1:3 - $5.2 MM

1:4 - $4.2 MM

He could go seven picks later than #5 and theoretically lose out on $1 MM. He only has to go one spot higher to make $700K more, and two spots higher to make $1.7 MM more. For someone that throws in the upper-90s, has a good body, and a spot at a school that has a good recent history with pitchers, I don't think it's as simple as "Top 5 money and he should sign". Depending on other factors, I'd assume his "number" is pretty darn close to $4.5 MM.

So you think if he goes 3rd he signs?

I know his dad has been locked in on UCLA since the injury really, but my gut says it's posturing and he'd sign at the right spot. Like you said, it's a $3m difference from 1-4, and he'd be the early favorite for #1 overall when he comes out. Tough for me because I really like him, and since this is the first year of the new CBA I'm expecting more non-signs than normal.

[Stotle]

So you think if he goes 3rd he signs?

I know his dad has been locked in on UCLA since the injury really, but my gut says it's posturing and he'd sign at the right spot. Like you said, it's a $3m difference from 1-4, and he'd be the early favorite for #1 overall when he comes out. Tough for me because I really like him, and since this is the first year of the new CBA I'm expecting more non-signs than normal.

I think it likely comes down to non-baseball factors.

On the surface, I think there's little left to gain if he can get $5 MM. If the best he can get is $3.5 MM or so, I think the chance at $3 MM more might be worth the risk that he loses money.

[allstar1579]

I think it likely comes down to non-baseball factors.

On the surface, I think there's little left to gain if he can get $5 MM. If the best he can get is $3.5 MM or so, I think the chance at $3 MM more might be worth the risk that he loses money.

Makes sense. Do you know if MLB places monetary value on perks to contracts? Like if teams can find extra things to put in their contracts like travel for their parents or cars or something that might not count against the bonus amounts? I'm just waiting for the loophole that Boras is going to find on this one.

[Stotle]

Makes sense. Do you know if MLB places monetary value on perks to contracts? Like if teams can find extra things to put in their contracts like travel for their parents or cars or something that might not count against the bonus amounts? I'm just waiting for the loophole that Boras is going to find on this one.

Nope -- as far as I know you can't add "perks". There are rules for college money, and compensation for 2-sport stars (as far as how the payout works), but that's about it.

[tilgaham]

But that's not really the full story, right? I mean, he was shut down for precautionary purposes, but there was no red-flag-worthy structural issues.

And why top 5 money?

1:5 is awarded a $3.5 MM pool amount. What separates that from the $3.25 MM amount awarded for 1:6.

Conversely, the alotments up top are significantly higher:

1:1 - $7.2 MM

1:2 - $6.2 MM

1:3 - $5.2 MM

1:4 - $4.2 MM

He could go seven picks later than #5 and theoretically lose out on $1 MM. He only has to go one spot higher to make $700K more, and two spots higher to make $1.7 MM more. For someone that throws in the upper-90s, has a good body, and a spot at a school that has a good recent history with pitchers, I don't think it's as simple as "Top 5 money and he should sign". Depending on other factors, I'd assume his "number" is pretty darn close to $4.5 MM.

Remind us how this works again. If Houston doesn't spend their 7.2MM, can they use it later on?

[Stotle]

Remind us how this works again. If Houston doesn't spend their 7.2MM, can they use it later on?

Yes. As long as you sign the player, you get whatever is left over from your allotted amount.